The Final Countdown

I have spent my past several blog posts focusing on the state of the House races.  What about the Senate and gubernatorial races? Let’s take a look.

In terms of the Senate, Republicans reached a high point on the Real Clear Politics Senate map with no toss-ups about two weeks ago.  At that time, the Real Clear Politics averages found Republicans holding both of their seats in Nevada and Arizona while picking up North Dakota, Missouri, and Florida.  A few days later, Florida switched back to the Democrats; while Republican Mike Braun took the lead in the Real Clear Politics Average in the Indiana Senate race. 

With hours between now and the first polls opening, the Real Clear Politics “no toss-up” map predicts that Republicans will see no net change in the number of Senate seats they hold; with wins in Missouri and North Dakota canceled out by Democratic pickups in Arizona and Nevada.  Based on their latest predictions, it looks like the “Kavanaugh Effect” has worn off.

Real Clear Politics also gives average Joes the opportunity to create their own Senate map.  Well, take a look at mine, which I created late last week when the “no toss-up” map looked slightly more favorable for Republicans:

If only I could figure out how to make lines go through Missouri, Nevada, and Arizona to indicate party switches.  The lines going through North Dakota came with the base of the map which had all of the dark blue, medium blue, dark red, and medium red seats filled in.  As you can see, my map predicts no net gain in the Senate; making it in perfect agreement with the Real Clear Politics no toss-up map.

As I explained during my most recent appearance on “The Conservative Underground” podcast, I feel the least optimistic about Republicans’ chances when it comes to the governors’ races.  In almost all of the states with both Senate and gubernatorial elections this year, the Republican gubernatorial candidate has consistently outperformed the Republican Senate candidate in the polls.  Many of the tightest gubernatorial contests in red states would definitely benefit from having a GOP Senator up for re-election.  Georgia and Kansas specifically come to mind. Take a look at my gubernatorial map:

 

 

Once again, quite a few of those states should have lines going through them to indicate party switches; in this case Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, and Wisconsin.  My map predicts seven gubernatorial pickups for the Democrats; exceeding the number of seats they picked up in 2006, an awful year for Republicans.  For some reason, the map says that I predict a pickup of eight governorships.  Currently, Republicans hold 33 governorships, the Democrats hold sixteen, while Alaska has an independent Governor who dropped out of running for re-election.  With my predicted Democratic pickups in Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, New Mexico, and Wisconsin and a Republican pickup in Alaska, that would equal a net pickup of seven seats, not eight.  My map predicts the same net gain for the Real Clear Politics “no toss-up” map for the governors’ races but their map predicts a Democratic pickup in Ohio and a Republican hold in Kansas, while mine predicts a Republican hold in Ohio and a Democratic pickup in Kansas. 

I feel the least confident about Georgia and Kansas.  In the case of Georgia, the candidate who receives the most votes on Election night may not reach the 50 percent threshold, thanks to the presence of a Libertarian on the ballot. Georgia law requires a runoff if no candidate receives a majority of the vote on Election Day.  The runoff will take place four weeks later. In the event of a runoff, expect President Trump to take a field trip to Georgia to campaign for Republican Brian Kemp.   

Extensive losses of this caliber in gubernatorial races could end up hurting Republicans as most of the governors elected this year will play a role in the next round of redistricting.  New congressional maps based on the results of the 2020 Census will go into effect beginning with the 2022 elections.  Even if they have Republican legislatures, red state Democratic governors will still have the power to veto any maps put forth by their legislatures, assuming the legislatures don’t have veto-proof supermajorities. Conversely, blue State Republican governors in Maryland and Massachusetts who look like shoo-ins for re-election this year, could veto a ridiculously gerrymandered Congressional map put forth by Democratic legislatures if Republicans manage to pick up just a few more state legislative seats in each state.  Currently, Democrats hold veto-proof supermajorities in both states.  Republicans may have the power to make up for some gubernatorial losses in 2020 by picking up Montana and North Carolina.

