UPDATED: The Yellow Brick Road to Retaking the House Majority

On November 15 of last year, I published a blog entitled “The Yellow Brick Road to Retaking the House Majority.”  At the time, Republicans had lost 37 seats while a handful of races remained uncalled.  Because Republicans ended up losing 40 seats, the “yellow brick road” needs an update to reflect that total. I kept the majority of the text of the original article in tact with changes made in bold and certain portions deleted.

Well, Republicans lost 40 seats in the midterm elections, meaning that they will need a net gain of 18 in order to retake control.  Nearly half of the Democrats’ pickups came in districts carried by Hillary Clinton.  Republicans should probably write off most of those seats and focus on winning back the House by winning back many of the seats carried by President Trump in the 2016 Presidential Election they lost this year, in addition to trying to flip seats won by President Trump that Republicans have not held for decades.

Without further ado, take a look at the “yellow brick road” for retaking the House majority:  

      1. Win back Oklahoma’s 5^th Congressional District.  In the last several Presidential elections, the Republican candidate has swept every single county in Oklahoma, including Oklahoma County; home to Oklahoma City, the state’s capital and largest city. Republicans have an ideal candidate for the seat: Mick Cornett, the former Oklahoma City mayor who unsuccessfully ran for Governor this year.  Cornett carried Oklahoma County in the initial primary, which he won with a plurality of the vote.  However, Cornett failed to reach 50 percent of the vote, forcing him into a runoff with businessman Kevin Stitt, who ended up winning the runoff and becoming Governor.  Even in the runoff, Cornett still carried Oklahoma County, indicating that he has strong support in the largest population center of the 5^th district.  Stitt ended up losing Oklahoma County in the general election, the Democratic victory there may have contributed to Democrat Kendra Horn’s unexpected victory in the district.  Cornett had run for the seat in 2006, losing to Mary Fallin, who later ended up becoming Governor of Oklahoma.  Republicans should absolutely make sure not to run Fallin; she left office with a 19 percent approval rating.  (+1)

     2. Win back South Carolina’s 1^st Congressional District. Going into Election Day, it looked like any Republican losses in the Carolinas would come from North Carolina, not South Carolina.  Believe it or not, the Republicans actually ended up losing a seat in South Carolina, which became open when its current occupant, Mark Sanford, lost his primary to Katie Arrington, after President Trump tweeted out his support for her and criticized Sanford.  President Trump won the 1^st District with 53.5 percent of the vote in 2016. Considering the fact that a Senate race will take place simultaneously with the Presidential Election, that should definitely help Republicans.  (+1)

     3. Win back at least two seats out west.  President Trump carried Arizona’s 1^st Congressional district, Nevada’s 3^rd Congressional district, New Mexico’s 2^nd Congressional district, and Utah’s 4^th Congressional District in the 2016 Presidential Election.  A Democrat has held AZ-1 since the redrawn district first emerged following the 2010 Census.  Republicans held the seat in Nevada as recently as 2016, when its Congressman Joe Heck, retired to unsuccessfully run for the Senate.  With all due respect, Danny Tarkanian, the Republican Party’s nominee for the 3^rd District in the past two races, sucks as a candidate.  He couldn’t manage to win either time despite the fact that President Trump carried the seat in 2016 and he did not face an incumbent in either election. If Republicans want to flip the seat, they need to pick someone else. As of right now, New Mexico’s 2^nd Congressional District and Utah’s 4^th Congressional District look like the easiest pickups for the Republicans. NM-2 only flipped because its former Congressman, Steve Pearce, opted to run for Governor rather than run for re-election.  The last time Pearce gave up his seat to make an unsuccessful statewide bid, he successfully won his seat back two years later.  Hopefully, Pearce will run for his old seat and win.  In Utah’s 4^th Congressional District, incumbent Mia Love only lost by 0.2 points and Hillary Clinton won a measly 32 percent of the vote. President Trump did not perform much better; winning only 39 percent of the vote, while the remainder went to Evan McMuffin.  (+2)

    4. Win back at least three seats in New York.  Republicans lost New York’s 11^th Congressional District (Staten Island) and the upstate-based New York’s 19^th Congressional District, and New York’s 22^nd Congressional District in the 2018 elections.  President Trump carried all three of those districts, in addition to New York’s 18^th Congressional District, which Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney has represented since 2012. President Trump carried the 11^th and 22^nd Districts with well over 50 percent of the vote in 2016 while he carried New York’s 19^th and 18^th Congressional Districts, both located at least partially in the New York metropolitan area, by smaller margins. (+3)

   5. Win back at least one “rust belt” seat overwhelmingly carried by President Trump.  President Trump carried Minnesota’s 7^th Congressional District with more than 60 percent of the vote in 2016.  Pennsylvania’s 8^th Congressional District voted for President Trump by a 15-point margin.  The incumbent in Minnesota’s 7^th Congressional district, only won re-election with 52 percent of the vote this year while the incumbent in Pennsylvania’s 8^th Congressional district only won re-election with 54 percent of the vote. (+1)

