Myth Busted: Republicans as the Party of the Rich

If only I had a dollar for every time I’ve heard the phrase “Republicans are the Party of the Rich.” Based on the results of the 2018 elections, that phrase really does not hold up under intense scrutiny. In the weeks following the election, J.D. Vance appeared on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” and claimed that following the 2018 election, 73 of the 100 wealthiest Congressional districts will have Democratic Representatives in Congress; in contrast to just 55 before the 2018 election.  I decided to investigate his claim further using the Census Bureau website, which contains demographic information for each Congressional district based on the 2017 American Community Survey; basically an informal version of the census.

After collecting the data, I found that Democrats will represent an overwhelming majority of the 100 richest Congressional districts in Congress in the 116^th Congress; a slightly higher number than Vance claimed.  Although the segment aired on the day after Thanksgiving, it looks like the segment was taped about a week after Election Day, when the results of races in a handful of the wealthiest Congressional districts remained up in the air, especially in California. That may explain the disparities between the number that Vance came up with (73) versus the number that I came up with (79).  The American Community Survey only has one flaw: the data does not reflect the court-ordered redistricting in Pennsylvania; meaning that all of the data for all of the districts in Pennsylvania applies to the districts originally drawn in 2012 and struck down by the Democratic-dominated Pennsylvania Supreme Court, not the new districts.  

Check out the results in Table 1, which lists the 100 wealthiest Congressional districts from highest median income to lowest median income. Blue districts voted for a Democratic candidate for Congress in the 2018 election while red districts voted for a Republican candidate. Bolded districts signify Democratic pickups in the 2018 elections. Underlined blue districts voted for President Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election despite the fact that they do not or will not have a Republican representative in Congress.

Table 1: Midterm Election Results in 100 Wealthiest Congressional Districts

CA-18	$134.08k	01
CA-17	$124.13k	02
VA-10	$122.09k	03
CA-15	$116.71k	04
NJ-7	$113.99k	05
NJ-11	$112.35k	06
CA-12	$111.72k	07
CA-14	$110.51k	08
NY-3	$107.4k	09
NY-12	$107.01k	10
VA-11	$106.53k	11
CA-33	$105.2k	12
VA-8	$104.15k	13
NY-4	$102.21k	14
CA-45	$102.04k	15
CA-19	$101.43k	16
MD-8	$100.95k	17
MA-4	$100.74k	18
NJ-5	$100.61k	19
IL-6	$98.89k	20
MA-5	$98.78k	21
NY-2	$97.39k	22
MD-5	$96.33k	23
NY-17	$96.13k	24
CA-52	$95.77k	25
TX-3	$95.24k	26
WA-1	$94.64k	27
CT-4	$94.55k	28
TX-22	$94.05k	29
NY-10	$93.63k	30
IL-14	$92.46k	31
GA-6	$92.32k	32
NY-1	$92.28k	33
TX-26	$91.65k	34
PA-7 (old)	$90.55k	35
MA-8	$90.32k	36
CA-11	$90.16k	37
CA-48	$89.81k	38
MN-3	$89.44k	39
CA-39	$89.3k	40
CA-49	$88.31k	41
VA-1	$88.05k	42
MD-3	$87.73k	43
WA-7	$86.45k	44
NJ-4	$86.37k	45
NY-18	$86.21k	46
MA-6	$85.95k	47
NJ-12	$85.6k	48
PA-8 (old)	$84.7k	49
CA-42	$83.84k	50
WA-8	$83.5k	51
MI-11	$82.55k	52
NJ-6	$82.45k	53
NJ-3	$82.3k	54
PA-6 (old)	$82.2k	55
IL-5	$82.21k	56
CA-26	$82.03k	57
MN-2	$81.89k	58
CA-30	$81.28k	59
MD-4	$81.15k	60
CO-6	$80.61k	61
WA-9	$80.28k	62
IL-10	$80.23k	63
HI-1	$80.08k	64
CO-2	$80.02k	65
MN-6	$79.83k	66
MO-2	$79.5k	67
MD-6	$79.25k	68
CA-5	$78.15k	69
CA-27	$77.63k	70
VA-7	$77.53k	71
TX-2	$77.52k	72
CA-50	$77.16k	73
CA-13	$76.92k	74
CA-25	$76.87k	75
CA-2	$76.11k	76
CA-4	$75.84k	77
MA-3	$75.65k	78
OR-1	$75.59k	79
TX-10	$75.52k	80
IL-11	$75.45k	81
HI-2	$75.29k	82
GA-7	$74.87k	83
CA-7	$74.61k	84
TX-24	$74.13k	85
KS-3	$74.12k	86
CT-2	$73.81k	87
CO-4	$73.74k	88
NH-1	$73.49k	89
AZ-6	$73.43k	90
NH-2	$73.25k	91
MD-1	$73.21k	92
AK-AL	$73.18k	93
TX-7	$73.13k	94
CA-20	$73.08k	95
CT-5	$72k	96
UT-4	$72.94k	97
NY-11	$72.63k	98
CA-53	$72.48k	99
CA-38	$72.46k	100

