The Battle for the Soul of Virginia

Two weeks ago, I took a trip to the Swamp for the first time since my internship ended 18 months ago to attend The National Journalism Center’s Alumni Networking Happy Hour. I like it down there, particularly because of the people; a great group of conservatives live there.   It looks like my decision to make the trip has already paid off. In addition to making new friends, I became aware of a great job opportunity in the state of Virginia, where I lived for three months during my internship, that I likely would not have found out about otherwise.

Should I end up returning to the Swamp, which I hope happens sooner than later, I would elect to live in Virginia.  After all, living in Washington, D.C. costs a lot of money.  In addition, practically speaking, it makes the most sense for me to live in Virginia if I want my vote in the Presidential election (as well as statewide elections) to make the most difference. If I chose to live in the District of Columbia, my vote would mean absolutely nothing at all; since the city gave more than 90 percent of the vote to Hillary Clinton in 2016. While Maryland, the other principal state in the Washington Metro Area, did not give Hillary that much of a lopsided margin, it still votes so overwhelmingly Democratic that my vote would ultimately not count. Virginia, on the other hand, remains competitive in Presidential elections; although the Democrats seem to have developed a permanent advantage thanks to immigration.

Much like the battle for the soul of America that will take place at around this time next year, a battle for the soul of Virginia will take place this year. While the Democrats could come up short in all three of the gubernatorial elections taking place this year in the Deep South, they have reasons for optimism in the battle to take complete control over the Virginia government.

Republicans had absolutely disastrous years in Virginia in 2017 and 2018.  In 2017, Republican gubernatorial nominee Ed Gillespie lost the election by an even wider margin than President Trump had lost the year before.  Also, the Republicans’ two-thirds supermajority in the House of Delegates evaporated; with the GOP barely hanging on to the majority. In 2018, the Republican Senate candidate Corey Stewart lost to incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine by a double-digit margin.  Stewart’s loss at the top of the ticket likely contributed to the loss of three incumbent Republicans in Congressional races; giving Democrats a 7-4 edge in the Old Dominion’s Congressional delegation. 

While Democrats struck gold in 2017 and 2018, they appeared to hit a few speed bumps at the beginning of 2019.  For starters, a yearbook picture from Virginia’s Democratic Governor Ralph Northam’s medical school days surfaced, showing a picture of a man dressed in blackface and another in Ku Klux Klan attire.  Northam faced calls to resign but still remains in power to this today because of problems surrounding the other two top Democrats in the state.  At first, dumping Northam seemed like a logical get out of jail free card for Virginia Democrats because Northam’s departure would mean that African-American Democrat Justin Fairfax would ascend to the top job. Had Fairfax become Governor, he would have had a leg up in 2021, when he would have the ability to run for a full term as Governor.  However, Fairfax has a few problems of his own; specifically, accusations of sexual assault and rape.  If both Northam and Fairfax ended up resigning, Attorney General Mark Herring, who planned on running for Governor in 2021 anyway, would become the head of Virginia’s Executive Branch.  As it turns out, Herring also liked to dress up in blackface as a youngster. Should all three Democrats resign because of their scandals, Republican House Speaker Kirk Cox would become Governor. Since the Democrats and the friends in their media do not want this to happen, the scandals appear to have magically disappeared. I predicted that Ralph Northam would become the new Dan Malloy, in other words, the most unpopular governor in the country but my prediction did not bear out. According to Morning Consult, Northam only has a 42 percent approval rating but only 38 percent of Virginians disapprove of his performance.

Just next week, Virginians will head to the polls to determine whether or not they want Democrats to have a “trifecta,” in other words, control over both the legislative and executive branches.  Currently, Republicans hold narrow majorities in both chambers of the Virginia legislature.  If Republicans want to hold onto one or both chambers, they cannot afford to lose a single seat in either chamber.  The narrow Republican majority proved essential in preventing incredible damage to the soul of Virginia; which came in the form of legislation that has passed in other states the second the voters made the decision to give Democrats a “trifecta.”  Not long after Democrats gained a “trifecta” in New York State, Governor Andrew Cuomo signed the Reproductive Healthcare Act into law, which relaxed the state’s abortion laws to the point of erasing a part of the state’s penal code that declared it a felony to “engage in conduct which causes the death of a person or an unborn child with which a female has been pregnant for more than 24 weeks.” 

