North Carolina: Nancy Pelosi's 2020 Insurance Policy
With less than a year to go until the 2020 election, the Republicans’ path to retaking the House majority will likely require them to pick up at least 20 seats. The Democrats had hoped that the Supreme Court would rule differently in a series of cases surrounding partisan gerrymandering. Had the Supreme Court sided with Eric Holder and all those who have gone on a crusade against “partisan map-rigging” (but only when it’s done by the Republicans), they would have struck down Republican-drawn maps in Michigan and Ohio and completely upended the battle for the House in 2020. The only positive development for the GOP would have come in Maryland, which has the most ridiculous-looking Congressional districts in the country as a result of the Democrats’ vast efforts to ensure that they control seven of the state’s eight seats in the House of Representatives.
In addition to playing offense, Republicans have to play defense in a couple of seats. Defending the Clinton-won Texas’s 23rd Congressional District looks a lot harder now that incumbent Will Hurd has decided to retire. A handful of other races in districts President Trump only narrowly carried could also give Republicans some heartburn due to a mixture of close races in 2018 and/or a retiring incumbent.
The Cook Political Report, The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Inside Elections, and Politico have compiled race ratings for all 435 House seats for the 2020 election. Of the four sites, only Politico has taken into account the new North Carolina districts when making its ratings. Based on the ratings of three of the four sites, Democrats look like favorites to hold onto the House; as the number of Republican-favored seats and toss-ups adds up to less than 218. Once again, Politico finds itself the odd man out; as the sum of the Republican-favored seats and toss-ups adds up to 222. Republicans could retake the House simply by sweeping every seat Politico categorized as a toss-up but that task might fall into the “easier said than done” category.
Assuming that Republicans pick up the seat in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, currently held by Republican-turned-independent Justin Amash, Republicans will need to win 21 of the following seats if they want to retake control of the lower chamber. I define top tier challengers as candidates with a Wikipedia page and/or candidates who have earned a spot on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s list of “On the Radar” candidates. I have divided the seats into tiers, with seats rated as toss-ups by all four sites in the top tier, seats rated as toss-ups by all sites except Inside Elections in the second tier, seats rated as toss-ups by three of the four sites in the third tier, districts categorized as toss-ups by two of the four sites in the fourth tier, and the districts that only Politico labels as toss-ups make up the fifth tier.
Winning all of the seats in the top four tiers alone will not enable Republicans to retake control of the House. With the exception of the open seat in Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District, Politico rates all of the seats in the top four tiers as toss-ups. If Republicans want to win back control of the lower chamber, they will most likely have to rely on the seats that only Politico considers toss-ups at the moment.
Of the Politico toss-ups, Virginia’s 7th Congressional District seems like the most logical pick-up opportunity for Republicans. Strong Republican recruits likely prompted Politico to put California’s 21st and 48th Districts in the “toss-up” category. Of the two districts, California’s 48th Congressional District seems most likely to vote for President Trump; as Hillary Clinton only carried it with a narrow plurality. Still, California’s 21st Congressional District might have a better shot at flipping back to Republicans despite its strong Democratic tilt in Presidential elections because former Congressman David Valadao, who only narrowly lost re-election in 2018 by less than a percentage point, has decided to run for his old seat. One poll shows Valadao beating incumbent TJ Cox; although the polls showed Valadao beating Cox by a wide margin in 2018 and he still lost.
Strong recruits and close presidential margins likely influenced Politico’s decision to rate New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, Texas’s 7th Congressional District, and Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District as toss-ups. If President Trump ends up winning Nevada, he will probably win Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District. A poll showing Republican Wesley Hunt narrowly beating incumbent Democrat Lizzie Fletcher in Texas’s 7th Congressional District gives Republicans reason for optimism in a district where the incumbent Republican lost by five points last year. Politico also classified California’s 25th Congressional District as a “toss-up” but before the general election, a special election will have to take place. If a Democrat wins the special election, Politico will likely take the district off its list of toss-ups; as the Democrat will become the favorite to win in a seat that Hillary Clinton carried with slightly over 50 percent of the vote. Hillary won by an even bigger margin in California’s 39th Congressional District but Republicans like their recruit, Young Kim, who narrowly lost to Democrat Gil Cisneros last year. A poll shows Kim beating Cisneros but once again, polls don’t mean everything. It looks like Republicans will have the hardest time winning these five seats.
In the end, the redistricting in North Carolina less than a year before the decennial census ma have a minimal effect on the outcome of the 2020 election if Republicans either come up way short in their drive to reach 218 or if they exceed expectations because nearly every single Democrat from a swing district losing re-election due to their support for the impeachment inquiry. Still, Democrats seem to have banked their hopes on a close margin; seeing the new North Carolina map as an insurance policy to keep Nancy Pelosi in power after the 2020 election.
While liberals struck out at the Supreme Court this year, they have successfully gotten judges at the state and federal level to strike down Republican-drawn maps in Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania throughout the past two election cycle; with new maps going into effect in those states ahead of the 2016 election. Despite the fact that the Republicans ended up with a net loss of two seats in the three states, the GOP still held on to the House majority.
