Corruption: How Republicans Could Snatch Defeat From the Jaws of Victory

The mainstream media had a pretty good week this week.  At least they think they did.  They have worked very hard to convince the American people that another impeachment, with the two left-wing cable networks using the “I” word 222 times following of the conviction of former Trump Campaign Manager Paul Manafort as well as the announcement that President Trump’s Former Personal Attorney Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to a series of tax fraud and campaign finance violations.  For the record, neither of Manafort’s crimes or Cohen’s alleged crimes have anything to do with Russian interference in the 2016 Presidential Election; the original purpose of the Special Counsel investigation.    

In addition, the media reacted with glee to the news that Congressman Duncan Hunter, the second member of Congress to endorse President Trump in the 2016 Republican Presidential primaries, faces charges of using his campaign funds to pay for personal expenses.  Hunter represents a district in Southern California carried by President Trump.  Republicans already have to defend seven seats in the People’s Republic of California that Hillary Clinton carried.  In other words, Republicans definitely don’t need this. 

Hunter inherited the seat from his father, former Congressman Duncan Hunter, who ran for President in 2008; receiving the endorsements of conservative icons Ann Coulter and Phyllis Schlafly.  Considering the fact that the junior Hunter comes from a political pedigree, he should know the laws. 

The indictment against Hunter comes two and a half months after the top-two primary and two and a half months before the general election.  The investigation into Hunter first began last year.  Because of this, Republican Congressman Darrell Issa, who decided not to run for re-election in California’s 49th District, flirted with the idea of running in Hunter’s district but ultimately chose not to.  He may definitely have buyer’s remorse.  The deadline has passed for the removal of Hunter’s name from the ballot and California does not allow write-ins. Polling conducted before Hunter’s indictment showed him beating his Democratic challenger by a margin of nine points. 

The news about Hunter comes just two weeks after the arrest of Congressman Chris Collins, the first member of Congress to endorse President Trump in 2016, on insider trading. Initially, Representative Collins said that he would run for re-election but he announced his decision to step out of the race after consultation with his family.  New York’s electoral laws only allow a candidate’s removal from the ballot if he or she decides to run for another office.  Therefore, Republicans in Erie County, where Collins resides, have looked into nominating him for a town clerkship.  A long list of candidates vying to replace Collins on the ballot in November has emerged.  The GOP county chairs of the eight counties comprising New York’s 27^th Congressional District will ultimately have the final say.  Collins represents the most Republican district in New York State; Democrats had included it on their list of targets in 2018, but nobody seriously thought they had a chance at flipping it until Collins’ arrest earlier this month.  The 27^th District had a Democratic representative as recently as 2012, one year after now-Lieutenant Governor Kathy Hochul won a special election to replace the Republican incumbent who had to resign because of a sex scandal.  Collins defeated Hochul as she sought a full term in the slightly redistricted 27^th District in 2012.  

Even if Republicans succeed in picking a replacement for Collins, the Democrats, who desperately want to flip the seat, will likely take legal action in an effort to prevent the removal of Collins’ name from the ballot. The GOP county chairs have failed to unify around a candidate with just a little more than two months before the midterms; citing the “domino effect” that would result from Collins’ replacement’s hypothetical withdrawal from races in the event that the Democrats’ legal challenges bear fruit. The “domino effect” would result from candidates who currently hold State Senate or Assembly seats withdrawing from their respective races.  Unfortunately, it seems like local Republicans seem all to willing to give the Speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi (and the chairmanships of the House Finance Committee and the House Intelligence Committee to fellow California radicals Maxine Waters and Adam Schiff, respectively),  just to maintain what little power they have in New York State.  Their power ultimately means nothing thanks to the super liberal New York City area’s stranglehold on state politics (President Trump would have won the hypothetical state of Upstate New York.)
  One of the strongest candidates for the race, Erie County Comptoller Stefan Mychajliw, beats Democratic candidate Nate McMurray by 13 points in a hypothetical match-up.  Erie County Republicans do not want to sacrifice the Comptoller’s seat since Mychajliw’s departure means that the Democratic-controlled Erie County legislature will get to pick his replacement.  In today’s hyper-partisan political climate, don’t expect them to pick another Republican.  Another candidate in the race, the Republican Nominee for Governor of New York in 2010 Carl Paladino, really stepped in it when he said that he hoped President Obama would die of mad cow disease in 2017 after having sex with a cow when asked what he wanted to see happen in the New Year.  He probably should have answered “I hope President Trump makes America great again” instead. Had he not made those comments, he probably would have easily won the support of  considering the fact that he won Erie County in the 2010 gubernatorial election as well as three of the strongly Republican counties in the 27^th District while losing just about everywhere else.  Polling shows Paladino beating McMurray by only two points.   

