The Caravan Effect

Stacey Abrams, Democratic candidate for Governor of Georgia, talked about how the “blue wave” that she predicts will sweep across the nation in the upcoming midterm lwill include “those who are documented and undocumented.”  Although Abrams probably did not mean to say that, her Freudian slip may have accidentally revealed the Democrats’ long-term plan for securing electoral victories at the state and national level.

When talking about the “Kanye effect” in my previous blog post, I discussed an interactive map put together by The New York Times called “Presidential Math: Demographics and Immigration Reform.”  The Times, in collaboration with the political website “Five Thirty-Eight” put together the interactive map with the 2012 Presidential election in the rearview mirror and amidst an immigration debate taking place on Capitol Hill in the spring of 2013. 

The interactive map contained the actual electoral map for 2012 Presidential Election as well as prospective electoral maps for the four subsequent Presidential elections, which had yet to take place.  The subsequent maps for 2016, 2020, and 2024 contained an increase in the Democratic share of the popular vote by 0.4 percentage points in each election until the 2028 Presidential Election, when the full effect of the proposed amnesty bill would have taken place.  At that point, the Democratic share of the popular vote would have increased by half a percentage point from the 2024 Presidential Election.

The electoral maps assumed a steady population growth rate of three percent among Hispanic Americans, 3.5 percent among Asian-Americans, one percent among African-Americans and half a percentage point among whites, whose low birth rates come as a result of buying into third-wave feminism.  The maps also assumed that the racial distribution of illegal immigrants stood at 80 percent Hispanic, 11 percent Asian, five percent white, and two percent each black and “other.”  The hypothetical election maps for the four subsequent Presidential elections assume that 50 percent of “unauthorized immigrants” will become citizens and that 50 percent of new citizens will vote. 

As the Democrats have found out the hard way in the wake of the 2016 Presidential Election, the popular vote does not matter at all.  It all comes down to the Electoral College.  The proposed Electoral map for the 2016 Presidential Election featured no change in the number of electoral votes from 2012, where the Democrats received 332 electoral votes to the Republicans’ 206.  The number of electoral votes mysteriously increases to 334 in 2020 despite the fact that the new electoral map as a result of the 2020 Census will not take effect until the 2024 Presidential Election.  According to the proposed electoral maps, demographic changes as a result of “immigration reform” will allow North Carolina to flip into the Democratic column beginning with the 2024 Presidential Election. 

The maps for 2024 and 2028 do not take into account the 2020 Census, which will likely give several states in the south and west more representation in Congress as a result of higher population growth as states in the Midwest and the northeast continue to hollow out.  Therefore, the electoral vote totals for the 2024 and 2028 Presidential elections does not reflect the actual number of electoral votes awarded to each state following the 2020 Census.    

Should the Democrats’ dreams come true and 100 percent of unauthorized immigrants become citizens and 100 percent of the new citizens show up to vote, that would also enable the Democrats to win Arizona, giving them a grand total of 360 electoral votes under the electoral map based on the 2010 Census; probably more in the electoral map based on the 2020 Census, where Arizona and North Carolina would likely gain seats in Congress. 

Ultimately, the attempt of the Democrats and a handful of Republicans to push through “comprehensive immigration reform” in 2013 failed.  In spite of this, members of both parties did not seem to get the message sent by the voters in the 2016 Presidential election, who chose President Trump as their President largely because of his tough talk on illegal immigration and his promise to build a wall on the southern border with Mexico.  Left-wing states have thumbed their nose at Federal immigration law, rolling out the red carpet for illegal immigrants by giving them universal healthcare, taxpayer-funded abortions, drivers’ licenses, and in some cases, allowing them to vote in local elections.

On the national level, politicians in both parties remain obsessed with providing legal status to the group of illegal immigrants shielded by President Obama as part of his executive order known as “DACA.”  President Trump has offered to provide a pathway to citizenship for more than double the number of illegal immigrants protected by DACA in exchange for a border wall and reforms to the legal immigration system such as an end to chain migration and the diversity lottery. Heading into the 2018 election, the Democrats have made it clear that they will not budge when it comes to their opposition to the border wall. The absence of a border wall, in addition to the promise of an amnesty for DACA “kids,” led to a large number of family units, some real and some fake, crossing the border.  The judicial branch has become the biggest enabler of a surge at the southern border (see “Flores Settlement” and “Judge Dolly Gee.”)

