Senate 2020: Democrats Strike Out, Republicans Strike Gold

With the 2020 election less than 18 months away, both houses of Congress and the presidency remain in the balance.  While both sides have their eyes on the big prize, the presidency, controlling one or both houses of the legislature will have a major impact on the ability of whoever wins the 2020 Presidential Election to enact their agenda into law.

Let’s take a look at the math.  President Trump needs 270 electoral votes to win re-election.  His path to reaching (and exceeding) that magic number went through the rust belt in 2016 and he will likely have to perform well there in 2020 if he wants a second term. Fortunately for him, Democrats have embraced insane policy ideas such as the Green New Deal, the Equality Act, and the abolition of the Hyde Amendment; all of which should turn off the “economically nationalist, socially conservative” voters that decided the election in 2016. 

As for the Senate, the Democrats will need three or four seats to retake control; depending on who wins the presidency. Currently, Republicans hold 53 Senate seats and Democrats hold 47. While technically, the Democrats only hold 45 Senate seats, the two so-called “independents” caucus with the Democrats and vote with them nearly all the time. If a Democrat wins the presidency in 2020, the abortion party would only need three seats to gain control of the Senate since the Vice President casts the tie-breaking vote in the event of a 50-50 Senate.  If President Trump wins re-election, the Democrats would need four seats to win the Senate; since Vice President Mike Pence would cast the tie-breaking vote in the event of a 50-50 Senate.

34 Senators will stand for re-election in 2020.  33 of them will run in regularly scheduled elections while appointed Republican Senator Martha McSally will run to finish out the final two years of Senator John McCain’s term.  On paper, the Democrats have an advantage; since they only have to defend 12 of the 34 seats while Republicans have to defend 22. 

However, most of the Senate contests with Republican incumbents on defense will take place in deep-red states.  Only two of the 22 Republican Senators up for re-election next year will have to run in states won by Hillary Clinton; Senator Cory Gardner of Colorado and Senator Susan Collins of Maine.  If President Trump wins re-election in a landslide, then he could very well end up carrying both of those states.

As for the 12 seats where Democrats find themselves on defense, two Senate Democrats will have to run in states won by President Trump in 2016; Senator Doug Jones of Alabama and Senator Gary Peters of Michigan.  Even if President Trump loses in a landslide, he will still win Alabama; meaning that Jones will have the most difficult path to re-election of any Senator on the ballot next year.

In preparation for the Senate elections next year, both sides have tried to recruit the candidates that they think have the best shot of flipping certain Senate seats of either party.   Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has had little luck recruiting his ideal candidates; many of whom have decided to run for President.  Former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper and Montana Governor Steve Bullock have decided to run for President rather than challenge first-term incumbents in their respective home states while Schumer’s top three choices for Senate in Texas have all decided against running.  Former San Antonio Mayor Julian Castro has decided to join the exponentially large presidential field while his twin brother Joaquin has opted to run for re-election to his seat in the House of Representatives.  Former Congressman, Beto O’Rourke, who lost to Republican Senator Ted Cruz by a narrow margin in 2018, has also decided to seek the presidency rather than take another stab at flipping a Texas Senate seat blue.  Whoever ends up running in Texas will have to run against Senator John Cornyn, who has won his two previous re-election bids quite easily.  Finally, failed Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, who still refuses to accept that she lost the election, has decided against a Senate run but has left the door open to becoming the 25^th major candidate to seek the Democratic nomination for President.

As of right now, it looks like the Democrats could only recruit one of their dream candidates in one state: Arizona.  Astronaut Mark Kelly, home of shooting victim and former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords, has thrown his hat into the ring.  Polling has shown Kelly running neck-and-neck with Senator McSally.  By the time Election Day rolls around, however, many Arizona voters might decide that many of Kelly’s ideas, especially gun control, belong in outerspace. 

The Democrats should have the easiest time picking up Colorado, since Hillary won the state by nearly five points in 2016.  However, in Hickenlooper’s absence, approximately 20,000 Democrats have entered the primary; with no clear favorite emerging.  A nasty primary could help Senator Gardner win re-election, even if the Democratic presidential candidate carries the state. 

A competitive primary has also emerged in the race to take on Alabama’s Democratic Senator Doug Jones, who only won because of the decades-old sexual assault allegations that emerged against the Republican candidate, Roy Moore.  Not surprisingly, #TheResistance showed up at full strength to vote against Moore while many Republicans felt quite lukewarm about supporting him; allowing Jones to pull off an upset.  Alabama loves President Trump; he has one of his highest approval ratings in the country there and he won the state in 2016 by 25 points. So far, the race includes Congressman Bradley Byrne, former Auburn Tigers football head coach Tommy Tuberville, businessman Stanley Adair, and state representative Arnold Mooney.  Jones will have to fend off a primary challenger himself, state representative John Rogers, who made headlines for his controversial remarks on abortion.

