Liberals Seek a Head Start in 2020
Like it or
not, the Democrats head into the 2020 Presidential Election with a head start
in the Electoral College. They can count
on California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Washington, Massachusetts,
Maryland, Connecticut, Oregon, Hawaii, Rhode Island, Delaware, Vermont, and the
District of Columbia to vote for the Democratic Presidential candidate. All of those states’ electoral votes add up
to 182; more than half to the 270 needed to clinch the presidency. On the other hand, Republicans can only count
on Tennessee, Indiana, Missouri, Alabama, South Carolina, Kentucky, Louisiana,
Oklahoma, Arkansas, Kansas, Mississippi, Utah, Nebraska, West Virginia, Idaho,
Alaska, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. The electoral votes of those states only add
up to 126. In other words, Democrats don’t
have to work as hard to get to 270. Now
for a little analogy to help make this point.
Republicans have to take the stairs when trying to get to the top floor
of a 50-story building while Democrats get to take the elevator. The elevator should get the Democrats there
faster or enable them to get to the top without having to do as much work or
exert as much effort but maybe not if the elevator has to stop to let people
off or pick people up on every floor. Republicans
can make it to the top first if they work very hard. The Democrats have and
will continue to do everything in their power to turn that analogical elevator
into a one-way nonstop express to the presidency.
Democrats also
have a head start when it comes to the battle to maintain control of the House
of Representatives. The Democrats have
235 House seats and 218 constitutes a majority.
Republicans will probably have to pick up at least 20 House seats in
order to dethrone Nancy Pelosi because even if Republicans pick up a lot of
House seats, they will probably still lose one or two. The Democrats can maintain control of the House
simply by maintaining control of every seat that Crooked Hillary either won outright
or that President Trump won with a mere plurality. That number adds up to more than 18. Historically, Presidents running for
re-election since World War II have only seen their parties gain an average of
seven House seats. Winning seven House seats
would not enable the Republicans to retake control of the House. On the other hand, President Trump carried 31 districts in 2016 that Democrats won in 2018.
Republicans only have to flip two-thirds of them in order to win;
although they should aim for more to make up for any potential losses and secure a larger majority.
Democrats have
successfully convinced courts to throw out Congressional districts in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and Pennsylvania in the past two election cycles. That has enabled Democrats to capture seats
in those states that they might not have won otherwise. Since the Democrats actually won control of the
House, one would think they would abandon their efforts to turn judges into
cartographers. After all, after this
upcoming election cycle, every state
in the union will have to draw new Congressional maps to reflect the findings
of the 2020 Census.
But no. The Democrats have still targeted the
Congressional maps of several purple and pink states. In Michigan, Republicans lost two seats to
Democrats in the 2018 midterms. President
Trump carried both districts; one with a small majority and the other with a
plurality. Following the 2018 midterms, Republicans
and Democrats each ended up with seven of Michigan’s 14 seats in the House of Representatives. That makes sense, as the Presidential race in
Michigan in 2018 basically resulted in a tie. However, the Democrats appear to
want even more seats; or at the very least to make the seats that their newly
elected incumbents won more favorable to the Democrats. A three-judge panel ruled that the
legislature must draw new districts by August because the current map
represents a gerrymander of “historical proportions.” Republicans have vowed to appeal the ruling. E-mail communications used as evidence by the
left of partisan bias when drawing the districts included a request to “cram
Dem garbage” into as few districts as possible.
In spite of the current map that they hate so much, Democrats could very
well pick up Michigan’s 6th Congressional District next year because
of three reasons: 1) they have already recruited a top tier candidate, 2) the
incumbent, Fred Upton, does not exactly excite the conservative base, and 3)
President Trump only carried the district with 51 percent of the vote in 2016.
Democrats
appear to have quite a few advantages going into the next round of redistricting. For one thing, several states, including
Michigan, have passed referendums establishing an independent redistricting
commission; which would give the responsibility of drawing Congressional and
state legislative maps to a commission with a combination of
Democrats, Republicans, and independents, taking the responsibility out of the
hands of the state legislatures. So far,
“independent redistricting commissions” have worked wonders for the Democrats. California, a blue state, established an independent
redistricting commission ahead of the 2012 election cycle; the first cycle to
apportion districts based on the 2010 Census.
Following the 2010 elections, Republicans held 19 Congressional
districts in California. California
Republicans would beg to have that number of seats today; Republicans have done
nothing but hemorrhage Congressional seats in the Golden State since the
1990s. Republicans ended up losing four seats in the 2012 election. They lost an
additional seat in 2014 when Republican Gary Miller decided not to run for
re-election in his district; which became more Democrat-friendly after
redistricting. In 2016, Hillary Clinton
won seven Congressional districts won by Republicans; all of them have Democratic
representatives in Congress following the 2018 elections. As of right now,
Republicans only control seven of California’s 53 seats in the House of
Representatives.
