The 2020 Battleground Begins to Take Shape

With the 2020 election a little more than a year away, both the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have released their respective lists of battleground districts.  Considering the lack of detail in those lists, I have decided to fill in the blanks.

The RCCC has identified 55 Democratic-held districts where they will go on “offense” by trying to flip the seats from red to blue.  Republicans can lose slightly more than half of these seats and still retake the House majority. I compiled a list of the districts below; highlighting President Trump’s margin of victory in 2016, courtesy of The Daily Kos, and the incumbent Democrat’s margin of victory in 2018. I bolded the districts that Democrats have included in their “Frontline” program to protect their most vulnerable incumbents. I listed the districts in alphabetical order with one exception: Connecticut’s 5^th Congressional District.  The Democrats included CT-5 on their list of seats to protect but the Republicans did not include it on their list of targets.

District	Trump Margin, 2016	Incumbent Margin, 2018
AZ-1	+1.1	+7.6
AZ-2	-4.9	+9.4
CA-10	-3.0	+4.6
CA-21	-15.5	+0.8
CA-25	-6.7	+8.8
CA-39	-8.6	+3.2
CA-45	-5.4	+4.2
CA-48	-1.7	+7.2
CA-49	-7.5	+12.8
CO-6	-8.9	+11.2
FL-7	-7.3	+15.4
FL-13	-3.2	+15.2
FL-26	-16.3	+1.8
FL-27	-19.6	+6.0
GA-6	+1.5	+1.0
IL-6	-7.0	+7.2
IL-14	+3.9	+5.0
IL-17	+0.7	+24.2
IA-1	+3.5	+5.1
IA-2	+4.1	+12.2
IA-3	+3.5	+2.1
KS-3	-1.2	+9.7
ME-2	+10.3	+1.0
MI-8	+6.7	+3.8
MI-11	+4.4	+6.6
MN-2	+1.2	+5.6
MN-3	-9.4	+11.4
MN-7	+30.8	+4.2
NV-3	+1.0	+9.1
NV-4	-4.9	+8.2
NH-1	+1.6	+8.6
NJ-2	+4.6	+7.7
NJ-3	+6.2	+1.3
NJ-5	+1.1	+14.1
NJ-7	-1.1	+5.0
NJ-11	+0.9	+14.7
NM-2	+10.2	+1.8
NY-11	+9.8	+6.4
NY-18	+1.9	+11.0
NY-19	+6.8	+5.2
NY-22	+15.5	+1.8
OK-5	+13.4	+1.4
OR-4	-0.1	+15.1
PA-7	-1.1	+10.0
PA-8	+9.5	+9.2
PA-17	+2.5	+12.6
SC-1	+13.1	+1.4
TX-7	-1.4	+5.0
TX-32	-1.9	+6.5
UT-4	+6.7	+0.2
VA-2	+3.4	+2.2
VA-7	+6.5	+2.0
VA-10	-10.0	+12.4
WA-8	-3.0	+4.8
WI-3	+4.5	+19.4
CT-5	-4.1	+11.8

The list does not include the following districts, which Democrats only carried with a plurality of the vote in 2016: Connecticut’s 2^nd Congressional District, Michigan’s 5^th Congressional District, New Hampshire’s 2^nd Congressional District, and Oregon’s 5^th Congressional District. The incumbents’ strong performances in these districts in 2018 may have scared the RCCC from going on “offense” there.

The DCCC has released a list of 36 Republican-held seats where they plan to go on “offense” in 2016. Democrats do not have to win any of these seats in order to maintain the House majority but winning some or most of these seats could help them make up for losses elsewhere as they seek to maintain control of the lower chamber. I listed the districts in alphabetical order with the exceptions of Alaska’s at-large Congressional District, Kansas’s 2^nd Congressional District, and Texas’s 31^st Congressional District; which the Republicans have included on their list of seats to protect but the Democrats have excluded from their list of targets. I bolded the districts that Republicans have included in their “Patriot Program” designed to protect vulnerable incumbents in 2020.

