Three Californias: A Bad Idea

Four years ago, billionaire Tim Draper first floated the idea of splitting California, the most populous state in the union, and the third largest in terms of area, into six separate states.  He failed to get enough signatures for his proposal in time to secure a place on the ballot for the 2014 election.

 

The Six States would have included West California, consisting of Los Angeles, Santa Barbara and vicinity; Jefferson, consisting of counties in Northern California that have long fantasized about seceding from the rest of the state; North California, consisting of “Wine Country” and Sacramento; Central California, consisting of Bakersfield, Fresno and vicinity; South California, consisting of the coastal counties south of Los Angeles and the counties known as the “inland empire,” and Silicon Valley, consisting of the counties in the San Francisco Bay Area populated by hippies, tech heads, and a rapidly increasing population of homeless people who like to use the streets as latrines.

 

Draper came up with this idea following the 2012 election.  Had “Six Californias” been in place for the 2012 Presidential Election, Republican candidate Mitt Romney would have won Central California and Jefferson narrowly while President Obama would have won Silicon Valley, West California, and North California by double digit margins.  President Obama would have won South California by 2.4 percentage points, a smaller margin than he won Ohio.

 

Splitting up California would not have helped Romney win the electoral college either.  The number of electoral votes needed to capture the Presidency would have increased to 280 while Romney would have only picked up 19 electoral votes, coming up far short of the 280 electoral vote threshold.  President Obama would have only lost two electoral votes after partitioning the Golden State.   

 

In 2016, Crooked Hillary outperformed President Obama in three of the “Six Californias;” with President Trump underperforming Romney in all of them.  This should not come as a surprise, as California jumped from President Obama’s best seventh best state in 2012 to Hillary’s third best state in 2016.  For more information, check out Table 1.

 

Table 1: Six Californias Presidential Election Results, 2016

 

County	Clinton	Trump	Total
Alameda	514,842	95,922	654,266
Contra Costa	319,287	115,956	466,175
Monterey	89,088	34,895	133,408
San Benito	12,521	7,841	21,924
San Francisco	345,084	37,688	405,792
San Mateo	237,882	57,929	314,384
Santa Clara	511,684	144,826	703,709
Santa Cruz	95,249	22,438	128,821
Silicon Valley Total	2,125,637	517,495	2,828,479
	75.15%	18.3%
Alpine	334	217	602
Calaveras	7,944	13,511	23,531
Fresno	141,341	124,049	287,062
Inyo	3,155	4,248	8,179
Kern	98,689	129,584	244,163
Kings	13,617	18,093	34,310
Madera	17,029	23,357	43,507
Mariposa	3,122	5,185	8,877
Merced	37,317	28,725	70,789
Mono	2,773	2,111	5,281
San Joaquin	121,124	88,936	227,002
Stanislaus	81,647	78,494	174,406
Tulare	47,585	58,299	114,102
Tuolumne	9,123	14,551	25,893
Central California Total	584,800	589,360	1,267,704
	46.13%	46.49%
Los Angeles	2,464,364	769,743	3,434,308
Santa Barbara	107,142	56,365	178,878
San Luis Obispo	67,107	56,164	137,202
Ventura	194,402	132,323	356,107
West California Total	2,833,015	1,014,595	4,097,829
	68.99%	24.71%
Imperial	32,667	12,704	48,091
Orange	609,961	507,148	1,197,521
Riverside	373,695	333,243	751,391
San Bernardino	340,833	271,240	653,983
San Diego	735,476	477,766	1,306,400
South California Total	2,092,632	1,602,101	3,957,386
	52.88%	40.48%
Amador	6,004	10,485	17,963
El Dorado	36,404	49,247	95,149
Marin	108,707	21,771	140,683
Napa	39,199	17,411	61,372
Nevada	26,053	23,365	54,935
Placer	73,509	95,138	186,024
Sacramento	326,023	189,789	562,285
Sierra	601	1,048	1,858
Solano	102,360	51,920	168,150
Sonoma	160,435	51,408	233,303
Sutter	13,076	18,176	33,824
Yolo	54,752	20,739	82,090
Yuba	7,910	13,170	22,998
North California Total	955,033	563,667	1,660,634
	57.51%	33.94%
Butte	41,567	45,144	97,002
Colusa	2,661	3,551	6,697
Del Norte	3,485	5,134	9,558
Glenn	3,065	5,788	9,470
Humboldt	33,200	18,373	60,014
Lake	11,500	10,603	24,684
Lassen	2,224	7,574	10,699
Mendocino	22,079	10,888	37,915
Modoc	877	2,696	3,843
Plumas	3,459	5,420	9,850
Shasta	22,301	51,778	81,024
Siskiyou	7,234	11,341	20,493
Tehama	6,809	15,494	23,908
Trinity	2,214	2,812	5,784
Jefferson Total	162,675	196,596	400,941
	40.57%	49.03%

Source: Dave Leip’s Election Atlas  

 

Now, Draper has come forward with a new initiative, Three Californias.  This initiative would almost certainly send four new Democratic Senators to Washington, not exactly helpful in a year where Republicans hope to add to their Senate majority, which stands at a slim 51-49.  Should “Three Californias” become a reality, the number of Senators would rise to 104, as the Constitution requires that all states receive two Senators regardless of population.  Unlike “Six Californias,” “Three Californias” has already exceeded the minimum number of signatures required to secure a place on the ballot this November.    

