Top 10 Most Likely Republican House Pickups

With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, all of the talking heads have spent most of their time obsessing about just how many seats the Democrats will pick up in the House of Representatives and how big of a “blue wave” will sweep across the United States of America.  While the Democrats definitely have more pickup opportunities in the House than Republicans, the Republicans have a few as well.  Picking up a handful or most of the ten seats listed below may insulate Republicans from the effect of a “blue wave.”  The website Five Thirty-Eight has classified all but two of the seats listed below as “highly competitive” based on its “Atlas of Redistricting” but the new map of Pennsylvania districts came out after the creation of the “Atlas of Redistricting,” therefore, the atlas does not contain an accurate description of the current districts. The “Atlas of Redistricting” labels California’s 24^th Congressional District as “usually Democratic” while it labels Minnesota’s 1^st Congressional District, currently held by a Democrat, as “usually Republican.” Without further ado, take a look at the top ten most likely Republican House pickups for the 2018 election: 

1.      Oregon’s 5^th Congressional District: While all of the pundits have labeled this seat as “Safe” or “Likely” Democratic, an internal poll by Republican candidate Mark Callahan found Callahan beating incumbent Democrat Kurt Schrader by 23 points.  President Trump lost the district by only four points; Hillary did not even manage to capture 50 percent of the vote.  Schrader only won re-election in 2016 with 53 percent of the vote, not a particularly impressive margin for an incumbent. Considering the fact that the Oregon governor’s race looks pretty close, it would not come as a surprise if the Republican nominee carried this district.  Even if the poll overestimates Callahan’s support, the poll found him leading well outside the margin of error; meaning that if every independent voted for Schrader, Callahan would still come out on top.   

2.      Pennsylvania’s 14^th Congressional District serves as the only bright spot for Republicans in the new Pennsylvania map drawn up by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.  It overlaps with much of the former 18^th District in Western Pennsylvania, already a very Republican-leaning district. Democrat Conor Lamb won a special election there earlier this year, the new map drew his map into the newly drawn, much more competitive 17^th District.  President Trump won the new district with more than 60 percent of the vote.  The candidate that Republicans wanted representing them in the special election, State Senator Guy Reschenthaler, ended up winning the Republican nomination for this seat. No polls exist but a victory for Reschenthaler in the double digits seems likely, all of the forecasters have pegged the race either “likely” or “safe” Republican. 

3.      Minnesota’s 1^st Congressional District: This open seat came close to flipping in 2016, to nearly everyone’s surprise.  President Trump carried the district by double digits despite the fact that President Obama had carried it in both of his Presidential elections.  The incumbent Democrat Tim Walz, who only won re-election in 2016 by less than one percentage point, decided to retire and run for Governor; apparently making the calculation that he would have an easier time running statewide where all he has to do is suck up to the Twin Cities.  The 2016 Republican nominee, Jim Hagedorn, looks like the favorite for the fall. An internal poll conducted on Hagedorn’s behalf showed him leading Democratic nominee Dan Feehan by 14 points. A poll released this week by Survey USA showed Feehan beating Hagedorn by two points.  Either way, the pundits have rated this race as a “tossup,” with Real Clear Politics rating it “leans Republican.”

4.      Minnesota’s 8^th Congressional District: This open seat also came very close to flipping in 2016, with Democratic incumbent Rick Nolan nearly losing as President Trump carried the historically Democratic district by double digits.  Nolan, who re-emerged on the national stage in 2012 nearly three decades after leaving Congress, opted not to run for re-election.  President Trump has already done rallies on behalf of Republican candidate Pete Stauber, who leads his Democratic opponent in a New York Times poll by a whopping 15 points. An earlier Times poll and an internal poll conducted on the Democrat’s behalf showed Stauber losing by one percentage point.  That lead seems to have evaporated and a majority of the pundits who make forecasts for House elections have labeled the race “Leans Republican” as Democrats have decided to wave the white flag on this particular district. 

5.      Arizona’s 1^st Congressional District: While most pundits predict that first-term incumbent Tom O’Halleran will keep his seat, remember that first-term incumbents lose their seats at a much higher rate than other incumbents.  President Trump narrowly carried this district, which encompasses a massive amount of land.  Three polls conducted for Republican candidate Wendy Rogers show her leading or tied. 

6.      New Jersey’s 5^th Congressional District: Once again, the pundits consider Josh Gottheimer a favorite to win re-election, with some even labeling his race as “Safe Democratic.”  Gottheimer narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Congressman Scott Garrett as President Trump narrowly carried the district.  An internal poll conducted on behalf of Republican John McCann shows McCann leading by three points, although it does have a large number of undecided voters.  Pundits love to talk about how candidates at the top of the ticket, in this case Senate candidates, can either help or hurt House candidates.  In this case, Republican Senate candidate Bob Hugin could end up carrying the district; as he only trails Democratic Senator Bob Menendez by an average of 7.7 points in the Real Clear Politics average. Menendez’s low approval ratings could drag House candidates further down the ballot, especially in a district where President Trump won.      