In 2018, the redistricting in Pennsylvania had far more disastrous consequences for the GOP than the other three combined. Under the old map, Hillary Clinton won six of the state’s 18 districts while President Trump won 12. Republicans represented two of the six districts carried by Hillary Clinton while a Democrat represented one of the districts carried by President Trump; giving Republicans a 13-5 edge in Pennsylvania’s Congressional delegation. Under the court-imposed map, the number of Clinton-won districts increased from six to eight while the number of Trump-won districts decreased from 12 to ten. Democrats ultimately picked up four seats in Pennsylvania by flipping two Clinton-won Republican-held seats that became dramatically bluer, one open seat that transformed from a seat the President narrowly carried to one he narrowly lost, and a seat in western Pennsylvania that went from solidly Republican to a toss-up.
Heading into 2020, another round of redistricting will take place in North Carolina after a court struck down the remap that first went into effect in 2016. Liberals’ insistence on challenging a map just two years before the 2020 Census will result in new Congressional maps for every state in the country serves as just the latest example of their inability and/or refusal to let the democratic process play out. The same applies to impeachment; rather than wait until the regularly scheduled 2020 Presidential Election, liberals want to impeach the President now because they just can’t wait.
Both the original map that first went into effect following the 2010 census and the remap that first went into effect ahead of the 2016 election featured ten seats that voted for President Trump in 2016 and three seats that supported Hillary Clinton. The new map, assuming it survives a court challenge, will consist of eight seats that voted for President Trump and five seats that voted for Hillary Clinton. Check out the details below, taken from The Daily Kos.
District
|
Old Clinton %
|
Old Trump %
|
New Clinton %
|
New Trump %
|
NC-1
|
67.5
|
30.5
|
54.7
|
43.6
|
NC-2
|
43.6
|
53.2
|
60.3
|
35.9
|
NC-3
|
36.9
|
60.5
|
36.5
|
61.0
|
NC-4
|
68.2
|
28.2
|
65.2
|
31.9
|
NC-5
|
39.8
|
57.4
|
30.3
|
67.2
|
NC-6
|
41.4
|
56.1
|
59.4
|
37.9
|
NC-7
|
39.9
|
57.6
|
38.7
|
58.6
|
NC-8
|
41.1
|
56.1
|
44.1
|
53.2
|
NC-9
|
42.8
|
54.4
|
43.3
|
53.7
|
NC-10
|
36.4
|
61.0
|
29.6
|
67.8
|
NC-11
|
34.0
|
63.2
|
39.9
|
57.2
|
NC-12
|
68.4
|
28.4
|
67.3
|
29.5
|
NC-13
|
44.0
|
53.4
|
30.6
|
67.0
|
In 2016 and 2018, the race for control of the House of Representatives did not come down to a single seat or a handful of seats. That could change in 2020. Since Republicans currently control 197 seats, they need to achieve a net gain of 21 seats in order to reach the magic number of 218. Their current share of seats in the House reflects the fact that two Republican-held seats have become vacant in recent months following the resignations of Congressmen Sean Duffy and Chris Collins. Republicans can exceed that goal simply by sweeping the 31 seats currently held by Democrats that President Trump won in 2016. However, some of the incumbents in Trump-won districts still start out as overwhelming favorites and the close margin in some of those districts in 2016 raises the question as to whether or not they will support the President again in 2020.
In addition to playing offense, Republicans have to play defense in a couple of seats. Defending the Clinton-won Texas’s 23rd Congressional District looks a lot harder now that incumbent Will Hurd has decided to retire. A handful of other races in districts President Trump only narrowly carried could also give Republicans some heartburn due to a mixture of close races in 2018 and/or a retiring incumbent.
While winning the special elections will bring Republicans’ number of seats back up to 199; the number of Republican-held seats will likely start at 197 in the 117th Congress because the redistricting in North Carolina has turned two formerly Republican-leaning seats into safe Democratic seats. Taking into account the fact that Democrats seem to have the advantage in Texas’s 23rd Congressional District, Republicans should plan on using the number 196 as the base to build on.
The Cook Political Report, The University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, Inside Elections, and Politico have compiled race ratings for all 435 House seats for the 2020 election. Of the four sites, only Politico has taken into account the new North Carolina districts when making its ratings. Based on the ratings of three of the four sites, Democrats look like favorites to hold onto the House; as the number of Republican-favored seats and toss-ups adds up to less than 218. Once again, Politico finds itself the odd man out; as the sum of the Republican-favored seats and toss-ups adds up to 222. Republicans could retake the House simply by sweeping every seat Politico categorized as a toss-up but that task might fall into the “easier said than done” category.
Politico currently rates North Carolina’s 2nd Congressional District and North Carolina’s 6th Congressional District as “Safe Democratic” and Texas’s 23rd Congressional District as “Leans Democratic.” The website also lists six additional Republican-held seats as toss-ups but I still give Republicans the benefit of the doubt in those districts for the purposes of this exercise. If Republicans end up losing most or all of those seats, they will probably come up short in their bid to retake the House majority.