While the Democrats have struck out in most of their recruiting efforts, the Republicans have struck gold in Michigan.  Businessman John James, the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2018, has announced that he will challenge first-term Senator Gary Peters.  Peters should have had a harder time winning in 2014; after all, he had to run for an open seat in an absolutely awful environment for Democrats. However, his opponent self-destructed; enabling him to win the seat by double digits as most Democrats in the rest of the country got routed.  With James on the ballot in 2020, Peters’s luck might just run out.

In 2018, Republicans failed to flip Senate seats in the three rust belt states that provided President Trump with his victory; Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.  Republicans came closest to flipping the seat in Michigan, where incumbent Debbie Stabenow beat James by 6.5 percentage points. For a little perspective, Stabenow beat her previous two Republican opponents by double digits.  James ran ahead of Michigan’s Republican candidate for the governorship and outperformed expectations predicted in the polls.  In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the Democratic Senators won re-election by double digits. 

In 2020, James has the luxury of running against a first-termer; as opposed to a veteran like Stabenow. James and President Trump have a mutually beneficial relationship; each could benefit from each other’s presence on the ballot.  The two could campaign together as “outsiders,” in contrast to the Democratic ticket; which will almost certainly consist of two candidates who have spent nearly their entire careers in politics. Peters definitely qualifies as a political insider; he spent nearly a decade in the Michigan House of Representatives before becoming the Commissioner of the Michigan Lottery.  He spent three terms as the Representative for Michigan’s 14^th Congressional District, one of the most Democratic districts in the state. 

So far, three Republican Senators have up for re-election in 2020 have announced that they will not seek another term.  Incumbent Senators in Kansas, Tennessee, and Wyoming have opted to call it quits; providing Republicans to replace them with some high-quality conservative candidates.  Prior to 2019, Tennessee had two rather lackluster Senators for such a conservative state.  Both Senators Bob Corker and Lamar Alexander had voted for the “Gang of Eight” bill. Corker became a thorn in President Trump’s side as his term in the Senate came to a close and he opted not to run for re-election. Marsha Blackburn, a real conservative, won Corker’s seat in 2018; and now another real conservative can join her in the Senate, as Alexander has announced his retirement. Potential candidates include former Congresswoman Diane Black, who ran unsuccessfully for governor last year, a handful of other members of Tennessee’s former and current Republican Congressional delegation. Maybe Republicans could recruit Dr. Carol Swain, a well-known voice in the conservative movement, if her bid to become mayor of Nashville does not succeed.

Republicans may think they have struck out in New Hampshire, as Republican Governor Chris Sununu opted to run for re-election as opposed to seeking the Senate seat currently held by Democrat Jeanne Shaheen.  Sununu won re-election last year, even as the Democrats took control of both houses of the state legislature.  While polling showed Sununu neck-and-neck with Shaheen, his “pro-choice” position on abortion makes him less desirable as a national candidate.  To those who think that a “pro-choice” position on abortion serves as a prerequisite for running for statewide office in New Hampshire, remember that the state had a pro-life Senator, Kelly Ayotte, as recently as 2016.  Republicans came close to defeating Shaheen in 2014 but ultimately fell short. Ayotte could possibly run again; after all, she played an instrumental role in the nomination of Neil Gorsuch to the Supreme Court.  However, Ayotte voted for the “gang of eight” bill and distanced herself from President Trump following the Access Hollywood tape. Still, Ayotte may have what it takes to defeat a battle-tested incumbent like Shaheen in a purple to blue state.  

While Republicans appear to have struck gold when it comes to candidate recruitment, at least in Michigan, they could still strike out on Election Day.  After all, Democrats thought popular former Tennessee Governor Phil Bredesen would help them flip Corker’s Senate seat from red to blue.  Blackburn won by double digits.  Democrats thought by playing dirty and replacing the Democratic candidate for the Indiana Senate seat with the more “electable” former Senator Evan Bayh four days before the withdrawal deadline, they had guaranteed a Democratic victory on Election Day 2016.  However, Republican Todd Young won the seat; crushing the Democrats’ dreams.  In other words, the fact that Republicans have struck gold by recruiting John James should make it more likely that Republicans will win a Senate race in Michigan for the first time in two decades but does not guarantee it.  Similarly, just because Democrats have struck out in candidate recruitment, does not mean they can’t flip a Senate seat here or there. Polling shows little-known Democratic Senate candidate Erica Smith beating incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis; although the same poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden beating President Trump by double digits.  At this point, however, it looks more likely that Mitch McConnell or any other Republican will hold the title of Senate Majority Leader in the 117^th Congress and Republicans should do everything they can to make that happen; in addition to dethroning Nancy Pelosi and re-electing President Trump.  Just 514 days remain between now and the 2020 election.