While both parties have had their fair share of scandal-plauged politicans over the years, Republicans have to work twice as hard to keep their heads above water because the media has a tendency to report on scandals involving Republicans with exponentially more rigor and vigor than scandals involving Democrats.  Tim Groseclose ended up writing a whole book on the topic titled Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind.  Groseclose’s book ultimately concluded that without the influence of liberal media, the American electorate would sympathize a lot more with the Republican Party. 

Mainstream media bias definitely reared its ugly head when it came to the coverage of the scandals involving Hunter and Collins, as opposed to coverage of scandals involving Democratic politicians.  The evening and morning news programs on the three broadcast news networks, also known as the “alphabet soup” networks only spent 68 seconds on scandals involving Democrats Chaka Fattah and Corrine Brown.  Both Fattah and Brown sit in jail after losing their seats to primary challengers in 2016.  On the other hand, the three networks spent more than 18 minutes covering the Collins scandal in the first 24 hours following his arrest while they spent more than 17 minutes covering Hunter’s indictment in the first 60 hours after that story broke.  The 68 seconds the networks devoted to Fattah and Brown’s legal woes span the entire time period from their indictments to their subsequent convictions.          

I recently said during my first appearance on “The Conservative Underground” podcast that if Republicans do lose the House, they can thank the new map in Pennsylvania as well as the large number of Republican incumbents who decided not to run for re-election; thus making it harder for Republicans to hold onto those seats without the advantage of incumbency.  Unfortunately, a third reason may exist in the event of Republicans losing the House.  Corruption scandals have made some seats that Republicans should have had no trouble winning potentially vulnerable.    

In the past, corruption scandals have dogged incumbents who would have had no trouble winning re-election otherwise.  In 2008, Louisiana Congressman Bill Jefferson, whose district included the Democratic stronghold of New Orleans, lost re-election in his safely Democratic seat in a strongly Democratic year.  At the time of his loss, Jefferson  For a little perspective, Hillary carried Louisiana’s 2^nd Congressional District with 74 percent of the vote while President Trump carried New York’s 27^th Congressional District with nearly 60 percent of the vote and Duncan Hunter’s district with just 55 percent of the vote. Louisiana’s 2^nd district returned to form in 2010, ousting his Republican successor Joseph Cao in favor of Democratic Congressman Cedric Richmond; despite the fact that Republicans did very well nationwide that year.

In 2014, Republican Congressman Michael Grimm of Staten Island won re-election despite the fact that he faced charges of mail, wire, and tax fraud. The prosecutor who brought the charges against Grimm, Future Attorney General Loretta Lynch, coincidentally waited until two weeks after the deadline to remove Grimm’s name from the ballot; hoping that the timing of his indictment would cause the derailment of his re-election campaign, allowing his Democratic challenger to claim victory in what looked like a very difficult year for Democrats.  In spite of Lynch’s best attempt to influence the outcome of the election, Grimm ended up winning; only to resign as soon as his term would have begun.  Republican Dan Donovan, who won the special election to replace Grimm, faced off against Grimm, who ended up serving jail time, in the Republican primary earlier this year.  Donovan ended up emerging victorious in the Republican primary.    

With the economy booming, Republicans should not have trouble holding onto the House this fall despite the fact that they do not have history on their side; considering the fact that the party in power almost always tends to lose seats in midterm elections.  However, the large number of retirements, the new map of Congressional districts in Pennsylvania that gave Democrats at least three easy pick-ups, and corruption scandals engulfing Republican Congressmen who represent typically safe districts could allow Republicans to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.  Maybe the talk of impeachment may actually help Republicans turn out their base and thus save their chances of holding onto the House; thus creating a repeat of what happened in 1998 when Democrats actually picked up seats due to the Republicans’ overreach and obsession with impeaching President Clinton.  Just 73 days remain between now and Election Day; the results of which will have an enormous impact on President Trump and his ability to enact this America First agenda into law.  Stay home at your own peril.