A Series of Unfortunate Events: 2018 Edition

Following Roy Moore’s loss in the Alabama Senate race last year, I wrote an article called “A Series of Unfortunate Events.” I hoped that I did not have to write another one like that this year. However, the fact that the Democrats have taken control of the House of Representatives has left me no choice.

As of right now, it looks like Democrats will have netted between 30 and 35 seats.  Fortunately, this puts Republicans in a decent position to retake the House in 2020.  After Democrats lost the House in 2010, they would have needed two dozen seats to retake control of the House in 2012.  That obviously did not pan out.

Republicans probably could have held onto the majority if not for a series of unfortunate events.  In parentheses after each unfortunate event, I have included the number of seats Republicans would hold if not for that unfortunate event.  Let’s take a look at those events:

 

1.      Fifty years of low-skilled immigration: A study from the Center for Immigration Studies takes a look at the 25 most populous counties and how immigration has impacted the Republican share of the vote in Presidential elections from 1980 to 2008. In Harris County, Texas, the immigrant share of the population tripled from 8 percent in 1980 to 24 percent in 2008.  At the same time, the Republican share of the vote in Harris County shrunk from 57 percent in 1980 to 49 percent in 2008.  Republicans lost Texas’s 7^th Congressional District, located entirely within Harris County.  President Trump lost the 7^th District, now a majority-minority district, in 2016.  Coincidence?  Don’t bet on it. In Dallas County, Texas, the immigrant share of the population rose from around 5 percent in 1980 to more than 25 percent in 2008.  The Republican share of the Presidential vote in Dallas County dropped from 59 percent in 1980 to 42 percent in 2008.  Republican lost Texas’s 32^nd Congressional District, located mostly in Dallas County.  It looks like Republicans have also lost California’s 25^th Congressional District, located partially within Los Angeles County. California’s 25^th Congressional District went for Hillary Clinton in 2012 and has a nonwhite majority.  I could probably keep going but I’ll stop here.  Keep in mind that immigration probably caused some House seats to flip to the Democrats long before the 2018 election.  (+3)

2.      Florida redistricting: Going into the 2016 election, Republicans held all but ten seats in Florida’s Congressional delegation.  Following the 2014 election, the Democrats controlled a Republican-leaning district containing Tallahassee, a district stretching from Jacksonville to Orlando, a district containing Tampa, a five districts in South Florida.  The Florida Supreme Court ordered a new Congressional map.  The new map radically changed a handful of districts.  Florida’s 2^nd Congressional district, which formerly contained Tallahassee, moved further south; making it a solid Republican pickup.  Florida’s 5^th Congressional district, which formerly stretched from Jacksonville to Orlando, now stretches from Jacksonville to Tallahassee.  Redistricting made Florida’s 10^th Congressional District, formerly a solid Republican district, much more Democratic; effectively cancelling out a likely Republican victory in the 2^nd district. At the same time, Florida’s 13^th Congressional District, in the St. Petersburg area, and Florida’s 7^th Congressional District, in the Orlando area, also became more Democratic.  As a result, Democrats picked up both seats in the 2016 election.  Democrats probably would have picked up Florida’s 13^th Congressional District without the redistricting but Republicans likely would have held on in the 7^th District.  On Election Day 2016, Republicans also picked up Florida’s 18^th Congressional District, which became vacant when its Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy unsuccessfully challenged Senator Marco Rubio. Republicans held the 18^th District after the 2010 election. In 2018, Republicans lost two more seats in South Florida, which Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly carried in the 2016 Presidential Election.  They probably would have lost those seats even without the redistricting but Republicans probably, meaning that without this unfortunate event, Republicans would have one more seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.  (+1)

3.      Virginia redistricting: Heading into the 2016 election, Republicans held eight of Virginia’s eleven seats in the House of Representatives.  The Democrats held only two seats in the DC area and one seat containing Richmond and Newport News.  That changed when the Virginia Supreme Court ordered a new map.  Under the old map, Virginia’s 4^th Congressional District contained southern Virginia, the part of the state that Peter Strzok likely described when texting his mistress that he could “smell the Trump support” at a Wal-Mart in the area. Under the new map, the 4^th District still contained the southern part of Virginia but it also contained Richmond, which made it virtually impossible for Republicans to hold onto.  The Democrats picked up Virginia’s 4^th Congressional District in 2016.  The new map also altered Virginia’s 7^th Congressional District, making it more Democratic; although President Trump still carried it with 50.6 percent.  The new Virginia map may have made all the difference in 2018, when Republican Congressman Dave Brat lost to Democrat Abigail Spanberger.  Republican Scott Taylor of Virginia’s 2^nd Congressional District and Barbara Comstock of Virginia’s 10^th Congressional District probably would have lost even without the redistricting.  President Trump only narrowly carried the 2^nd district while he lost the 10^th district by a fairly wide margin.  (+2)  

