It's Time For Another Fire Pelosi Bus Tour

Roughly a decade ago, Michael Steele, then the Chairman of the Republican National Committee, spearheaded a “Fire Pelosi” bus tour ahead of the 2010 midterm elections.  Republicans had hit rock bottom following the 2008 Presidential election, which culminated with President Obama capturing nearly 370 electoral votes, Democrats obtaining a filibuster-proof supermajority in the Senate, and an increased majority in the House of Representatives.  The “Fire Pelosi” bus tour, which lasted for a month and a half, did not exclusively stop in competitive districts and states and hoped to generate enthusiasm among the Republican base in the contiguous 48 states.

To a degree, the “Fire Pelosi” bus tour paid off.  On Election Day 2010, the American people decided to fire Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House of Representatives by giving Republicans a net gain of 63 seats; more than enough to retake the House majority.  Unfortunately, these coattails did not prove strong enough to allow Republicans to pick up the Senate.  While they picked up six Senate seats, the Democrats’ success in the Senate elections of 2006 and 2008 proved too much for Republicans to overcome.

Eight years later, the American people foolishly decided to give Pelosi back the Speaker’s gavel.  A lot has changed in the past decade.  While her party has always had a radical position on abortion, at least in my lifetime, they now have radical position when it comes to immigration; as demonstrated by the Speaker’s refusal to allocate money for a border wall that Democrats have voted for many times in the past.  Even though Michael Steele has moved onto bigger and better things, at least in the eyes of the mainstream media, by emerging as one of the fiercest Anti-Trump critics in the Republican Party, the Republican Party desperately needs to embark on another “Fire Pelosi” bus tour.

Republicans definitely have a lot of challenges ahead in 2020.  Unlike in 2010, where they only had to worry about picking up seats in the legislative branch, Republicans have to focus on making sure President Trump wins the 2020 Presidential Election, maintaining control of the United States Senate, and retaking control of the House of Representatives.

In order for Republicans to declare victory in Operation “Fire Pelosi,” Republicans need to pick up at least 18 seats in the House of Representatives.  Democrats currently represent 31 seats carried by President Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election.  So, Republicans could retake the House simply by sweeping all of those seats.  However, President Trump might not carry all of the seats he carried in 2016 in 2020 and he may actually manage to win some seats in 2020 that he came close to winning in 2016.

As of right now, it looks like Republicans have a difficult, but not impossible path to the magic number of 218 needed to “Fire Pelosi.”  The Cook Political Report’s most recent ratings for all 435 House seats list 16 Democratic-held seats as toss-ups; two shy of the 18 needed to take control.  The Center For Politics at the University of Virginia has a slightly less optimistic outlook for Republicans, with only ten Democratic-held seats in the tossup category; meaning that Republicans would have to pick off a majority of the seats rated as “leans Democratic,” in addition to holding their own in their own competitive seats in order to win back the House.  The website Inside Elections provides the least optimistic outlook for Republicans’ prospects of firing Pelosi; listing only seven Democratic-held seats as toss-ups. According to the ratings at Inside Elections, Republicans would need to sweep the toss-up seats and the seats rated as “tilt Democratic” in addition to capturing at least one seat rated as “lean Democratic.”

So, what should the “Fire Pelosi” bus tour look like?  Well, the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has released a list of the seats it intends to target in 2020 while the Democrats have listed 44 seats that they view as most endangered.  I took these lists into account, as well as the Presidential vote margin in each district, the incumbent Democrat’s margin of victory in 2018, and the aforementioned race ratings compiled by The Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and the University of Virginia Center for Politics, when compiling the following list of districts the Fire Pelosi Bus Tour should make sure to stop in.  Bolded and underlined districts are located in states with competitive Senate and Presidential races while bolded districts only have a competitive Presidential contest.

 