Even the districts colored in red did not, as a rule, vote for President Trump by that much in the 2016 Presidential Election.  Only two of the districts listed above gave him more than 60 percent of the vote.  The Democrats will have a very hard circling the square between their constant portrayal of the Republicans as “the party of the rich” and the reality that the GOP only carried slightly more than 20 percent of the wealthiest Congressional districts in the country.   

As for the 100 least affluent Congressional districts in the country, it looks like a 50/50 split.  Beginning in the 116^th Congress, exactly one-half of the 100 least affluent Congressional districts will have a Republican representative while the other half will have a Democratic representative.  Check out Table 2, which contains the results of the midterms in the 100 least affluent Congressional districts, ranked from lowest median income to highest median income and highlighted based on which party their representative in the 116^th Congress belongs to. Once again, bolded districts have Republican representatives right now but they will have Democratic representatives when the nightmare of Speaker Nancy Pelosi becomes a reality after the New Year. In this case, underlined blue districts either voted for President Trump in 2016 or only narrowly opposed him; making them ripe targets for the 2020 election.  

Table 2: Midterm Election Results in the 100 Least Affluent Congressional Districts

District	Median Income	Rank
NY-15	$28.04k	435
KY-5	$31.73k	434
MI-13	$35.37k	433
SC-6	$35.62k	432
MS-2	$35.84k	431
OH-11	$35.95k	430
AL-7	$35.99k	429
WV-3	$36k	428
LA-4	$37.1k	427
LA-2	$37.34k	426
LA-5	$37.42k	425
GA-2	$37.57k	424
TX-34	$37.98k	423
PA-2 (old)	$39.13k	422
OK-2	$40.31k	421
TN-9	$40.49k	420
MO-8	$40.54k	419
AR-4	$40.91k	418
FL-5	$40.92k	417
AR-1	$41.14k	416
FL-24	$41.17k	415
NV-1	$41.28k	414
KY-1	$41.93k	413
WI-4	$42.09k	412
SC-7	$42.16k	411
TX-33	$42.23k	410
TN-1	$42.3k	409
TX-15	$42.47k	408
NM-2	$42.51k	407
CA-21	$42.62k	406
IN-7	$42.63k	405
TX-29	$42.79k	404
GA-12	$43.18k	403
OH-9	$43.18k	402
AL-4	$43.22k	401
CA-16	$43.84k	400
NC-1	$43.85k	399
NY-13	$43.88k	398
AZ-7	$43.97k	397
VA-9	$43.99k	396
MI-5	$44.38	395
FL-20	$44.44k	394
OH-13	$45.18k	393
GA-8	$45.28k	392
PA-1 (old)	$45.4k	391
MS-4	$45.44k	390
MS-3	$45.48k	389
TX-16	$45.56k	388
TX-18	$45.58k	387
MO-1	$45.79k	386
PA-14 (old)	$45.97k	385
NC-11	$46.34k	384
AL-3	$46.48k	383
CA-36	$46.49k	382
NC-5	$46.51k	381
AL-2	$46.58k	380
MI-14	$46.5k	379
TX-28	$46.78k	378
CA-34	$46.88k	377
FL-11	$46k	376
NC-10	$47.06k	375
OH-6	$47.07k	374
OH-3	$47.12k	373
CA-40	$47.19k	372
MO-7	$47.23k	371
NM-3	$47.33k	370
WV-1	$47.45k	369
FL-3	$47.61k	368
AZ-3	$47.67k	367
MS-1	$47.68k	366
TN-3	$47.68k	365
LA-3	$47.74k	364
AL-1	$47.98k	363
SC-3	$47k	362
CA-51	$48.04k	361
IL-17	$48.04k	360
TX-35	$48.28k	359
FL-6	$48.2k	358
NC-7	$48.35k	357
MI-1	$48.42k	356
WV-2	$48.43k	355
IL-12	$48.57k	354
TX-19	$48.59k	353
ME-2	$48.6k	352
TX-9	$48.74k	351
FL-2	$48.84	350
TX-1	$49.09k	349
NY-26	$49.15k	348
PA-9 (old)	$49.36k	347
KS-1	$49.38k	346
AZ-4	$49.39k	345
FL-17	$49.45k	344
MI-4	$49.45k	343
OR-4	$49.67k	342
NC-6	$49.87k	341
TX-30	$49.97k	340
OK-3	$50.09k	339
FL-25	$50.12k	338
GA-14	$50.13k	337
NM-1	$50.16k	336

