Top 10 Closest Congressional Races

In my previous two blog posts, I have laid out the best pickup opportunities in the House of Representatives for both Republicans and Democrats.  I would like to slightly revise my list of the top 10 most likely Republican House pickups, in light of a new poll from New Jersey’s 5^th Congressional district.  An internal poll conducted on behalf of Republican John McCann found McCann trailing incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer by nine points.  A previous internal poll for McCann showed him beating Gottheimer by three points.  Averaging out the two polls would give Gottheimer a lead of three points.  In light of this, I would rate both of the Nevada Congressional districts that I had on my list as slightly more likely pickup opportunities for Republicans and move New Jersey’s 5^th Congressional District to the tenth most likely pickup opportunity for Republicans.  President Trump has a very good approval rating in Nevada considering the fact that he lost the state and it looks increasingly likely that Republican Senator Dean Heller will perform quite well in the state and that should help at least one of the two Republican Congressional candidates running in competitive open seats. 

Moving on, let’s lake a look at the top ten contests that have shaped up as nail-biters that may ultimately end up deciding which party controls the House of Representatives:

1.      Montana at-large: It may come across as a surprise that a Democrat may have a chance to win a Congressional race in Montana but keep in mind that despite voting for President Trump by double digits, Montana still has a Democratic Governor and a Democratic Senator up for re-election this year.  The Democrats felt optimistic about taking the seat’s at-large Congressional district in a special election last year, after incumbent Ryan Zinke resigned to become Secretary of the Interior. Just a day before the special election, audio leaked of Republican candidate Greg Gianforte body slamming Guardian reporter Ben Jacobs.  Unfortunately for the Democrats, this last-minute surprise did not pay off in the way they thought it would, Gianforte still ended up winning the special election; possibly because many Montanans had already cast their ballots.  Ahead of Election Day 2018, a few polls have shown Gianforte losing to his Democratic challenger Kathleen Williams. The University of Montana gave Williams an especially lopsided advantage over Gianforte at the same time it gave Democratic Senator Jon Tester a 24-point lead over his Republican challenger Matt Rosendale.  It seems highly unlikely that Tester (and especially Williams) will win by that much, if they win at all, although Tester looks like he has a better chance of re-election than some of his red state Democrats; especially Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, who trails by 14 points in the Real Clear Politics Average. 

2.      New York 19: President Trump had narrowly carried this seat in 2016 after President Obama carried it in 2012.  Kirsten Gillibrand represented a previous version of this seat before becoming a United States Senator and moving to Long Island; leaving all of her moderate and reasonable principles with her.  Republican John Faso, who got wiped out running against short-lived New York Governor Eliot Spitzer a decade earlier, won this seat for the first time in 2016, succeeding fellow Republican Chris Gibson.  An average of all of the polls taken so far show Democrat Antonio Delgado with an extremely razor-thin lead of 0.14 percentage points. 

3.      West Virginia 3: Based on how the Presidential vote went down, this district should definitely not have a place on this list.  President Trump carried this district with well over 60 percent of the vote as he swept every single county in West Virginia.  However, Democratic candidate Richard Ojeda, has done remarkably well in his bid to succeed Republican Evan Jenkins, who unsuccessfully ran for the Senate and now sits on the West Virginia Supreme Court.  Jenkins first won the seat in 2014, displacing longtime incumbent Nick Rahall.  While the district will probably never, ever vote for a Democratic President in my lifetime, it still gives Democrats a chance further down the ballot.  It supported Jim Justice, the Democratic candidate for Governor, in 2016; who switched parties not long after winning the election.  An average of all of the polls taken so far shows Republican Carol Miller losing to Ojeda by a very small margin of 0.14 points and it would not come as a surprise at all if the district returns to form and chooses to support her on Election Day, even if it supports Manchin for the Senate.

4.      California 48: President Trump narrowly lost this district in 2016, which has consistently supported Republican Presidential candidates for decades. Thanks to our immigration policy, it supported a Democratic Presidential candidate for the first time in a very long time. Incumbent Dana Rohrbacher has served in Congress for a quarter of a century.  Republicans tried and failed to shut out the Democrats in the top-two primary so Rohrbacher will have to face off against a Democrat, Harley Rouda. An average of all the polls taken so far give Rohrbacher an edge of 0.17 percentage points over Rouda.   