4.      Pennsylvania redistricting: No issue may have played a bigger role in the Democrats’ pickup of the House of Representatives than the court-ordered redistricting that took place in Pennsylvania earlier this year. When challenging the Congressional maps of Florida and Virginia, plaintiffs argued that Republican state legislatures unconstitutionally took race into account when drawing the districts.  In Pennsylvania, they made an argument that partisan gerrymandering, not racial gerrymandering, resulted in a lopsided map in favor of Republicans.  Heading into the 2018 election, Republicans held thirteen of the state’s eighteen seats in Congress.  The Democrats held three seats in the Philadelphia area, one seat in Pittsburgh, and one seat containing Scranton that overwhelmingly swung to President Trump in 2016.  The Republicans’ lead in the Congressional delegation shrunk when now-Congressman Conor Lamb defeated the Republican nominee Rick Saccone in a special election in Pennsylvania’s 18^th Congressional District, in the western part of the state. But by then, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court had approved a new map of Congressional districts.  The old map contained twelve districts carried by President Trump and six districts carried by Hillary Clinton. Clinton narrowly carried two districts in the heavily populated Philadelphia area represented by Republicans while President Trump carried the historically Democratic stronghold of Scranton, still represented by a Democrat in Congress, by double digits.  Under the new map, the number of Clinton-won districts rose from six to eight.  The Supreme Court also managed to renumber the districts, unlike the other Courts, which mostly kept the numbers of the districts the same.  Pennsylvania’s 6^th and 7^th Congressional Districts, which Hillary Clinton narrowly won, became overwhelmingly more Democratic under the redistricting.  In addition, Pennsylvania’s 8^th and 15^th Congressional Districts went from districts narrowly carried by President Trump to districts narrowly carried by Hillary Clinton. The representative for Pennsylvania’s former 7^th Congressional district, Pat Meehan, had already decided to call it quits thanks to  In the western part of the state, the Democrats would have had no shot at picking up Pennsylvania’s 12^th Congressional District.  However, the new map drew in the newly drawn Pennsylvania’s 17^th Congressional District, which overlaps to some degree with the former 12^th District. Under the new map, President Trump only carried the 17^th District by a very small margin.  Not surprisingly, the Democrats’ calculus for the new map paid off.  Republicans ended up losing the new versions of the 6^th, 7^th, 12^th and 15^th Districts on Election Night.  Considering the fact that Meehan announced his retirement before the implementation, Republicans probably would have lost that Clinton-won district even without redistricting.  Republicans probably could have held on in the other three; they would have most definitely held onto the 12^th District.   (+3)

5.      A rash of House Republican retirements: Republicans probably could have held onto some more seats if only their incumbents decided not to retire. Ironically, some of the Republicans who decided to retire in fear of a blue wave may have unintentionally caused the blue wave, or at least a blue ripple.  For examples of districts Republicans probably could have held onto, look no further than New Jersey. In 2016, President Trump carried New Jersey’s 2^nd Congressional District, which Republicans basically wrote off when its incumbent Congressman, Frank LoBiondo, announced his retirement and State Senator Jeff Van Drew announced his candidacy.  While polls showed Van Drew trouncing Republican Seth Grossman, Grossman ended up coming within striking distance. The same scenario would have likely played out in New Jersey’s 11^th Congressional District, whose longtime Republican incumbent, Rodney Frelinghuysen, also decided to retire. While Republican Congresswoman Ileana Ros-Lehtinen’s retirement may have played a role in the Democratic victory there; the fact that fellow South Florida Republican Carlos Curbelo lost his seat makes it look like Ros-Lehtinen may have gone down as well. Republicans also retired in competitive districts in Arizona, California, Michigan, Washington, although Republicans probably would have lost some or all of those seats even with the incumbents on the ballot. (+2)

6.      The appointment of Tom Price as HHS Secretary: Congressman Tom Price of Georgia’s 6^th Congressional District won re-election with more than 60 percent of the vote in 2016 as President Trump only carried his district with a plurality of the vote.  President Trump decided to appoint Price the Secretary of Health and Human Services, triggering a special election that cost millions of dollars.  Despite Hollywood’s best efforts, Republican Karen Handel won the special election.  Not long after the special election, Price resigned after his use of taxpayer money to fly on private jets came to light.  The fact that “repeal and replace” failed to come to fruition may have also played a role in his departure.   With the race too close to call, Democrat Lucy McBath narrowly leads Handel but had President Trump picked someone else for his HHS Secretary, Price would have cruised to re-election within fifteen minutes of the polls closing. (+1)

 

So, a series of unfortunate events has cost Republicans at least ten seats and therefore, the majority in the United States House of Representatives.  Republicans should keep this in mind when thinking about giving amnesty to illegal immigrants and retiring.  In the meantime, Republicans should begin crafting a strategy to retake the House of Representatives in 2020.