At around the same time, Virginia State Delegate Kathy Tran introduced the “Repeal Act,” which would have loosened Virginia’s abortion laws to essentially allow partial birth abortion and give doctors the option to withhold care from infants who survived botched abortions.  When pressed by the House Majority Leader if her bill would have allowed women who have “dilated” to have abortions, Tran answered in the affirmative. The Republican majority in the House of Delegates served as the only firewall preventing this barbaric piece of legislation from becoming law; with all Republicans on the House Committee for Courts of Justice voting to table it and all the Democrats voting the other way. If the Democrats take complete control of Virginia’s government; the passage of the “Repeal Act” seems almost inevitable.  Should the “Repeal Act” become law, pro-life Americans in both political parties will suffer a huge defeat in the battle for the soul of Virginia.

Republicans definitely have an uphill battle if they want to stop that from happening.  Following the 2017 election, Republicans represented every House district that President Trump carried while Democrats represented every House district that Hillary Clinton carried. In other words, Republicans could have simply held onto the majority in the House of Delegates by defending.  Liberals’ friends in the judicial branch made Republicans’ jobs a lot harder by implementing a new set of House districts more favorable to Democrats.

Rather than list detailed information about every single competitive Congressional districts, I have created two summary tables below to help illustrate the situation clearer; one for the Senate and one for the House of Delegates.  Hillary Clinton carried seats labelled “Safe D” with at least 55 percent of the vote, seats labelled “Likely D” gave Hillary Clinton between 52.5 and 55 percent of the vote in 2016, seats listed under “Leans D” gave Hillary between 50 and 52.5 percent of the vote, “tossup” seats gave neither party 50 percent of the vote, seats I labelled “Leans R” gave President Trump between 50 and 52.5 percent of the vote, seats characterized as “Likely R” gave President Trump between 52.5 and 55 percent of the vote, and the seats categorized as “Safe R” gave President Trump 55 percent of the vote or more. I highlighted seats currently held by Republicans in red, bolded the seats that redistricting made bluer, and underlined the seats that redistricting made redder.

Table 1: Virginia Senate Races

Safe D 16	Likely D 3	Leans D 2	Tossup 3	Leans R 1	Likely R 3	Safe R 12
1, 2, 5, 9, 16, 18, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 39	6, 10, 25	13, 21	7, 12, 16	8	11, 22, 28	3, 4, 14, 15, 19, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27, 38, 40

Table 2: Virginia House of Delegates Races

Safe D 38	Likely D 5	Leans D 7	Tossup 10	Leans R 2	Likely R 7	Safe R 31
2, 11, 32, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 39, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 52, 53, 57, 63, 67, 69, 70, 71, 74, 76, 77, 79, 80, 86, 87, 89, 90, 92, 94, 95	13, 31, 40, 50, 75	10, 51, 66, 68, 72, 73, 93	12, 21, 27, 28, 62, 83, 84, 85, 91, 100	26, 81	14, 33, 54, 58, 82, 88, 96	1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 29, 30, 55, 56, 59, 60, 61, 64, 65, 78, 97, 98, 99

As Table 1 demonstrates, Democrats can take control of the Senate simply by winning the two Senate seats that Hillary Clinton carried with a majority of the vote in 2016.  As for the House of Delegates, the Democrats can take control simply by winning the four seats that Hillary Clinton carried with a majority of the vote in 2016.  However, Republicans also have some opportunities to play offense in the House of Delegates races; specifically in districts 12, 21, and 85, where Hillary Clinton only won a plurality of the vote in 2016.  Winning those three seats alone will not enable Republicans to hold onto a majority if the Democrats win the four seats that Hillary carried with a majority of the vote. 

In addition to the legislative elections that will take place, a series of local elections will take place that will have a profound impact on the quality of life of Virginia counties located in the vicinity of the Swamp. Far-left billionaire George Soros has funded candidates for the position of Commonwealth’s Attorney in two of the state’s largest counties that have little prosecutorial experience but have promised to embrace the “politically correct” approach to law enforcement focused on “systemic discrimination” should they end up winning the election. Both of Soros’s puppets defeated incumbent Democrats in primary elections.  Appearing on “The Ingraham Angle” last week, Jonathan Fahey, the non-Soros candidate, described Fairfax County, Virginia, as “the safest large county in America.” That will change if Soros’s chosen candidate for Fairfax County Commonwealth’s Attorney wins the election. 

Even if I don’t end up living in Fairfax County, where I lived for three months, I know a lot of people who do live there and it would break my heart to see the crime rate explode there because of a Commonwealth’s Attorney more committed to advancing the social justice agenda than keeping the citizens safe.  In just a week, perhaps the most important election ever in determining the future of the soul of Virginia will take place. Voters’ decisions could profoundly impact state and local policies when it comes to the issues of life, law enforcement, and even taxes. I have already seen what unfettered liberalism has done to the two states that I have already called home (New York and Rhode Island) and I would hate to see the same thing happen to the state that has become my home away from home and could very well become my home in the near future.