5.      Illinois 6: Once again, President Trump narrowly lost this district in 2016.  Most early polls showed incumbent Peter Roskam beating Democrat Sean Casten, although the race has tightened, with Casten leading most polls now.  Casten seems a bit too extreme for a district outside of Silicon Valley or Vermont; he compared President Trump to Osama Bin Laden. Based on an average of six polls taken throughout this election cycle, Roskam trails Casten by about 0.17 points.   

6.      New  Jersey 3: President Trump narrowly carried this district in 2016. While the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act benefitted many Americans across the country, it did not have the same positive effect on blue states such as New Jersey.  The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act put a cap on state and local tax deductions, which hit the very high-tax New Jersey hard. New Jersey residents should vote out the tax-and-spend liberals that dominate the state legislature and replace them with spendthrift conservatives who promise to cut their taxes.  In the meantime, residents of the Garden State will have to pay higher taxes next year; so they may end up punishing MacArthur, who voted for the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, in the short term.  An average of all of the polls taken shows MacArthur leading his Democratic challenger Andy Kim by 0.17 percentage points.  A strong performance in the district by Republican Senate candidate Bob Hugin, who has polled surprisingly well for his longshot effort to unseat scandal-plagued Democratic Senator Bob Menendez in a deep blue state, could help carry MacArthur over the top on Election Day. 

7.      Virginia 7: Of the four competitive districts in Virginia, this district has most loyally supported Republican candidates for Congress for a half a century; and voted Republican in every Presidential Election since at least 1996.  Although the district became slightly more competitive as a result of court-ordered redistricting in 2016, it still supported President Trump.  Congressman Dave Brat, a Tea Party-backed insurgent with America First views on immigration, defeated pro-amnesty incumbent Republican House Majority Leader Eric Cantor in 2014 and has held the seat ever since. He has become one of the Democrats’ top targets as they have become obsessed about “college educated women” turning “suburban districts” like his blue.  A polling average shows Spanberger leading Brat by a very slim margin of 0.4 points.  Brat probably could care less about the polls, since both of the polls leading up the 2014 Republican Primary showed Cantor beating Brat.  The poll on Election Day, the only one that ultimately matters, turned out quite differently.  Cantor got the message sent to him by the voters and resigned before the end of his term.  Unfortunately, not every Republican in Washington learned that their voters had no appetite for “comprehensive immigration reform” without border security.  For Exhibit A in the case highlighting Republican apathy towards border security, look at the non-existent wall on the southern border.  While many Congressional Republicans, especially those who haven’t spent their entire adult lives in Washington, have the Brat-Trump view of immigration, too many Republicans still have the Cantor-Flake view; hence the absence of the “big, beautiful wall.”  

8.      Florida 27: President Trump lost this district by a very large margin to Hillary Clinton, therefore, many Republicans wrote off the race when the incumbent Republican Congresswoman, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, decided to retire.  However, they have reasons for optimism.  Republican candidate Maria Elvira Salazar has very high name ID in the heavily Hispanic district, owing to her time as a journalist on Telemundo.  Averaging out all of the polls gives Salazar a lead of one-half of a percentage point over Shalala. 

9.      California 39:  President Trump lost this district in 2016 but few considered it one of the best pickup opportunities because of the incumbency advantage.  Everything changed when Republican Ed Royce announced his plans not to run for re-election.  At that point, this seat became one of the Democrats’ top targets considering the challenge that parties in power have in defending open seats carried by the opposite party in the most recent Presidential election. Republicans hoped to shut out the Democrats in the top-two primary but that effort ultimately failed, as Democrat Gil Cisneros and Republican Young Kim emerged as the two finalists in the June 5 primary. For a while, it looked like sexual misconduct allegations had put Cisneros on the defensive, but he has rebounded in the polls a bit.  Averaging out all of the polls gives Kim a narrow lead of 0.63 points. 

10.  Texas 32: Many longtime political operatives could not believe that President Trump failed to carry this district, which Mitt Romney carried by double digits just four years earlier. Longtime incumbent Pete Sessions will face off against Democrat Colin Allred.  Taking into account all of the polls this cycle, Allred leads Sessions by 0.75 points.  Republicans definitely have time to close that gap.

 

If Republicans run the table on the districts listed above, then they will have a much higher chance of retaining the House majority.  In my next installment of my pre-election series, I will lay out the yellow brick road for Republicans to follow to retain the House majority; along the same lines of how The University of Virginia Center for Politics laid out a roadmap for Democrats. Following this yellow brick road will enable Republicans to avoid two years of The Wicked Witch of the West, Nancy Pelosi, holding the Speaker’s gavel.