Assuming that Republicans pick up the seat in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District, currently held by Republican-turned-independent Justin Amash, Republicans will need to win 21 of the following seats if they want to retake control of the lower chamber. I define top tier challengers as candidates with a Wikipedia page and/or candidates who have earned a spot on the National Republican Congressional Committee’s list of “On the Radar” candidates. I have divided the seats into tiers, with seats rated as toss-ups by all four sites in the top tier, seats rated as toss-ups by all sites except Inside Elections in the second tier, seats rated as toss-ups by three of the four sites in the third tier, districts categorized as toss-ups by two of the four sites in the fourth tier, and the districts that only Politico labels as toss-ups make up the fifth tier.
Seat
|
Dem. Margin, 2018
|
Top Tier Challengers
|
|
Tier 1 (5 seats)
|
|||
OK-5
|
+13.4
|
+1.4
|
Yes
|
SC-1
|
+13.1
|
+1.4
|
Yes
|
NY-22
|
+15.5
|
+1.8
|
Yes
|
NY-11
|
+9.8
|
+6.4
|
Yes
|
UT-4
|
+6.7
|
+0.2
|
Yes
|
Tier 2 (6 seats)
|
|||
ME-2
|
+10.3
|
+1.0
|
Yes
|
NM-2
|
+10.2
|
+1.8
|
Yes
|
MN-7
|
+30.8
|
+4.2
|
Yes
|
NJ-3
|
+6.2
|
+1.3
|
No
|
NY-19
|
+6.8
|
+5.2
|
No
|
IA-1
|
+3.5
|
+5.1
|
Yes
|
Tier 3 (3 seats)
|
|||
IA-2
|
+4.1
|
+12.2
|
Yes
|
IA-3
|
+3.5
|
+2.1
|
Yes
|
IL-14
|
+3.9
|
+5.0
|
Yes
|
Tier 4 (4 seats)
|
|||
NJ-2
|
+4.6
|
+7.7
|
Yes
|
GA-6
|
+1.5
|
+1.0
|
Yes
|
VA-2
|
+3.4
|
+2.2
|
No
|
MI-8
|
+6.7
|
+3.8
|
No
|
Tier 5 (8 seats)
|
|||
VA-7
|
+6.5
|
+2.0
|
Yes
|
CA-21
|
-15.5
|
+0.8
|
Yes
|
CA-48
|
-1.7
|
+7.2
|
Yes
|
NJ-7
|
-1.1
|
+5.0
|
Yes
|
NV-3
|
+1.0
|
+9.1
|
Yes
|
TX-7
|
-1.4
|
+5.0
|
Yes
|
CA-25
|
-6.7
|
+8.8
|
Yes
|
CA-39
|
-8.6
|
+3.2
|
Yes
|
Of the Politico toss-ups, Virginia’s 7th Congressional District seems like the most logical pick-up opportunity for Republicans. Strong Republican recruits likely prompted Politico to put California’s 21st and 48th Districts in the “toss-up” category. Of the two districts, California’s 48th Congressional District seems most likely to vote for President Trump; as Hillary Clinton only carried it with a narrow plurality. Still, California’s 21st Congressional District might have a better shot at flipping back to Republicans despite its strong Democratic tilt in Presidential elections because former Congressman David Valadao, who only narrowly lost re-election in 2018 by less than a percentage point, has decided to run for his old seat. One poll shows Valadao beating incumbent TJ Cox; although the polls showed Valadao beating Cox by a wide margin in 2018 and he still lost.
Strong recruits and close presidential margins likely influenced Politico’s decision to rate New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, Texas’s 7th Congressional District, and Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District as toss-ups. If President Trump ends up winning Nevada, he will probably win Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District. A poll showing Republican Wesley Hunt narrowly beating incumbent Democrat Lizzie Fletcher in Texas’s 7th Congressional District gives Republicans reason for optimism in a district where the incumbent Republican lost by five points last year. Politico also classified California’s 25th Congressional District as a “toss-up” but before the general election, a special election will have to take place. If a Democrat wins the special election, Politico will likely take the district off its list of toss-ups; as the Democrat will become the favorite to win in a seat that Hillary Clinton carried with slightly over 50 percent of the vote. Hillary won by an even bigger margin in California’s 39th Congressional District but Republicans like their recruit, Young Kim, who narrowly lost to Democrat Gil Cisneros last year. A poll shows Kim beating Cisneros but once again, polls don’t mean everything. It looks like Republicans will have the hardest time winning these five seats.
In the end, the redistricting in North Carolina less than a year before the decennial census ma have a minimal effect on the outcome of the 2020 election if Republicans either come up way short in their drive to reach 218 or if they exceed expectations because nearly every single Democrat from a swing district losing re-election due to their support for the impeachment inquiry. Still, Democrats seem to have banked their hopes on a close margin; seeing the new North Carolina map as an insurance policy to keep Nancy Pelosi in power after the 2020 election.
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