7.      Florida’s 7^th Congressional District: Once again, pundits have declared incumbent Democrat Stephanie Murphy a favorite to win re-election. Murphy, another first-termer, narrowly defeated Republican Congressman John Mica in the redrawn district, significantly less Republican than its predecessor.  President Trump narrowly lost the district in 2016.  Murphy will face off against Mike Miller and a poll from St. Pete Polls finds Miller trailing Murphy by only one point. 

8.      California’s 24^th Congressional District: At first glance, Democrats should have absolutely no trouble winning this district.  Hillary Clinton won it with nearly 60 percent of the vote.  Still, the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee included this district on its list of targets.  2016 Republican candidate Justin Fareed will face off in a rematch against first-term incumbent Democrat Salud Carbajal.  An internal poll conducted on behalf of Fareed shows him trailing Carbajal by only one point.  The polls did not accurately predict the race last cycle, with both polls showing Fareed in the lead; he ended up losing by seven percentage points.  If Fareed wants to win this time around, he will have to rely on voters angry about the plastic straw ban and the gas tax to carry him over the finish line.  A strong performance by Republican gubernatorial nominee John Cox in the district may or may not help Fareed. Cox absolutely has to win this district if he wants to have any chance of pulling off an upset.

9.      Nevada’s 3^rd Congressional District: President Trump narrowly carried this open seat in 2016.  The seat became vacant when Congressman Joe Heck decicded to run for the Senate; he ultimately lost his bid.  Democrat Jacky Rosen, dubbed “Wacky Jacky” by President Trump, won the open seat against Republican Danny Tarkanian.  Rosen opted not to run for re-election and instead decided to run for the Senate against incumbent Republican Senator Dean Heller.  Heller now leads in The Real Clear Politics Average after trailing Rosen for months.  If Heller does well statewide, he will probably carry the 3^rd district, which will help Republican candidate Tarkanian, who has decided to run a second time.  A poll by Emerson College showed Heller leading in the Senate race and Tarkanian trailing Democrat Susie Lee by only two points, well within the margin of error.  Last time around, polls showed Tarkanian leading so maybe he can take solace in the fact that he trails in the polls, considering the fact that they missed the mark last time.

10.  Nevada’s 4^th Congressional District: This seat became open after Democrat Ruben Kihuen found himself a casualty of the #MeToo movement.  Kihuen defeated incumbent Republican Crescent Hardy as Hillary Clinton narrowly carried the district in 2016.  The race has shaped up as a rematch between Hardy and Former Congressman Steven Horsford, whom Hardy defeated in 2014.  Most polls show Horsford leading Hardy within the margin of error, however, one poll shows the race tied and an internal poll conducted on behalf of Hardy shows him leading Horsford by four points. If Hardy manages to win in 2018, then this relatively new district, first created after the 2012 Census, will have established itself as a swing district, with no two members of the same party representing it for two consecutive terms.  

 

Missing: Minnesota’s 7^th Congressional District and Pennsylvania’s 8^th Congressional District.  Both of these districts voted overwhelmingly for President Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election.  Mitt Romney carried Minnesota 7 in the 2012 election and President Trump carried it with more than 60 percent of the vote in 2016.  Pennsylvania’s 8^th district, formerly known as Pennsylvania’s 17^th District, voted for President Obama in 2012 yet swung hard to President Trump in 2012.  The longtime incumbent in Minnesota’s 7^th Congressional District, Collin Peterson, could probably earn the title of most conservative Democrat in the House; meaning that he fits his district well.  He only beat his opponent by single digits in the 2016 election, as some of his fellow Democratic incumbents in slightly less Republican districts nearly lost their races. A poll conducted on behalf of Peterson found him beating his Republican challenger by 18 points.  In Pennsylvania, incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright appears to have tailored his voting record to his pro-Trump district, by voting in favor of Kate’s Law and the No Sanctuary for Criminals Act.  that may have paid off as a New York Times poll found Cartwright leading his Republican opponent John Chrin by twelve points. 

If a “red wave” does materialize and Republicans actually manage to do the unthinkable and pick up House seats, then the seats listed here would likely find themselves swept up in the tide. Republicans will probably end up losing at least three seats even if they have a spectacular election night.  Those three seats hold the top three seats on the Top 10 Most Likely Democratic House Pickups, which I will release later this week.