With three weeks to go until Election Day, another “caravan” of economic migrants from Honduras has begun making its way towards the United States’ southern border wihth Mexico.  Although when most people hear the word “caravan,” they probably think of the Dodge that typically holds around eight people. This “caravan” consists of thousands of migrants from impoverished and crime-infested countries in Central America who hope to claim asylum as a result of credible fear and persecution, while, in reality, many of them simply want to come to the United States for economic reasons. The left wants to portray the members of the “caravan” as hardworking individuals who want to become part of the American dream, unfortunately for them, a group of migrants hoisting the Honduran flag really calls into question the sincerity of those pushing the “melting pot” narrative.    

After watching how the media bullied the Trump administration into cutting back on its “zero-tolerance” immigration policy that led to many migrants who came to the United States earlier this year to stay in the country, a new group of migrants got the message loud and clear.  The absence of a wall in addition to an accompanying overhaul of America’s immigration and asylum laws have effectively rolled out the welcome mat for people to make the treacherous journey. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

For the first time in my adult life, it looks like Mexico may actually act in the United States’s interest.  Mexico has announced that it will work with the United Nations to establish shelters on the country’s southern border with Guatemala.  At these shelters, officials from the UN’s Office of the High Commission on Refugees will help Mexico review asylum claims and will send individuals without valid asylum claims home. President Trump had previously promised to send the military to secure the southern border in the event that Mexico declined to work with the United States.  In addition, the President previously suggested cutting off foreign aid to the countries of Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador. Liberals decried President Trump’s suggestion as a moral atrocity, arguing that cutting off foreign aid to these countries, which definitely fit the description of sh**holes, will only lead to more crime and thus more refugees; imagining that these governments have used the money wisely in the past.    

Many in the United States, especially those on the left, whose desire for power guises as compassion, argue that the United States, as a “rich” country, has a moral obligation to help those from less fortunate countries.  While the United States does have pockets of wealth in Silicon Valley, the Hamptons, and Malibu, the country also has a large number of disadvantaged people in the inner cities and across Appalachia.  To those who haven’t paid much attention to the news in the past month or so, two major hurricanes have turned the lives of several hardworking Americans living in the southeast upside down.  Many living out west, who haven’t had to watch their homes get destroyed by storm surge and high winds, have lost their homes to ravenous wildfires.  A country with a finite amount of resources has an obligation to help these people who live within its borders before it can consider admitting a whole new group of immigrants into the country, many of whom will end up on welfare.  As Ann Coulter pointed out, “if you come to America and immediately go on welfare, by definition, you are not a desirable immigrant. Except as a voter for the Democratic Party.” 


The left has decided to willfully ignore the wisdom of Milton Friedman, who prophesied that “it’s just obvious that you can’t have free immigration and a welfare estate.”  Many in the media and on the left like to talk about how immigration has served as the backbone of American prosperity.  These people fail to note that many of the immigrants who came to the United States at the time of the Industrial Revolution at home and the potato famine and the rise of Communism abroad came at a time when America had not yet developed a welfare state.  If immigrants wanted to succeed in America, they would have to do so either on their own or with the help of relatives already living in the United States; both political parties still believed in the idea of self-reliance.  Half of the equation changed following the Great Depression, when America first instituted the framework of a welfare state.  However, by the time Congress began passing the social programs associated with the New Deal, the State Department had drastically reduced immigration levels as a result of the Great Depression. That changed in 1965, when the current immigration system became the law of the land. At around the same time, the Great Society programs massively expanded the welfare state.   

As President Trump pointed out during a recent rally in Montana, “This will be an election of Kavanaugh, the caravan, law and order, and common sense.”  But his vision will only become reality if enough hardworking and patriotic Americans in the silent majority get out and vote on November 6^th.