District	Trump Margin, 2016	Incumbent Margin, 2018
AZ-6	+10.0	+10.4
CA-50	+15.0	+3.4
CO-3	+12.0	+7.9
FL-15	+10.0	+6.0
FL-16	+10.7	+9.2
FL-18	+9.2	+8.6
GA-7	+6.3	+0.1
IL-13	+5.5	+0.8
IN-5	+11.8	+13.6
IA-4	+27.4	+3.4
KY-6	+15.3	+3.2
MI-3	+9.4	+11.2
MI-6	+8.4	+4.5
MN-1	+14.9	+0.4
MO-2	+10.3	+4.0
NE-2	+2.2	+2.0
NY-1	+12.3	+4.1
NY-2	+9.1	+6.2
NY-24	-3.6	+5.2
NY-27	+24.5	+0.3
NC-2	+9.6	+5.5
NC-9	+11.6	+0.4*
NC-13	+9.4	+6.0
OH-1	+6.6	+4.4
OH-12	+11.3	+4.2
PA-1	-2.0	+2.6
PA-10	+8.9	+2.6
PA-16	+19.9	+4.3
TX-10	+9.1	+4.3
TX-21	+10.0	+2.6
TX-22	+7.9	+4.9
TX-23	-3.4	+0.5
TX-24	+6.2	+3.2
TX-31	+12.7	+2.9
VA-5	+11.1	+6.6
WA-3	+7.4	+5.4
AK-AL	+15.2	+6.6
KS-2	+18.4	+0.8

In 2018, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee initiated a “red to blue” program, which its website describes as “a highly competitive and battle-tested program…that arms top-tier candidates with organizational and fundraising support to help them continue to run top tier campaigns.” The DCCC predicted that “come November, these candidates and others will take the fight to Paul Ryan’s House Republicans – and flip these seats from red to blue.”

Ahead of the 2020 election, it looks like the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee has decided to do something similar; releasing a list of “On the Radar” candidates. The initial list of “On the Radar” candidates consists of 43 candidates spread out across 30 districts; most of them currently held by Democrats. While the list will shrink as primary elections take place, it will also grow as more candidates decide to throw their hats into the ring. The NRCC released the list on August 16 and many more Republican candidates have decided to run for Congress since then.

For a little context, the “red to blue” list included more than 90 candidates and slightly less than 50 percent of them ended up winning their races. Flipping slightly less than half of the districts listed below will not enable Republicans to retake control of the House. Check out the RCCC’s list of “On the Radar” candidates:

AL-1: Bill Hightower and Chris Pringle have emerged as the “On the Radar” candidates in an open, Republican-held seat President Trump carried by more than 25 points. Barring catastrophe, any Republican candidate should have no problem winning this seat.

CA-10: Bob Elliott and Ted Howze hope to take on Democratic incumbent Josh Harder, who unseated amnesty enthusiast Jeff Denham last year. President Trump lost this district by three points in 2016.

CA-25: Mike Garcia and Angela Underwood Jacobs hope to unseat first-term Democratic Congresswoman Katie Hill in a district Hillary Clinton carried with a narrow majority in 2016.

CA-39: Young Kim came up short in her bid to become the first Korean-American Congresswoman in 2018 thanks to ballot harvesting. She hopes to win a rematch with Democrat Gil Cisneros in 2020 but will likely have an uphill battle in a district Hillary Clinton carried with more than 51 percent of the vote.

CA-45: Peggy Huang, Greg Raths, Don Sedgwick, and Lisa Sparks hope to recapture this seat, where Hillary Clinton just barely failed to reach 50 percent of the vote.

CA-48: Michelle Park Steel hopes to unseat one-term incumbent Harley Rouda in a district President Trump narrowly lost by less than two points.

CA-49: Brian Maryott hopes to win a district that Hillary Clinton carried with a narrow majority of the vote in 2016.

FL-13: Amanda Makki hopes to unseat incumbent Charlie Crist in a district President Trump only narrowly lost in 2016.

FL-26: Irina Valarino hopes to unseat first-term incumbent Debbie Mucarsel Powell in a district President Trump lost by nearly 20 points in 2016.

FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar probably could have beaten Democrat Donna Shalala in a different environment. Shalala does not even speak Spanish in the heavily Latino district. Salazar, who has high name ID from her time as a television journalist, has decided to run for a rematch in a district that President Trump lost by nearly 20 points.