 

Even the most conservative, more accurately described as least Democratic, state in the proposal, Southern California, would have supported Hillary Clinton by a margin of about 500,000 votes with more than 4.5 million votes cast.  In other words, the state would be more Democratic than Virginia or New Mexico.  On the other hand, voter turnout might increase if the hypothetical state of Southern California were to become a reality, as many conservative Californians have probably made the calculation that their vote does not count.  Southern California may have more conservatives than electoral results would indicate, as evidenced by the fact that many of its jurisdictions have joined the Trump Administration’s lawsuit against SB 54, the sanctuary state bill.

 

Under “Three Californias,” the state of Northern California would combine most parts of the states of Jefferson, North California, and Silicon Valley as introduced under the “Six Californias” proposal.  Based on the numbers, the overwhelmingly Democratic and heavily populated Silicon Valley would surely make the votes of conservatives in Northern California practically useless.  Every single conservative who lives in Northern California should vote against this proposal, as they would still have to live under the tyranny of the overlords in Sacramento who get triggered by the Bible.   

 

The State of “California” would consist of a narrow strip of coastline almost identical to the proposed state of “West California” in the “Six Californias” proposal, adding in one county from Silicon Valley and one county from North California.  

 

Even if voters decided to approve “Three Californias,” the process does not end there.  The United States Congress as well as the California State Legislature will have the final say as to whether to approve the partition of California, as outlined by Article IV, Section 3 of the Constitution.  More than half a century has passed since the admission of the two newest states, Alaska and Hawaii, into the Union and more than a century and a half has passed since a new state has formed by seceding from an existing state.     

   

While the Democrats might like to continue to see California as one big, happy socialist family, it would actually serve their interests to have “Three Californias,” as the proposal would probably yield them four new Senators.  While it’s mostly those on the right that have advocated for splitting up California, the left has also flirted with the idea in the past, but in a different way. Soon after the election of President Trump, activists on the left started collecting signatures for a ballot proposal that would ask Californians if they wanted to secede from the union altogether and form their own country.  The proposal became known as either “Cal-Exit” or “Yes California.” Many Democrats, especially those who live in other states, abhorred this idea because California forms the foundation of the National Democratic Party.  Without California, President Trump would have won the popular vote and the Democrats would lose 55 safe electoral votes in addition to more than three dozen seats in the House of Representatives.  For now, the “Yes California” movement appears to have stalled as “Three Californias” remains a viable, yet undesirable proposition.  Table 2 should help to illustrate why:

Table 2: Three Californias Presidential Election Results, 2016

County	Clinton	Trump	Total
Fresno	141,341	124,049	287,062
Imperial	32,667	12,704	48,091
Inyo	3,155	4,248	8,179
Kern	98,689	129,584	244,163
Kings	13,617	18,093	34,310
Madera	17,029	23,357	43,507
Mono	2,773	2,111	5,281
Orange	609,961	507,148	1,197,521
Riverside	373,695	333,243	751,391
San Bernardino	340,833	271,240	653,983
San Diego	735,476	477,766	1,306,400
Tulare	47,585	58,299	114,102
Southern California Total	2,416,821	1,961,842	4,693,990
	51.49%	41.80%
Los Angeles	2,464,364	769,743	3,434,308
Monterey	89,088	34,895	133,408
San Benito	12,521	7,841	22,122
San Luis Obispo	67,107	56,164	137,202
Santa Barbara	107,142	56,365	178,878
Ventura	194,402	132,323	356,107
California Total	2,934,624	1,057,331	4,262,025
	68.85%	24.81%
Alameda	514,842	95,922	659,543
Alpine	334	217	602
Amador	6,004	10,485	17,963
Butte	41,567	45,144	97,002
Calaveras	7,944	13,511	23,531
Colusa	2,661	3,551	6,697
Contra Costa	319,287	115,956	473,014
Del Norte	3,485	5,134	9,558
El Dorado	36,404	49,247	95,149
Glenn	3,065	5,788	9,470
Humboldt	33,200	18,373	60,014
Lake	11,500	10,603	24,684
Lassen	2,224	7,574	10,699
Marin	108,707	21,771	140,683
Mariposa	3,122	5,185	8,877
Mendocino	22,079	10,888	37,915
Merced	37,317	28,725	70,789
Modoc	877	2,696	3,843
Napa	39,199	17,411	61,372
Nevada	26,053	23,365	54,935
Placer	73,509	95,138	186,024
Plumas	3,459	5,420	9,850
Sacramento	326,023	189,789	562,285
San Francisco	345,084	37,688	408,541
San Joaquin	121,124	88,936	227,002
San Mateo	237,882	57,929	314,384
Santa Clara	511,684	144,826	703,709
Santa Cruz	95,249	22,438	130,012
Shasta	22,301	51,778	81,024
Sierra	601	1,048	1,858
Siskiyou	7,234	11,341	20,493
Solano	102,360	51,920	168,150
Sonoma	160,435	51,408	233,303
Stanislaus	81,647	78,494	174,406
Sutter	13,076	18,176	33,824
Tehama	6,809	15,494	23,908
Trinity	2,214	2,812	5,784
Tuolumne	9,123	14,551	25,893
Yolo	54,752	20,739	82,090
Yuba	7,910	13,170	22,998
Northern California Total	3,402,347	1,464,641	5,281,878
	64.42%	27.73%

Source: Dave Leip’s Election Atlas

 

While Draper correctly acknowledged that California has become “ungovernable,” he has come up with the wrong solution.  “Three Californias” would mean more Democratic Senators, which would mean less conservative judges and less Making America Great Again.  Vote no on “Three Californias!”