Political Junkie

I have spent my past several blog posts focusing on the state of the House races.   What about the Senate and gubernatorial races? Let’s take a look. In terms of the Senate, Republicans reached a high point on the Real Clear Politics Senate map with no toss-ups about two weeks ago.   At that time, the Real Clear Politics averages found Republicans holding both of their seats in Nevada and Arizona while picking up North Dakota , Missouri , and Florida .   A few days later, Florida switched back to the Democrats; while Republican Mike Braun took the lead in the Real Clear Politics Average in the Indiana Senate race.   With hours between now and the first polls opening, the Real Clear Politics “no toss-up” map predicts that Republicans will see no net change in the number of Senate seats they hold; with wins in Missouri and North Dakota canceled out by Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada .   Based on their latest predictions, it looks like th...

Recently, the University of Virginia Center for Politics laid out a roadmap Democrats could follow in order to take back the House of Representatives.   The road map categorized the seats by competitiveness.   I have laid out a “yellow brick road” that Republicans can follow in order to maintain control of the House of Representatives.   Take a look:   1.       Minimize losses in California .   Republicans have to defend seven Republican-held seats won by Hillary Clinton in the Golden State , which has effectively turned into a one-party state at the state level thanks to fifty years of low-skilled immigration.   While the top-two primary shut Republicans out of the Senate race, a Republican emerged as the second in the gubernatorial race, meaning that conservatives have a reason to come out and vote on Election Day, especially if they want to do away with the gas tax.   Republicans look doomed in California ’s 49 th C...

In my previous two blog posts, I have laid out the best pickup opportunities in the House of Representatives for both Republicans and Democrats.   I would like to slightly revise my list of the top 10 most likely Republican House pickups, in light of a new poll from New Jersey ’s 5 th Congressional district.   An internal poll conducted on behalf of Republican John McCann found McCann trailing incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer by nine points.   A previous internal poll for McCann showed him beating Gottheimer by three points.   Averaging out the two polls would give Gottheimer a lead of three points.   In light of this, I would rate both of the Nevada Congressional districts that I had on my list as slightly more likely pickup opportunities for Republicans and move New Jersey’s 5 th Congressional District to the tenth most likely pickup opportunity for Republicans.   President Trump has a very good approval rating in Nevada considering the fact that...

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, most pundits predict that the Democrats will retake control of the House of Representatives. CNN predicts that the Democrats will pick up 32 seats, eight more than the bare minority needed to retake control of the House of Representatives; assuming that Republicans flip at least one of the districts included on my list of the Top 10 Most Likely Republican House Pickups .   Five Thirty Eight predicts that Democrats have a 6 in 7 chance of retaking control of the House.   Offering a s lightly less optimistic vision for the Democrats, Dave Wassserman of The Cook Political Report predicted that Democrats have a 70 to 75 percent chance of taking the House. If they want to have any chance whatsoever of taking the House, the Democrats will have to sweep the following ten races.   As of right now, they look almost certain to flip at least three seats from red to blue. Republicans probably could manage a...

With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, all of the talking heads have spent most of their time obsessing about just how many seats the Democrats will pick up in the House of Representatives and how big of a “blue wave” will sweep across the United States of America.   While the Democrats definitely have more pickup opportunities in the House than Republicans, the Republicans have a few as well.   Picking up a handful or most of the ten seats listed below may insulate Republicans from the effect of a “blue wave.”   The website Five Thirty-Eight has classified all but two of the seats listed below as “highly competitive” based on its “ Atlas of Redistricting ” but the new map of Pennsylvania districts came out after the creation of the “Atlas of Redistricting,” therefore, the atlas does not contain an accurate description of the current districts.  The “Atlas of Redistricting” labels California ’s 24 th Congressional District as “usually Democratic” ...