How to Lose Voters and Alienate People

In every single election cycle, some incumbents seeking re-elections lose their primaries. Well-established Democrats lost their primaries to insurgents Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ayanna Pressley while Trump critic Mark Sanford lost renomination to Katie Arrington, a supporter of President Trump (at least since the 2016 general election). 

Depending on where a primary takes place, it can have devastating consequences.  While Ocasio-Cortez’s and Pressley’s upset victories had little impact on the general election in their deep blue districts, the messy primary in South Carolina’s 1^st Congressional District, which Sanford represented, arguably cost Republicans that seat in 2018.  Back in 2012, Republicans effectively kissed goodbye a Senate seat in Indiana when State Treasurer Richard Mourdock beat six-term Senator Richard Lugar in a Republican primary.  Mourdock ended up losing the general election to Democrat Joe Donnelly, who served one term in the Senate before his defeat in the 2018 election.

Going back to 2018, a primary challenge in North Carolina’s 9^th Congressional District caused Republicans a bunch of unexpected headaches.  Mark Harris, who ousted incumbent Republican Congressman Robert Pittenger, narrowly beat Democrat Dan McCready on Election Day 2018. However, the State Board of Elections refused to certify the results because of allegations of fraud. Eventually, the Board determined that a new election must take place.  Solely because of the successful primary challenge, the seat in North Carolina’s 9^th Congressional District has remained empty and will continue to remain empty until the special election takes place in September.  Winning the empty seat will not make that much of a difference in this Congress, since the Democrats will still hold the majority even if Republicans capture the seat.  Even unsuccessful primaries can leave incumbents weakened and bruised headed into the general election.  That may have happened in New York’s 11^th Congressional District last year, where incumbent Republican Dan Donovan had to face off against former Congressman and convicted felon Michael Grimm in the GOP primary.  Donovan prevailed but ended up losing the general election to a Democrat. 

On the other hand, primaries can also serve as a saving grace for a political party in a seat dogged by an unpopular incumbent. In 2014, Democratic Congressman John Tierney of Massachusetts surely would have lost to a Republican in the general election if he had made it that far.  However, now-Congressman Seth Moulton defeated him in the Democratic primary, enabling him to keep the seat blue.  The same may end up happening in New York’s 27^th Congressional District in the 2020 election, where incumbent Chris Collins only barely won re-election in the most Republican district in New York State due to charges of insider trading.  Collins has already attracted one primary challenger and will likely have to face off against a few more.  Collins certainly did not help his case when he suggested doubling the gas tax and airline fees in order to pay for the infrastructure project. Since his district does not consist of an inner city, that means a majority of his constituents use cars to get around.  In other words, his constituents will feel the pain of an increased gas tax.

Other scandal-plagued incumbents including Duncan Hunter of California and Ross Spano of Florida may also do their parties a favor by stepping aside. Of this trio, Collins did the worst in his most recent re-election performance and his district voted for President Trump by the strongest margin in 2016. 

In some cases, primary challenges might do more harm than good.  Primarying the three House Republicans who represent districts carried by Hillary Clinton might not help that much since they already have to worry about defeating a Democratic opponent in the general election. On the other hand, primarying Republicans who vote like liberals while representing deep red districts might have a positive effect for the party.

In my opinion, voting against President Trump’s national emergency and supporting the Equality Act merit primary challenges more than anything else; in addition to voting against wall funding. 

A total of 13 House Republicans voted to block President Trump’s national emergency declaration; including two of the three blue district Republicans, Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania and Congressman Will Hurd of Texas.  Greg Walden of Oregon and Jim Sensenbrenner of Wisconsin, who also disagreed that the situation on the border constitutes a national emergency, both represent deep-red districts that President Trump won with more than 55 percent of the vote; making it unlikely that in their absence from the ticket, the seat would go to a Democrat.  Sensenbrenner, a septuagenarian who has served in Congress since 1980, might choose to retire while getting rid of Walden would likely require the emergence of a primary challenger.

A total of eight House Republicans voted for the “Equality Act,” which I wrote about extensively two weeks ago. All three House Republicans who represent districts won by Hillary Clinton; Fitzpatrick, Hurd, and John Katko of New York.  In addition, Walden and Congresswoman Elise Stefanik of New York, who also voted to oppose the national emergency, voted for the Equality Act. House leadership has remained loyal to Stefanik because she has put together a Political Action Committee to get more Republican women to run for Congress.  She flipped her district from blue to red in 2014, two years after President Obama carried during his re-election bid. President Trump carried the district with 53 percent of the vote in 2016.  It seems unlikely that her district, which consists of rural northern New York and includes the former industrial powerhouse of Plattsburgh, will flip back to the Democrats; especially now that many in the party have expressed support for the Green New Deal; which will effectively put the final nail in the coffin of the rust belt.

