Top 10 Most Vulnerable Pro-Impeachment Democrats

The number of House Democrats supporting impeachment has grown exponentially since I first unveiled my encyclopedia of vulnerable pro-impeachment Democrats; specifically, a list of pro-impeachment Democrats who represent districts where Hillary Clinton received less than 50 percent of the vote in the 2016 Presidential Election. I originally organized the encyclopedia alphabetically by the last name of the representatives but I figured it might make more sense to rank them by their vulnerability. First, I want to explain the rationale behind my rankings:

1. Lauren Underwood (IL-14): Underwood narrowly defeated incumbent Republican Randy Hultgren in a district that President Trump carried with a plurality of the vote in 2016. The Republican share of the vote shrunk from 54 percent in 2012 to 48 percent in 2016 but the Democratic share of the vote barely budged at all.  Underwood has not tailored her voting record and behavior to a conservative district.  For example, Underwood actually suggested during a House hearing that “the evidence is really clear” that the deaths of migrant children were “intentional.” Underwood already has quite a few challengers, including State Senator Jim Oberweis, the Republican nominee to take on Dick Durbin in 2014 who had previously ran for this seat and lost, State Senator Sue Rezin, likely the establishment favorite, and Catalina Lauf, an attractive 26-year-old millennial who would replace the socialist Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez as the youngest member of Congress should she win the Republican nomination and general election. Of all the people on this list, Underwood looks like the easiest to defeat.
2. Chris Pappas (NH-1): Pappas won an open seat in a district carried by President Trump in 2016. Pappas billed himself as a moderate but calling for the impeachment of President Trump does not exactly tickle the fancy of so-called moderates and independent voters. As an added bonus, whoever emerges to challenge Pappas will receive assistance from President Trump; who will likely spend substantial time in the Granite State as he attempts to win its four electoral votes.
3. Tom Malinowski (NJ-7): Malinowski narrowly defeated incumbent Leonard Lance in a district that President Trump lost by a margin of one percentage point. Republicans appear to have found the candidate they see best suited to take on Malinowski: Thomas Kean Jr, son of former New Jersey Governor Tom Kean.
4. Kim Schrier (WA-8): Schrier won an open seat President Trump lost by three points. While Schrier’s opponent will likely receive assistance from the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, he or she will likely not get much help from President Trump, since the state of Washington seems like a lock for the Democrats in 2020.
5. Ann Kuster (NH-2): Kuster has served in Congress since 2012, when she defeated incumbent Republican Charles Bass. While the Democratic share of the vote declined in both of New Hampshire’s Congressional districts from 2012 to 2016, the Republican share of the vote actually increased in Kuster’s district. The Republican improvement did not enable President Trump to carry the district; he lost it by 1.5 points. The fate of Kuster’s Republican challenger will likely depend on President Trump’s performance in the district and President Trump will likely do some campaigning on his or her behalf as he crisscrosses New Hampshire working to re-elect himself and elect a Republican Senator committed to enacting the MAGA agenda.
6. Peter DeFazio (OR-4): DeFazio has served in Congress for decades; which would make him untouchable in theory. However, many other longtime incumbents have lost their seats in recent years thanks to the political realignment caused by immigration and the migration of working-class voters into the Republican party.  John Mica of Florida’s 7^th Congressional District, John Culberson of Texas’s 7^th Congressional District, Pete Sessions of Texas’s 32^nd Congressional District, and Rohrbacher lost their seats because of the former while Nick Rahall of West Virginia’s 3^rd Congressional District lost his seat because of the latter. All but one of them served in Congress for more than two decades. President Trump only lost DeFazio’s district by one-tenth of a percentage point after President Obama had carried it by nearly seven points four years earlier. Republicans appear to have recruited the perfect candidate to take on DeFazio. Alex Skarlatos, one of the men who subdued a would-be gunman on a train in France back in 2015. Skarlatos portrayed himself in a dramatization of his heroism, “The 15:17 to Paris,” directed by Clint Eastwood. At the ripe old age of 26, Skarlatos’s youth presents a refreshing contrast to the septuagenarian DeFazio in more ways than one. Skarlatos and Catalina Lauf would become the youngest members of the 117^th Congress should they both win their primaries and elections in their respective districts.
7. Harley Rouda (CA-48): Rouda defeated longtime incumbent Dana Rohrbacher in a district President Trump lost by slightly less than two points. A number of Republican candidates have lined up to take on Rouda, including James Bradley, who just narrowly missed out on a chance to take on Dianne Feinstein in last year’s California Senate race, and Michelle Park Steel, a member of the Orange County Board of Supervisors.
8. Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-2): Kirkpatrick won an open seat in a district President Trump lost by nearly five points. Kirkpatrick previously represented Arizona’s 1^st Congressional District, which President Trump carried, but ran for this district two years after her unsuccessful run for the Senate. Kirkpatrick never lost a race in the 1^st District following the 2010 redistricting but did lose a race in 2010, when the districts looked much, much different. Considering the fact that Arizona looks like it has become a swing state, President Trump will likely spend some time in the district as he seeks to lock in Arizona’s 11 electoral votes; although the Republican candidate may not want to campaign with him because this district moved away from the Republicans in 2016.
9. Katie Porter (CA-45): Porter defeated incumbent Mimi Walters in a district President Trump lost by more than five points. In spite of President Trump’s underwhelming performance in this historically Republican district, Hillary Clinton failed to crack 50 percent. Mission Viejo mayor Greg Raths and several other candidates have filed to take on Porter. 
10. Dan Kildee (MI-5): Few political observers would have expected President Trump to come as close to winning a district that President Obama had won by more than 20 points in 2012. But he did just that by only managing to lose Dan Kildee’s district by four percentage points. This time around, whoever emerges to challenge Kildee will likely have President Trump appearing with him or her on the campaign trail at least once.  Michigan will play a vital role in both the 2020 Presidential Election and the battle for the Senate. Republicans have successfully recruited John James, who performed quite well in his bid to unseat veteran Senator Debbie Stabenow last year, to run against first-term Senator Gary Peters. President Trump will spend a lot of time there but so will the Democratic nominee for President. Should both President Trump and James do well in Michigan, that could very well help carry Kildee’s opponent to victory.

