Declaring a Code Blue in Texas

President Trump has many potential paths he can follow to reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes during his re-election bid next year. However, almost all of them require him to carry Texas; the second most populous state in the union and the most populous state that Republicans have consistently won in Presidential elections for decades. However, demographic changes may make winning Texas more difficult for Republicans; if not this time, then in the future.

Four years after Mitt Romney won Texas by a margin of more than 15 points, President Trump only carried the state by a margin of nine points. Far-left Democrat Beto O’Rourke almost won the Senate race last year, even as conservative Republican governor Greg Abbott won re-election by double digits. Democrats flipped two Hillary Clinton-won seats in the House last year and have a strong chance of flipping the third one now that Republican Congressman Will Hurd has announced his intention to forego re-election.

As I have explained before, all of the evidence shows that when the foreign-born share of the population goes up, the Republican share of the vote goes down. Currently, foreign-born residents make up one-sixth of Texas’s population. Only in five states do the foreign-born make up a larger share of the population.

I recently came across a tweet from Ryan Girdusky, who works for One America News Network. The tweet warned that “people should be paying attention to the possibility that Dems could take control of the Texas State House,” citing a large number of open seats in the Lone Star State’s lower chamber. Currently, Republicans hold 83 seats in the Texas House of Representatives; while Democrats hold 66.  If Democrats win all eight of the races mentioned by Girdusky, they would still hold a majority of seats in the House. Still, the the thought of Texas turning blue should scare every American who voted for President Trump in 2016.

One person who responded to Girdusky’s tweet seemed perfectly content with the idea of Texas going blue; presenting his own electoral map showing Republicans winning 315 electoral votes without Texas, an idea that most definitely meets the definition of “impossible.” While a viable path or two probably exists that could help Republicans win the White House without Texas this time, it definitely does not look like this:  



Republicans have no chance at winning Oregon or Washington anytime soon.  That should not come as a surprise since voters there seem enthusiastic about abortion, sanctuary laws, and marijuana.  Taking those two states out of the picture would bring the Republicans’ vote total down to 296 in a hypothetical scenario of Texas going blue and every other swing state going red. If Texas goes blue, that probably means Arizona and New Mexico would go blue too. After all, conservatism has a much stronger influence on Texas; some of the counties in the panhandle saw President Trump win with more than 90 percent of the vote. Taking Arizona and New Mexico out of the Republicans’ column would leave them with 280 electoral votes. The map also assumes that Republicans will win all four of Maine’s electoral votes. While I definitely think that President Trump could win 3 of the state’s 4 electoral votes, it looks unlikely that he will win the electoral vote for Maine’s 1st Congressional District; which Hillary Clinton carried dy double digits in 2016. So, assuming that President Trump wins every other state that he won in 2016 as well as Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire, he could win a second term without winning Texas.

But future Republican presidential candidates may have a harder time replicating such a path. Texas’s rapid population growth means that it will almost certainly gain representation in both Congress and the Electoral College following the 2020 census. Florida, which actually swung in President Trump’s direction in 2016, will also see its share of seats in Congress go up.  The same applies to Arizona and Colorado, two other states that Democrats have gotten friendlier to Democrats over time, as well as the solidly blue state of Oregon. The only bright spot for Republicans comes in Montana; which will likely have two representatives in Congress, not one, following the next round of redistricting. Although it looks like Idaho might miss out on getting an extra seat in Congress and another vote in the Electoral College, recent population estimates from the 2018 American Community Survey show a population explosion in Idaho; which may enable more the ruby red state to enjoy more political influence down the line, if not in time for the 2020 census.

At the same time, many of the states critical to President Trump’s victory, including Alabama, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia, will likely lose representation in the Electoral College and Congress; according to Election Data Services. The list of states likely to lose representation in the Electoral College also includes a few blue states; Illinois, New York, and Rhode Island. At this point, it looks possible that either California or Minnesota may also lose an electoral vote.  

The table below outlines the paths that a Republican presidential candidate would have to take in order to win the election without Texas next year and following the 2020 census. This time around, Democrats can count on 183 electoral votes in the “Solid D” states and districts; which voted for Hillary Clinton by ten points or more in 2016. They can also probably count on the 14 electoral votes in the “D Favored” states, where Democrats enjoyed a smaller margin of victory in 2016 but the long-term trends favor Democrats. The “Trending D” states became more Democratic in 2016 but Republicans can probably still win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes this time around.  Virginia looks like a lost cause; its 13 electoral votes will likely go to the Democrats. In order to win re-election without Texas and Arizona, President Trump would have to win all of the “wild cards,” including Nevada, the states that swung Republican in 2016 even if they did not end up voting for President Trump, as well as Georgia and North Carolina, two states that voted Republican in 2016 despite the fact that Democrats could end up winning regularly in the near future.  While the electoral math will shift a little bit following the 2020 census, Republicans will still have to win every state not outlined in blue  in order to win the presidency.