Mario Diaz-Balart of South Florida also voted for the Equality Act, although he did support the President’s declaration of a National Emergency. While President Trump won Stefanik’s district quite comfortably, an especially encouraging accomplishment considering the fact that President Obama carried her district twice, President Trump barely kept Diaz-Balart’s district in the red column.  Diaz-Balart won re-election by double digits in 2018, even though President Trump only won his district by two percentage points two years earlier.

Another Republican who supported the Equality Act, Congressman Tom Reed, represents the district of my birth in upstate New York.  The district includes the “Southern Tier” of New York including cities such as Corning and Elmira, as well as a small portion of the Finger Lakes region.  Outside of the socialist, academic bubble of Ithaca, the district votes Republican.  Accordingly, President Trump won the district by 15 points in 2016. Reed also joined Stefanik, Fitzpatrick, Katko, Hurd, and four others in voting with Democrats on a symbolic resolution condemning the Trump administration’s support for invalidating Obamacare.  On immigration, Reed, like Stefanik, voted against the Goodlatte Bill, arguably the best piece of legislation proposed thus far to deal with immigration as a whole besides the RAISE Act. Keep in mind that Republicans have spent every election since 2010 promising to repeal and replace Obamacare and have yet to do so.

These “others” who supported the nonbinding Obamacare resolution include Fred Upton, the uncle of swimsuit model Kate Upton, who represents Michigan’s 6^th Congressional District. In addition to bucking the Trump administration on its support for a, Upton also voted against wall funding and against the National Emergency.  Upton has served in Congress for nearly three decades; maybe that explains why he appears to have lost touch with his constituents.  President Trump won the district with 51 percent of the vote in 2016.  If Upton had voted for the Equality Act, then he would probably end up as # 1 on the list of House Republicans most worthy of a primary challenge.

However, the top spot goes to another member of Michigan’s GOP Congressional Delegation: Congressman Justin Amash.  No one in the Republican Party has done more to “lose voters and alienate people” than Amash. While quite a few House Republicans don’t like President Trump, Amash has taken his dislike of the President to a whole new level by calling for his impeachment. Amash’s district supported President Trump with an identical share of the vote as Michigan’s 6^th Congressional District.  Amash’s greatest hits include voting against wall funding as well as joining with Democrats in opposing President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency

Amash has already attracted two primary challengers; outsider Tom Norton and State Representative Jim Lower.  A rumor has floated around that Amash may opt not to run for re-election and instead seek the Libertarian Party’s Presidential nomination.  Trump supporters gave Amash an earful at a recent town hall meeting. One of the women, Anna Timmer, even volunteered on Amash’s first campaign for Congress back in 2010.  Despite his attempt to portray himself as a libertarian purist, Amash completely dismissed Timmer’s concerns about FISA abuses regarding the Trump-Russia probe; calling the focus on FISA an “excuse.”

During an appearance on “Watters’ World,” Timmer claimed that Amash “voted against defunding sanctuary cities and Kate’s Law.”  In addition, Right to Life of Michigan’s withdrawal of support for Amash came up during the interview. In 2014, the pro-life group backed Amash’s primary challenger Brian Ellis over the Congressman because he voted “present” on a bill to defund Planned Parenthood and voted against a bill that would have outlawed sex-selection abortions.

In addition to differentiating himself from every single other Republican on Capitol Hill, Amash’s calls for impeachment also differs from the strategy of a majority of Democrats in the House of Representatives.  As of right now, only 54 House Democrats have come out in favor of impeachment.  While that number continues to grow, it still amounts to less than one-fourth of the total number of House Democrats. 

In my opinion, the following House Republicans have done the most to deserve primary challengers.  I have compiled this list using a formula similar to the RAISE Act, which would award points to potential immigrants based on factors such as education level.  So, take a look at my formula: 20 points for calling for President Trump’s impeachment, 15 points for voting for the Equality Act, ten points for voting against the National Emergency, ten points for voting against wall funding, ten points for scandal-plagued incumbents, five points for voting to condemn the Trump administration’s support for scrapping Obamacare, five points for voting against Kate’s Law, and five points for calling for an increase on the gas tax.  I will subtract 25 points from a score if a House Republican represents a district where President Trump captured less than 50 percent of the vote, and I will subtract five points from a score if a House Republican represents a district where President Trump received between 50 and 55 percent of the vote. Without further ado, take a look at the list; each representative who deserves a primary challenge has their “score” next to their name in parentheses.

Top 5 House Republicans worthy of a primary challenge:

1.      Justin Amash, MI-3 (40)

2.      Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (25)-tie

3.      Greg Walden, OR-2 (25)-tie

4.      Tom Reed, NY-23 (20)-tie

5.      Fred Upton, MI-6 (20)-tie

6.      Chris Collins, NY-27 (15)

7.      Jim Sensenbrenner, WI-5 (10)

For the record, if any of these Republicans win their primaries (at least some of them probably will), Republicans in their districts should support them.  Even a bad Republican beats a Pelosi stooge in my book.