I have created an updated version of my vulnerable pro-impeachment Democrat encyclopedia below. I have rearranged the list so that the most vulnerable pro-impeachment Democrat appears at the top while the least vulnerable pro-impeachment Democrat appears at the bottom.  President Trump could win all of their districts or he could lose all of them. Simply put, if Republicans manage to win all of the seats currently held by vulnerable pro-impeachment Democrats, they will most certainly retake the House majority. After all, their target list includes the districts of many Congressional Democrats who have resisted the urge to support impeachment thus far.  Remember that Republicans only need a net gain of 19 seats to retake the House majority.

I have expanded the data to include the incumbent’s margin of victory in 2018; since Still, just because an incumbent won by double digits in 2018 does not mean that they will not face the prospect of defeat in 2020. For example, Congressman Steve Russell of Oklahoma’s 5^th Congressional District won re-election by more than 20 points in 2016; only to lose in an upset no one saw coming two years later.

I also created a “vulnerability index” for each of the candidates that I used to determine the rankings. In order to create the “vulnerability index,” I added up President Trump’s margin of victory in 2016, the difference between the Republican Presidential candidate’s share of the vote in 2012 and 2016, and the incumbent’s margin of victory. In every case, I treated the incumbent’s margin in 2018 as a negative value; since the incumbency advantage will work against Republicans. In every case below, the vulnerability index has a negative value. The data about President Trump’s margin of victory and the difference in Republican vote share come from The Daily Kos.

Incumbent	District	2016 Trump Margin	Difference Between 2012 and 2016 Republican Vote Share	Incumbent Margin, 2018	Vulnerability Index
Lauren Underwood	IL-14	+3.9	-5.5	+5.0	-6.6
Chris Pappas	NH-1	+1.6	-0.4	+8.6	-7.4
Tom Malinowski	NJ-7	-1.1	-5.0	+5.0	-11.1
Kim Schrier	WA-8	-3.0	-3.7	+4.8	-11.5
Ann Kuster	NH-2	-2.4	+1.7	+13.4	-14.1
Peter DeFazio	OR-4	-0.1	+1.0	+15.1	-14.2
Harley Rouda	CA-48	-1.7	-8.5	+7.2	-17.4
Ann Kirkpatrick	AZ-2	-4.9	-5.2	+9.4	-19.5
Katie Porter	CA-45	-5.4	-10.2	+4.2	-19.8
Dan Kildee	MI-5	-4.2	+7.2	+23.6	-20.6

The dynamics in these races would obviously change if the incumbent decided to retire. In every single case, the absence of the incumbent from the ballot would definitely help Republicans’ chances of flipping the seat; especially in the districts where President Trump received a higher share of the vote than Mitt Romney did in 2012.

Just because a pro-impeachment Democrat did not end up in my vulnerable pro-impeachment Democrat encyclopedia does not mean that calling for impeachment will not have electoral consequences for them. I included Tim Ryan of Ohio’s 13^th Congressional District as an “honorable mention” in my initial encyclopedia because while the district swung dramatically towards the Republicans in 2016, it just barely fails to meet the definition of “vulnerable,” as Hillary Clinton carried it with 51 percent of the vote. Ryan definitely qualifies as a wild card and of all of the districts that Hillary Clinton carried with more than 50 percent of the vote, this one seems most likely to support President Trump in 2020.

For the most part, the impeachment enthusiasts on Capitol Hill represent deep blue districts and will therefore face no backlash for their decision to participate in the impeachment charade. I highlighted the exceptions in this article. To all of those working on the Republican Congressional Campaign Committee, the campaign ads for the vulnerable pro-impeachment Democrats write themselves. Even if impeachment does not become a reality, the fact that members of swing districts would even entertain the idea of supporting removing a duly elected President from office shows just how much they have lost touch with their constituents.

As of right now, exactly ten House Democrats who represent swingy districts have jumped on board the impeachment bandwagon. Should that number continue to grow, I will update the encyclopedia accordingly. Stay tuned.