Seat	Trump margin in 2016	D margin in 2018	RCCC	DCCC	Cook	IE	UVA Center for Politics	Priority
AZ-1	+1.1	+7.6	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Medium
AZ-2	-4.9	+9.4	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Low
CA-10	-3.0	+4.6	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	Medium
CA-21	-15.5	+0.8	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Likely D	Likely D	Low
CA-25	-6.7	+8.8	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	Low
CA-39	-8.6	+3.2	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	Low
CA-45	-5.4	+4.2	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Likely D	Likely D	Low
CA-48	-1.7	+7.2	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Medium
CA-49	-7.5	+12.8	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Low
CO-6	-8.9	+11.2	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Low
CT-2	-2.9	+26.8	No	No	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Medium
CT-5	-4.1	+11.8	No	Yes	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Medium
FL-7	-7.3	+15.4	Yes	No	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Low
FL-13	-3.2	+15.2	Yes	No	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Medium
FL-26	-16.3	+1.8	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Safe D	Leans D	Low
FL-27	-19.6	+6.0	Yes	No	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Low
GA-6	+1.5	+1.0	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tilt D	Leans D	Medium
IA-1	+3.5	+5.1	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	High
IA-2	+4.1	+12.2	Yes	No	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	High
IA-3	+3.5	+2.1	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tossup	Leans D	High
IL-6	-7.0	+7.2	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D	Low
IL-14	+3.9	+5.0	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tossup	Leans D	Medium
IL-17	+0.7	+24.2	Yes	No	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	High
KS-3	-1.2	+9.7	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D	Low
ME-2	+10.3	+1.0	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	High
MI-5	-4.2	+24.4	No	No	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Medium
MI-8	+6.7	+3.8	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tilt D	Leans D	High
MI-9	-7.8	+22.8	No	No	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Low
MI-11	+4.4	+6.6	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D	Medium
MN-2	+1.2	+5.6	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Medium
MN-3	-9.4	+11.4	Yes	No	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Low
MN-7	+30.8	+4.2	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	High
NV-3	+1.0	+9.1	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D	Medium
NV-4	-4.9	+8.2	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Low
NH-1	+1.6	+8.6	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Leans D	Medium
NH-2	-2.4	+13.4	No	No	Safe D	Safe D	Likely D	Medium
NJ-2	+4.6	+7.7	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Tilt D	Leans D	High
NJ-3	+6.2	+1.3	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	High
NJ-5	+1.1	+13.7	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Low
NJ-7	-1.1	+5.0	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D	Low
NJ-11	+0.9	+14.7	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Low
NM-2	+10.2	+1.8	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	High
NY-11	+9.8	+6.4	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	High
NY-18	+1.9	+10.8	Yes	No	Likely D	Safe D	Likely D	Medium
NY-19	+6.8	+3.1	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tilt D	Tossup	High
NY-22	+15.5	+0.8	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	High
OH-13	-6.5	+22.0	No	No	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Medium
OK-5	+13.4	+1.4	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	High
OR-4	-0.1	+15.1	Yes	No	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Medium
OR-5	-4.2	+13.2	No	No	Safe D	Safe D	Safe D	Low
PA-7	-1.1	+10.0	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D	Medium
PA-8	+9.5	+9.2	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Likely D	Leans D	High
PA-17	+2.5	+12.6	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Likely D	Safe D	Medium
SC-1	+13.1	+1.4	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	High
TX-7	-1.4	+5.0	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D	Medium
TX-32	-1.9	+6.5	Yes	Yes	Leans D	Leans D	Likely D	Medium
UT-4	+6.7	+0.2	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tossup	Tossup	High
VA-2	+3.4	+2.2	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tilt D	Leans D	High
VA-7	+6.5	+2.0	Yes	Yes	Tossup	Tilt D	Leans D	High
VA-10	-10.0	+12.4	Yes	No	Likely D	Safe D	Safe D	Low
WA-8	-3.0	+4.8	Yes	Yes	Likely D	Safe D	Leans D	Low
WI-3	+4.5	+19.4	Yes	No	Likely D	Likely D	Likely D	High

 

Keeping all that in mind, ihere’s a list of stops the bus tour should definitely consider making in the fall of 2020.  The list also includes cities in districts where Republicans find themselves on the defensive in 2020:

1.      Bangor, ME

2.      Concord, NH

3.      Manchester, NH

4.      New London, CT

5.      Danbury, CT

6.      Newburgh, NY

7.      Staten Island, NY

8.      Oyster Bay, NY

9.      Brookhaven, NY

10.  Toms River, NJ

11.  Atlantic City, NJ

12.  Scranton, PA

13.  Hershey, PA

14.  Chester, VA

15.  Virginia Beach, VA

16.  Raleigh, NC

17.  Greensboro, NC

18.  Charlotte, NC

19.  Hilton Head, SC

20.  Norcross, GA

21.  Marietta, GA

22.  Port St. Lucie, FL

23.  Lakeland, FL

24.  Clearwater, FL

25.  Oklahoma City, OK

26.  Fort Hood, TX

27.  Sugar Land, TX

28.  Austin, TX

29.  Las Cruces, NM

30.  Prescott, AZ

31.  Scottsdale, AZ

32.  Santee, CA

33.  Huntington Beach, CA

34.  Modesto, CA

35.  Eugene, OR

36.  Vancouver, WA

37.  Las Vegas, NV

38.  Salt Lake City, UT

39.  Pueblo, CO

40.  Papillion, NE

41.  Des Moines, IA

42.  Sioux City, IA

43.  Moorhead, MN

44.  Wabasha, MN

45.  Rochester, MN

46.  Stevens Point, WI

47.  Cedar Rapids, IA

48.  Davenport, IA

49.  Rock Island, IL

50.  Naperville, IL

51.  Bloomington, IL

52.  Carmel, IN

53.  St. Joseph, MI

54.  Flint, MI

55.  Lansing, MI

56.  Rochester Hills, MI

57.  Youngstown, OH

58.  Zanesville, OH

59.  Cincinnati, OH

60.  Frankfort, KY

61.  Beaver, PA

62.  Grove City, PA

63.  Geneseo, NY

64.  Binghamton, NY

65.  Troy, NY

 

Hopefully, the folks at the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee as well as the people at the Republican National Committee will take my advice and put together a “fire Pelosi” bus tour.  As long as Pelosi remains Speaker, nothing but obstruction and investigation will come from the House of Representatives.  In the meantime, Republicans should begin having a serious conversation about the meaning of 21^st century conservatism; specifically whether it means going along to get along by passing funding bills that do not even come close to lining up with conservative priorities in order to avoid a government shutdown or taking a page from the Democratic playbook by fighting for the principles we care about at all costs.  If Republicans want to win back the House in 2020 or remain a viable party nationwide, they will have to elect candidates who subscribe to the latter option.