An “independent
redistricting commission” has also worked wonders for Democrats in
Arizona. Prior to the 2012 redistricting,
Republicans held five of the eight House seats in Arizona. As a result of the 2010 Census, Arizona
picked up a seat in the House of Representatives; meaning that the state would
have nine representatives instead of eight.
The commission dramatically altered the state’s Congressional districts;
resulting in Democrats ending up with five of the nine seats following the 2012
election. The Democrats probably could
not have asked for anything more; considering that Arizona still leans
Republican at the Presidential level.
These so-called independents seem to have more in common with Bernie
Sanders, who almost always votes with the Democrats, than a stereotypical
independent who has cast votes for both parties in recent elections.
In addition to
the fact that independent redistricting commissions will control the
redistricting process in a number of states, the Democrats also picked up quite
a few governorships in 2018. In many
states, the governor has veto power over maps drawn by legislature. The veto power will definitely come in handy
in the handful of states with Democratic governors where the GOP still controls the legislature.
Going back to
Michigan, the court decision currently requires the redrawing of nine of the
state’s 14 districts as well as the redrawing of ten districts in the State
Senate and 15 in the State House.
Because Michigan holds staggered Senate elections for half of its seats
every other year, affected Senate seats that would not normally end up on the
ballot in 2020 will have to hold special elections. Currently, Republicans hold 22 of the 38
seats in the Michigan Senate and 58 of the 110 seats in the Michigan House. The Democrats hope that this lawsuit will
cause the Republican majorities in both chambers of the Michigan legislature to
evaporate; enabling the state’s newly elected Democratic governor and
legislature to collaborate on bills championed by leftists in other states; perhaps
a version of the “Reprodcutive Health Care Act” that passed in New York or a
bill that would give free college to illegal immigrants.
Once again,
why not just wait one more cycle? Then,
the independent commission can draw the Congressional maps that the left has
spent the past seven years fantasizing about. To those who have not figured it
out yet, the left has much in common with Veruca Salt from “Willy Wonka and the
Chocolate Factory.” The song sung by
Salt in the movie has made a comeback in commercials for the Venetian resort in
Las Vegas. The song goes like this: “I
want the world, I want the whole world, and if I don’t get the things I am
after, I’m going to SCREAM! Give it to
me…NOW! I don’t care how, I want it NOW!” Substitute the word “world” for government
and that song describes 21st century liberals to a T.
The left’s war
on Congressional maps will not stop in Michigan. They likely have the last few remaining swing
states in their crosshairs; specifically Ohio. After all in 2018, they failed to make any net gains there in the 2018 election. When it comes to control of Congress, the
Democrats have adopted basically the same slogan used by the LGBTQ movement prior
to the legalization of gay marriage nationwide: “power can’t wait.”
When Democrats
have the chance to draw Congressional districts, they never, ever take politics
into account. Just kidding. Take a look
at the map of Maryland; frequently cited as one of the most gerrymandered in
the country. Prior to the 2012
redistricting, Republicans held two of the state’s eight House seats. The Democratic legislature, along with Democratic
governor Martin O’Malley, conspired to reduce that number to one. Republicans held the 1st District,
based on the Eastern Shore, in addition to the 6th District in the
western part of the state taking in parts of Appalachia and the Republican-leaning
parts of Northwestern Maryland. The new
map moved parts of heavily Democratic Montgomery County into the 6th
District; making that effectively unwinnable for Republicans, while moving
Frederick and Carroll Counties into the already heavily Democratic 8th
District. One might say that the
Democrats did their best to deprive “GOP garbage” of representation in Maryland’s
Congressional delegation. Democrats pulled similar shenanigans in the previous redistricting
cycle, where each party held four of the state’s eight House seats. The post-2002 map altered the districts in
such a way that made two of the Republican-held districts unwinnable for Republicans;
in addition to making the map look absolutely ridiculous. One of the two affected Republicans decided to
run for Governor instead of running for re-election; he succeeded. The other went down in defeat on Election Day
as liberals uttered the words “mission accomplished.”
In the past,
liberals have relied on the judicial branch to make social policy for the
entire nation. Now, they have stumbled
onto a new frontier: using the courts to help give them head starts in elections. They have modest success in their endeavor so
far. If they succeed in getting the
courts to yield to their latest set of demands, then America might have to put
up with Speaker Nancy Pelosi for the foreseeable future.
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