Election 2020: Polls Don't Mean Everything

The media have obsessed about a new Morning Consult poll that found President Trump at the lowest net approval rating of his presidency.  Following the release of the Mueller report, the weekly tracking poll pegged President Trump’s net approval of -18 percent; even lower than his previous low points, which followed his Charlottesville comments and the partial government shutdown.  The Morning Consult poll found that 39 percent of voters approve of President Trump’s performance while 57 percent disapprove. 

Let’s take a look at the polls of a roughly comparable time in American history.  In February 1991, Gallup pegged President George H.W. Bush’s approval rating at 89 percent.  Had a presidential election occurred that month, Bush likely would have destroyed his Democratic rival in the biggest electoral landslide in American history.  The low point of George H.W. Bush’s presidency, in terms of approval rating, came much closer to the actual Presidential election; in July 1992. At that time, President Bush had an approval rating of 29 percent; far worse than President Trump’s current approval rating as identified by the Morning Consult.  Earlier in the year, a poll found an American public so dissatisfied with the status quo that they favored an independent candidate, Ross Perot, over the two major party candidates.  As Election Day 1992 went into the history books, the poll taken in February 1991 meant absolutely nothing.  Democrat Bill Clinton defeated President Bush, carrying 32 states and capturing 43 percent of the vote to Bush’s 38 percent.

So guess what?  The poll from the Morning Consult means absolutely nothing when it comes to President Trump’s re-election campaign.  He still has 18 months to turn things around.  The Russia thing will eventually burn off like a morning fog; unless the Democrats decide to go down the impeachment road. In that case, President Trump might record the highest approval rating of his presidency.  In December 1998, at the height of the Bill Clinton impeachment saga, the President had a 73 percent approval rating.  President Trump might not ever record an approval rating that high but an overreach by Congressional Democrats should at least push President Trump’s net approval rating into positive territory.

In the same way President Trump will probably not achieve an approval rating of 73 percent or match President George W. Bush’s record high approval rating of 90 percent, it comes across as hard to believe that the President’s approval rating will crater to the record low approval ratings of other Presidents, including the Bushes.  Presidents Harry Truman, George W. Bush, and Richard Nixon had record low approval ratings in the low to mid 20s.  President Trump has a solid enough base where he should not have to worry about his approval ratings ever sinking that low.

While both Bushes and many other Presidents have had bipolar approval ratings, the two most recent people to occupy the Oval Office have had much more stable approval ratings.  President Obama’s approval rating never exceeded 69 percent; indicating that a large part of the country remained steadfastly opposed to him throughout his presidency.  President Obama’s approval rating never dropped below 38 percent, indicating that he had a strong “base” the same way President Trump does.  Similarly, President Trump’s approval rating has not dropped below the mid and upper 30s, as a result of his strong base that will support him through thick and thin because they believe in the Make America Great Again agenda. 

CNN’s Chris Cuomo got a certain amount of glee out of showing a chart demonstrating that President Trump’s approval rating has rarely reached positive territory; in contrast to other Presidents.  News flash: we live in a polarized country.  Nearly everything has become a political issue.  Case and point: The American flag and the national anthem, two symbols of national unity, have become divisive symbols. A handful of residents of Laguna Beach, California, have complained about the decoration of the word “Police” on the city’s police cars with the colors of the American flag.  According to a Fox News article on the subject, “some residents” see the presence of the flag colors on the cars as “too aggressive” and “militaristic,” worrying about “possibly offending immigrants.”  Fortunately, the Laguna Beach City Council decided not to bow to the liberal mob.  As supporters of old glory descended on the city council meeting and demonstrated near-unanimous support for keeping the logo, the Laguna Beach City Council voted 4-1 to keep the new design.  Strangely, many of the people so horrified by the idea of the Laguna Beach police cars incorporating the American flag logo would probably have no problem with the fact that the caravans full of “asylum seekers” have proudly waved the Honduran flag. 

Liberal distaste of the American flag has bled over into the national anthem.  In an effort to protest police brutality, San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick began to take a knee during the national anthem at football games.  Kaepernick made it perfectly clear how he felt about the police when he wore socks depicting them as pigs. President Trump weighed in on the anthem kneeling debate, which led more players to take a knee during the National Anthem.  Conversely, supporters of the flag and the National Anthem began the #BoycottNFL movement.    