Category
Pre-2020 Electoral Votes
Post-2020 Electoral Votes (projected)
Category Subtotal Pre-2020
Category Subtotal Post-2020
Solid D
CA (55)
CT (7)
DE (3)
DC (3)
HI (4)
IL (20)
ME-1 (1)
MD (10)
MA (11)
NJ (14)
NY (29)
OR (7)
RI (4)
VT (3)
WA (12)
CA (54-55)
CT (7)
DE (3)
DC (3)
HI (4)
IL (19)
ME-1 (1)
MD (10)
MA (11)
NJ (14)
NY (27)
OR (8)
RI (3)
VT (3)
WA (12)
183
179-180
D Favored
CO (9)
NM (5)
CO (10)
NM (5)
14
15
Trending D
AZ (11)
VA (13)
AZ (12)
VA (13)
24
25
Wild Cards
FL (29)
NE-2 (1)
NH (4)
NV (6)
FL (31)
NE-2 (1)
NH (4)
NV (6)
40
42
Texas
TX (38)
TX (41)
38
41
R Favored…for now
GA (16)
NC (15)
GA (16)
NC (16)
31
32
Trending R
IA (6)
ME (2)
ME-2 (1)
MI (16)
MN (10)
OH (18)
PA (20)
WI (10)
IA (6)
ME (2)
ME-2 (1)
MI (15)
MN (9-10)
OH (17)
PA (19)
WI (10)
83
79-80
Solid R
AL (9)
AK (3)
AR (6)
ID (4)
IN (11)
KS (6)
KY (8)
LA (8)
MS (6)
MO (10)
MT (3)
NE (4)
ND (3)
OK (7)
SC (9)
SD (3)
TN (11)
UT (6)
WV (5)
WY (3)
AL (8)
AK (3)
AR (6)
ID (4)
IN (11)
KS (6)
KY (8)
LA (8)
MS (6)
MO (10)
MT (4)
NE (4)
ND (3)
OK (7)
SC (9)
SD (3)
TN (11)
UT (6)
WV (4)
WY (3)
125
124
Total


538
538


While Texas’s political future will have implications for the whole country, it will have specific implications for the tens of millions of people currently living in Texas; especially those who moved there for its booming economy and low taxes. If both the legislative and executive branches of government go blue and Texas, it will not take long for the same leftist ideas that destroyed California, Illinois, and New Jersey to take root in the Lone Star State. As a report on “Full Measure With Sharyl Attkisson” documented, an oil boom in West Texas has helped America enter a golden age of energy production. In addition to allowing America to break free of its dependence on dictatorships that hate our guts, the oil boom has enabled many Americans without a college degree to obtain high-paying jobs with average salaries of $130,000. The population explosion accompanying the oil boom has increased salaries for residents of West Texas across the board. The Wall Street Journal highlighted a barber in Pecos, Texas who made $180,000 a year. A rising tide really does lift all boats.

All of the economic expansion and oil production synonymous with 2019 will come to a screeching halt the second the Democrats get their hands on the levers of power in Texas.  After all, Democrats see drilling and fracking as violations of the religion of environmentalism; which they want to implement as the state religion. Should a Democrat emerge victorious in the 2020 Presidential Election, they will likely seek to implement a nationwide ban on drilling and fracking; since they have little to no respect for the concept of federalism, except when it comes to the legalization of marijuana and the implementation of sanctuary cities designed to flout federal law.

Like political realignments in other states, Texas’s move to the left will not happen overnight. It took until 2014 for both chambers of the West Virginia legislature to turn red despite the fact that the state voted Republican in the four previous presidential elections. As recently as 2010, Arkansas had two Democratic Senators; despite the fact that it had voted for Republican presidential candidates by increasingly large margins beginning in 2000.  Similarly, Republicans still control both chambers of the Virginia legislature despite the fact that the state has not voted for a Republican President since 2004. 

 As Ronald Reagan once said, “If we lose freedom here, there is no place to escape to.  This is the last stand on earth.” Liberals know that, which explains why they want to accelerate the process of turning Texas blue by decriminalizing illegal border crossings. Julian Castro, a proponent of throwing the borders wide open, predicted that “By 2024 Democrats can win Texas, Arizona, and Florida. A big blue wall of 78 electoral votes.” As my table demonstrates, that “big blue wall” will actually amount to more like 84 electoral votes by the time 2024 rolls around. By declaring a “code blue” now, I hope Republicans will take into account all of the data I have assembled and take a proactive approach to keeping Texas in the red column. The future of the country and the party depends on them doing just that.

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