While Republicans will only hold 50 percent of the 100 least affluent Congressional districts in the 116^th Congress, they have the opportunity to expand that number and carry the underlined districts but to do that, the Republicans will have to change their strategy a little bit.

TLC has a reality TV series called “Who Do You Think You Are?” Perhaps Republicans should participate in a reality show called “Who Do You Think Your Voters Are?” Republicans seem to have a hard time figuring that out. As Carlson pointed out during his interview with Vance, “the people who run the (Republican) Party are socially liberal and economically libertarian, the voters are economic nationalists and social conservatives.”

Vance pointed out that “what you hear consistently from Republican elites is that we need to moderate on the social issues and chart a really libertarian course on the economic issues.”  As Ann Coulter put it, “Year after year, the ‘moderate Republicans’ so respected at The New York Times harangue us to dump the Christians, the conservatives, the Swift Boat Veterans, the ‘right-wing extremists,’ the gun-and-God clingers and the pro-lifers from our party so we can repel every American who voted for Ronald Reagan in order to win the votes of people like Christie Todd Whitman.”

In 2016, eight years after Coulter wrote that column, “people like Christie Todd Whitman,” one of those “socially progressive” people that Vance talked about during his interview with Carlson, found themselves absolutely repulsed by President Trump while many Americans who voted for Ronald Reagan ended up supporting a Republican Presidential candidate for the first time in decades because, according to Vance, “they like the President’s views on immigration, they like the President’s views on abortion.” Vance argued that when it comes to economic issues, many of these people want to see the United States “stop hemorrhaging jobs to folks overseas” and “win trade wars against Mexico and especially the Chinese.” As Vance made these remarks, the caption at the bottom of the screen read “Vance: GOP Should Do The Opposite of What Establishment Party Elites Say They Should Do.”      

Adding up all of the numbers, in the 116^th Congress, more than half of the Democrats’ 235 seats in the House of Representatives will come from districts consisting of the “very, very rich” and the “very, very poor,” as Mitt Romney would say, while more than half of the Republicans’ 200 seats come from the middle class districts not listed in tables 1 or 2.  

Based on the results of the 2016 and 2018 elections alone, it should become quite clear that the myth of the “Republicans as the Party of the Rich” does not hold any value.  However, if Republicans really want to bust that myth once and for all, they should stop pandering to the interests of big business and wealthy Americans who no longer vote for them and start supporting an “America first” policy when it comes to immigration.  They can start by getting behind President Trump’s central campaign promise to build a wall on the Southern border with Mexico. Only then can they truly solidify their reputation as the party of America’s middle and working classes.

Click here for a link of the segment on “Tucker Carlson Tonight” discussed in this blog. The relevant segment begins at 13:17 and ends at 17:58.