As a result of the politicization of everything, no President has come close to winning 60 percent of the popular vote in decades and an Electoral College landslide of more than 400 electoral votes has not happened in decades either.  President Trump has become an exceptionally polarizing figure; largely because of the media’s role. 

In addition, approval ratings do not necessarily serve as good predictors of the share of a vote a President would receive should an election take place tomorrow.  For example, even when the Bushes enjoyed approval ratings of 89 and 90 percent, respectively, no one thought that they would end up receiving that share of the vote.  Even if an election took place today, President Trump would receive more than 39 percent of the vote because many Republicans would hold their noses and vote for him to keep a radical socialist from taking power.  The same applies to gubernatorial approval ratings.  Maryland Governor Larry Hogan and Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker, both Republican governors of blue states, have had sky-high approval ratings in the high 60s and low 70s.  Hogan only won re-election with 55 percent of the vote while Baker won a much larger share of the vote in his re-election bid, as nearly two-thirds of Massachusetts voters chose to give him a second term.

Besides, national polling means absolutely nothing when it comes to the outcome of Presidential elections; much to the chagrin of Pete Buttigieg, Goofy Elizabeth, and every other 2020 Democrat who wants to abolish the Electoral College. President Trump could have an underwater approval rating nationwide and still win re-election by carrying the states critical to his victory in 2016.  While President Trump has lackluster approval ratings in most of the key battleground states and trails most of his Democratic challengers in head-to-head matchups, he found himself in a similar position in 2016 and still won.  The final Real Clear Politics average for the Presidential race in Wisconsin gave Crooked Hillary a 6.5 point advantage over Trump.  To paraphrase Ann Coulter, President Trump “did considerably better in the poll taken on Election Day” by becoming the first Republican to win the state since 1984.  Similarly, the final RCP averages found Trump down in Michigan and Pennsylvania; he ended up winning both. 

While polls have ultimately mixed reviews when it comes to picking winners and losers of elections, models and indices have a much higher success rate.  According to the “Time for Change” model, created by Emory University Professor Alan Abramowitz, consistent GDP growth of three percent will guarantee President Trump a second term in the White House.  When projecting the outcome of a Presidential Election with an incumbent running, the model takes into account net approval in June of an election year as well as second quarter GDP growth in the election year.  Even if President Trump has a net approval of -20 points, he would still receive 279 electoral votes if GDP growth in the second quarter of 2020 comes out to three percent; according to the model. The most recent GDP report shows a growth rate of 3.2 percent and as mentioned earlier, President Trump has a net approval rating of around -20 points.  In other words, according to the “Time for Change” model, President Trump would win re-election if it took place today. Should he ever manage to enjoy a net approval of 0 with three percent GDP growth, he would walk away with 328 electoral votes, an improvement on his 2016 electoral college total of 2016. While the model has never accurately predicted the exact number of electoral votes a candidate would receive, it has always correctly predicted the outcome of the election. 

Politico recently profiled another model, TrendMacrolytics, which takes into account growth rates, wages, tax burdens, inflation, and gas prices.  At the time of the article’s publication, the model predicted President Trump would win by a margin of 294 electoral votes; which would amount to an electoral vote total of 416; assuming that a third-party candidate does not manage to capture any electoral votes.  While it seems unlikely, if not downright impossible, that President Trump will reach that number, a good economy may help put him closer to reaching that number than any Republican presidential candidate since 1988.

The Consumer Confidence Index, compiled by the Conference Board, has also done a pretty good job of predicting Presidential winners over the years.  Generally speaking, the higher the Consumer Confidence Index in the October right before the presidential election, the higher the incumbent party’s chance of winning the White House.  In 1972, 1984, 1988, and 1996, the Consumer Confidence Index stood at 100 or higher and the incumbent’s party enjoyed epic electoral landslides.  On the other hand, the Consumer Confidence Index stood below 100 in 1976, 1980, 1992, and 2008.  In each of these cases, the incumbent’s party faced defeat in the Presidential election.  The Consumer Confidence Index currently stands at 129.2, well above the magic number of 100.  

While the polling for President Trump does not look very good at this point, other factors will influence his ability to win re-election besides his favorability; including the economy as well as the favorability of whoever he ends up facing off against in the general election.  As long as the economy remains strong, President Trump should have a mild degree of confidence about his re-election prospects but he should definitely not take the possibility of four more years for granted and continue to fight for every vote. Only 18 months to go until the long-awaited 2020 Presidential Election.