Based on the “no toss-up” map created by Real Clear Politics as well as my own gubernatorial map, it looks like nearly every Presidential swing state will have a Democratic governor.  The Democrats will certainly cite this as an advantage in 2020, as the Governors of the individual states can serve as valuable surrogates for whoever ends  up capturing the Democratic nomination for President.  However, keep in mind what happened in 2010.  The states of Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin elected Republican governors.  Republicans ended up losing all seven of those states in the 2012 Presidential Election.  While the phrase “all politics is local” looks like it applies less and less at the national level, it still very much applies at the state level.  Very blue states such as Maryland, Massachusetts, and Vermont have Republican governors while very red states such as Louisiana, Montana, and West Virginia elected Democratic governors in their most recent gubernatorial elections.  However, West Virginia Governor Jim Justice, elected as a Democrat in 2016, ended up switching parties; announcing his decision at a Trump rally in the state last year.

 

 

Unfortunately, Real Clear Politics does not have an option to “create your own House map.”  But the website 270 to win does. Check out my final House map:

While I laid out a very optimistic vision for the House last week, this map probably fits more in line with reality.  For the record, I hope my “yellow brick road” actually becomes reality.  Republicans can keep the House simply by improve slightly on the races I included in my list of the top 10 closest Congressional races, which by the way I would like to update right now:

1.      Virginia 7

2.     Montana at-large

3.      Illinois 6

4.      Kansas 2

5.      New Jersey 3

6.      Florida 27

7.      California 39

8.      Illinois 14

9.      New York 19

10.  West Virginia 3

Additions: Illinois 14, Kansas 2

Removals: California 48, Texas 32

 

 

 

 

Earlier this year, I created a rubric highlighting the best and worse case scenarios for Republicans on Election Day. Based on my final predictions, it looks like Republicans will end up with a B- at the very highest (if they manage to hold the House) because they will still likely end up hemorraghing lots of governorships. If they lose the House without adding one or more Senate seats, they will probably get a C-.  It looks like an “A,” where Republicans would pick up House seats, significantly expand their Senate majority, and avoid hemorraghing lots of governorships; remains out of reach as does an “F,” where a “blue wave” would cause catastrophic losses in the House and a Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. I will give Republicans a final grade based on their Election Day performance after the midterms.

 

Now that I have shared my predictions, I would like to share some Election Day tips:

-Ignore exit polls: I shared this during my most recent appearance on the “Conservative Underground” podcast.  In 2004, exit polls conducted on Election Day and released shortly before the polls closed showed President George W. Bush tied with John Kerry in Mississippi. President Bush ended up crushing Kerry in Mississippi, at the same time a Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage passed with 86 percent of the vote.  I did not mention this in my appearance on “Conservative Underground” but exit polls in 2004 showed President Bush losing to Kerry by 20 points in Pennsylvania.  In actuality, Bush only lost the state by about 2.5 percentage points.  In 2016, exit polls looked very bad for President Trump.  Nonetheless, he ended up winning.  Exit polls have a time and a place.  They make for very interesting reading after the election.

-Don’t expect to know the final results for every race tomorrow night.  As indicated above, the Georgia gubernatorial race could very well head into overtime if none of the candidates receive 50 percent of the vote.  In Mississippi, a special Senate election will take place concurrently with the regularly scheduled Senate election.  The special election will take the form of a jungle primary, where all candidates will run together on the same ballot regardless of party.  It seems unlikely that any candidate will reach the 50 percent threshold to avoid a runoff.  Appointed Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith has a Republican challenger, Chris McDaniel, who unsuccessfully challenged her predecessor Thad Cochran in the Republican primary four years ago.  Because of this, Democrat Mike Espy may end up receiving the highest number of votes on the first ballot.  The runoff between the top two candidates will take place three weeks later.  In other words, the final margin for the Senate will likely remain a mystery until after Thanksgiving. While Republicans should have absolutely nothing to worry about in Mississippi, every single poll of a hypothetical runoff between Espy and McDaniel shows Espy beating McDaniel while all but one poll shows Hyde-Smith beating Espy.  No matter which Republican ends up advancing to the runoff, President Trump will likely make at least one trip to Mississippi on his or her behalf; especially if the Republican majority depends on who wins this particular seat.    

While the results of a handful of races may remain too close to call, in less than 48 hours, Americans should have an idea of whether or not they will have to endure at least another two years of Speaker Nancy Pelosi or if they will get to enjoy the benefits of a Republican majority in the House of Representatives, which include not having to put up with endless investigations into matters that absolutely no one outside of the media or the Democratic Party cares about, an increased probability of real progress on the border wall, and economic policies that result in higher economic growth, lower unemployment, and lower taxes.  The Final Countdown to Election Day 2018 has begun.