   6. Win back at least two seats in Virginia. Of the three seats Republicans lost in Virginia, Virginia’s 7^th Congressional District seems most likely to flip back into the “R” column.  President Trump won the district with roughly 51 percent of the vote, in contrast to a smaller margin of victory in Virginia’s 2^nd Congressional District, and his loss in Virginia’s 10^th Congressional District.  (+2)

    7. Win back at least one seat in Michigan. Republicans lost in Michigan’s 8^th Congressional District, which President Trump carried with more than 50 percent of the vote, and Michigan’s 11^th Congressional District, which President Trump only carried with a plurality.  President Trump will surely target Michigan in 2018 and his presence in the state should help put at least one of the challengers to the new freshmen Congresswomen over the top.  (+1)

   8. Win back at least one “rust belt” seat narrowly carried by President Trump. Republicans should keep their fingers crossed that Illinois Senator Dick Durbin changes his mind and retires. In the event of that happening, they should do everything they can to ensure that Congresswoman Cheri Bustos runs for his seat. Bustos represents Illinois’s 17^th Congressional District, an industrial district in Western Illinois that President Trump carried in 2016. Her absence on the ballot removes the incumbency advantage and would help Republicans recruit a high-quality candidate for the seat.  Another option, Wisconsin’s 3^rd Congressional district; has not had a Republican representative for nearly a quarter of a century but President Trump carried it with 49 percent of the vote in 2016. (+1) 

   9. Win back at least one seat in New England.  Not one of the Congressional districts in New England will have a Republican representative in the 116^th Congress.  President Trump won New Hampshire’s 1^st Congressional District in the 2016 Presidential Election and came very close to winning in New Hampshire’s 2^nd Congressional district.  Of all the New England seats, Maine’s 2^nd Congressional District looks like the easiest pickup, as President Trump won it by double digits. He will likely win it again in 2020 but ranked-choice voting may present the biggest obstacle to Republicans defeating its incumbent Democratic representative in Congress. In the 2018 election, Republican Bruce Poliquin won with a plurality of the vote but the implementation of ranked-choice voting enabled the Democrat to win with a very narrow majority of the vote on the second ballot. (+1)

   10. Win back three seats in Iowa. In 2016, President Trump carried all four of Iowa’s Congressional districts.  After the 2018 elections, Republicans only control one of them.  Based on the results of the 2018 elections, Iowa’s 3^rd Congressional District looks like the easiest pickup; incumbent Congressman David Young only lost by a little less than two percentage points.  However, a golden opportunity fell into Republicans’ laps the second Democratic Congressman Dave Loesback of Iowa’s 2^nd Congressional District announced his decision to retire.  Iowa’s 1^st Congressional District also looks winnable for Republicans; the incumbent only lost by single digits in 2018.   (+3)

   11. Win back at least two seats in New Jersey: Democrats nearly swept Republicans out of power in New Jersey; in the 116^th Congress, only one of the state’s twelve Congressional districts will have a Republican representative.  Democrats picked up two open seats and ousted two Republican incumbents.  President Trump won New Jersey’s 2^nd District and New Jersey’s 3^rd Congressional District with more than 50 percent of the vote while he carried New Jersey’s 11^th Congressional District with a plurality of the vote.  (+2)

   12. Win back at least two “suburban” districts: The Republicans lost a series of “suburban” districts across several states where President Trump won with less than 50 percent of the vote.  Districts that come to mind include Georgia’s 6^th Congressional District, Illinois’s 14^th Congressional District, Minnesota’s 2^nd Congressional District, and Pennsylvania’s 17^th Congressional District.  Based on the numbers alone, Republicans should have an easier time picking up Georgia 6 and Illinois 14; they lost those districts by extremely small margins.  President Trump will probably make an appearance or two in Georgia, which may emerge as a crucial battleground state in 2020.  He will probably also want to campaign on behalf of Senator David Perdue’s re-election bid.  Perdue finds himself among only a handful of Senators actually committed to implementing an “America first” immigration system.  (+2)

So, following that “yellow brick road” I laid out would lead to Republicans picking up 20 seats; enough to give them a bare majority in the 116^th Congress; assuming they lose two Republican-held seats.  If Republicans want a bigger majority (they most certainly do), then they will probably have to overperform in all of the categories listed above; for instance, by winning three or all four of the Trump-won, Democratic-held seats out west, sweeping the Trump-won districts in the rust belt, and winning back more seats in Michigan and suburbia.  Other targets include the Democratic-held districts Hillary carried with less than 50 percent of the vote: Arizona’s 2^nd Congressional District, California’s 10^th Congressional District, California’s 45^th Congressional District, California’s 48^th Congressional District, Connecticut’s 2^nd Congressional District, Connecticut’s 5^th Congressional District, Florida’s 13^th Congressional District, Kansas’s 3^rd Congressional District, Michigan’s 5^th Congressional District, New Hampshire’s 2^nd Congressional District (mentioned above), New Jersey’s 7^th Congressional District, Oregon’s 4^th Congressional District, Oregon’s 5^th Congressional District, Texas’s 7^th Congressional District, Texas’s 32^nd Congressional District, and Washington’s 8^th Congressional District. Winning most or all of these seats could enable Republicans to rebuild the majority they lost in 2018. 

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