GA-6: Karen Handel only narrowly lost re-election in a district President Trump narrowly carried in 2016.

GA-7: Ben Bullock, Lynne Homrich, and Renee Unterman hope to keep a seat that the retiring Republican incumbent only narrowly held onto in 2018 in the red column. President Trump won the district with a bare majority of the vote in 2016.

IL-6: Evelyn Sanguinetti, the former Lieutenant Governor of Illinois, hopes to unseat one-term incumbent Sean Casten in a district President Trump lost by seven points in 2016. Noticeably, the “on the radar” list does not include Jeanne Ives, who nearly defeated then-incumbent Republican Governor Bruce Rauner in the Republican Primary last year.

IL-14: Jim Oberweis has run for this seat before and lost but the RCCC still sees him as a strong recruit to take on incumbent Lauren Underwood, an impeachment enthusiast who flipped a district that President Trump won by nearly five points in 2016. The RCCC released their list of “On the Radar” candidates before 26-year-old Catalina Lauf entered the race.

IA-1: Ashley Hinson hopes to unseat incumbent Abby Finkenauer in a district President Trump won by 3.5 points in 2016.

IA-3: David Young hopes to recapture the seat he lost in 2018; his successor Cindy Axne only managed to secure a plurality of the vote. President Trump carried the district by 3.5 points in 2016.

KS-3: Sara Hart Weir, the former CEO of the National Down Syndrome Society, hopes to unseat incumbent Sharice Davids in a seat President Trump narrowly lost in 2016.

MI-3: Jim Lower hopes to oust Never-Trumper Justin Amash, who has left the Republican Party and plans to run for re-election as an independent. While President Trump carried this district by nearly ten points, a three-way race could enable a Democrat to prevail in the general election.

MT-AL: Matt Rosendale and Corey Stapleton hope to keep Montana’s only Congressional district in the red column now that incumbent Greg Gianforte has decided to forego running for re-election and run for governor instead. While President Trump won the state by more than 20 points in 2016, Montana has a history of supporting Democratic candidates for state and federal races despite almost always voting for the Republican presidential candidate.

NJ-5: Frank Pallotta hopes to unseat two-term incumbent Josh Gottheimer in a district President Trump carried with a plurality of the vote in 2016.

NJ-7: Tom Kean Jr. hopes to win back a seat President Trump narrowly lost in 2016. He has secured the endorsement of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.

NM-2: Yvette Herrell, who lost to Democrat Xochitl Torres Small in 2018, hopes Presidential-level turnout will help her win a district that President Trump won by more than ten points in 2016.

NV-4: Jim Marchant hopes to unseat Democratic Congressman Steven Horsford in a district Hillary Clinton carried with a plurality of the vote in 2016. While President Trump did slightly better in Nevada’s other swing district, Nevada’s 3^rd Congressional District, the Republican candidate in the 4^th District outperformed the GOP candidate in the 3^rd District in 2018.

NY-11: Nicole Malliotakis, the New York State Assemblywoman who ran for NYC mayor in 2017, could definitely give incumbent Max Rose heartburn in a district President Trump won by nearly ten points.

NY-18: Chele Farley, who unsuccessfully tried to oust Senator Kirsten Gillibrand last year, could do better in a district that Hillary Clinton narrowly lost. Republicans have two better targets in New York State.

OK-5: Stephanie Bice and Terry Nice hope to unseat first-term Democratic Congresswoman Kendra Horn, who pulled off an upset no one saw coming.

SC-1: Kathy Landing and Nancy Mace hope to win a seat that President Trump carried by double digits in 2016 by defeating incumbent Joe Cunningham, who won in an upset few saw coming.

TX-7: Wesley Hunt and Cindy Siegel hope to win a seat in a district Hillary Clinton by a very small margin in 2016.

TX-32: Genevieve Collins hopes to flip a seat President Trump lost by one percentage point in 2016 back into the red column in 2020.

VA-7: Tina Ramirez hopes to unseat incumbent Abigail Spanberger in a seat that President Trump won with a bare majority in 2016.