Top 10 Most Likely Democratic House Pickups

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, most pundits predict that the Democrats will retake control of the House of Representatives. CNN predicts that the Democrats will pick up 32 seats, eight more than the bare minority needed to retake control of the House of Representatives; assuming that Republicans flip at least one of the districts included on my list of the Top 10 Most Likely Republican House Pickups.  Five Thirty Eight predicts that Democrats have a 6 in 7 chance of retaking control of the House.  Offering a slightly less optimistic vision for the Democrats, Dave Wassserman of The Cook Political Report predicted that Democrats have a 70 to 75 percent chance of taking the House. If they want to have any chance whatsoever of taking the House, the Democrats will have to sweep the following ten races.  As of right now, they look almost certain to flip at least three seats from red to blue. Republicans probably could manage an upset in at least one of them, although it would take a miracle:

1.      Pennsylvania 5: This seat, formerly known as Pennsylvania’s 7^th Congressional District, became dramatically more Democratic as a result of court-ordered redistricting.  President Trump only narrowly lost the old 7^th District, while Hillary Clinton carried the new 5^th District with more than 60 percent of the vote.  The sitting Congressman, Pat Meehan, announced his retirement before the redistricting as a result of the #MeToo era. All of the pundits have rated this seat “Safe” or “Likely” Democratic and neither candidate has bothered to conduct polls here, meaning that they probably assume the Democrats have it in the bag. If Republican Pearl Kim wants to serve in Congress at all, she will have to rely on the special election to fill out the remainder of Meehan’s term, which will occur on the same day as the general election, under the old lines. 

2.      Pennsylvania 6: Although this seat did not end up changing numbers like all of the other districts in Pennsylvania did following the court-ordered redistricting, the district did get more Democratic; going from a district Hillary Clinton carried with a mere plurality to a district Hillary Clinton carried with 52 percent of the vote. Incumbent Republican Ryan Costello probably could have ran and won in the old 6^th District.  He initially decided to run in the new 6^th District before withdrawing five days after the filing deadline.  With the seat open, the Democrats look like overwhelming favorites to capture the seat.

3.      New Jersey 2: While President Trump carried this district with slightly more than 50 percent of the vote, the incumbent Congressman Frank LoBiondo’s decision to retire has given Republicans a massive headache.  The Democrats found their ideal candidate, State Senator Jeff Van Drew while Republicans do not seem to like their candidate, Seth Grossman, very much. In a poll released earlier this year, Van Drew led Grossman by 23 points. A poll conducted this week shows Van Drew’s lead has narrowed to 17 points but it seems unlikely that the gap will narrow enough between now and Election Day for Grossman to pull off an upset.  In both polls, conducted by Stockton University, Van Drew has the support of 55 percent of the electorate, so even if every single undecided voter supported Grossman, he still would not have enough support to win the election.

4.      Pennsylvania 17: Formerly known as the 12^th District, the race for the newly drawn 17^th District pits incumbent Republican Keith Rothfus against Democrat Conor Lamb, who won a special election for the old Pennsylvania 18.  The new congressional map drew Lamb’s home into Rothfus’s district, meaning that the two incumbents will face off against each other. Democrats would have had no chance to win Pennsylvania’s 12^th District under the old map but the new 17^th District, President Trump only won by a very small margin. All of the polls conducted so far show Lamb beating Rothfus by double digit margins.

5.      Arizona 2: When Republican Congresswoman Martha McSally decided to run for the Senate rather than run for re-election, this district became a prime pickup opportunity for Democrats.  Democrats held the district as recently as 2014, when McSally first defeated Democratic Congressman Ron Barber.  Former Congresswoman Ann Kirkpatrick, who used to represent the 1^st District, won the Democratic nomination while Leah Marquez Peterson won the Republican nomination.  The district, located on the Arizona-Mexico border, narrowly voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 after supporting Mitt Romney in 2012.  Both of the polls of the race conducted so far show Kirkpatrick leading Marquez Peterson; one shows Kirkpatrick beating Marquez Peterson by double digits. 

6.      Pennsylvania 7: Once again, the Democrats find themselves the beneficiaries of the new Pennsylvania congressional map.  Pennsylvania’s 7^th Congressional District contains much of the territory of the old 15^th Congressional District, represented by Never-Trumper Charlie Dent, who left his seat vacant to become a CNN Contributor. President Trump narrowly carried the 15^th District so under the old map, Republicans would have started off as the favorites to hold the seat.  Thanks to redistricting, the district became one that voted for Hillary Clinton.  All of the polls have shown Democratic candidate Susan Wild leading Republican Marty Nothstein, some by small margins, and others by large margins.  A special election will take place concurrently with the general election to serve the remainder of Dent’s term.  Just like in Meehan’s district, the special election will take place under the old lines, first drawn in 2010, meaning that Nothstein, who looks likely to lose his bid for a two-year term, will get to at least serve in Congress for a couple of weeks.  

7.      Virginia 10: Hillary Clinton narrowly carried this district, which includes some rural areas of Northern Virginia, in addition to all of Loudoun County, part of the DC Metropolitan Area that has seen an exponential growth in population, thanks to immigration, and an accompanying tilt to the left politically.  Republican Barbara Comstock trails her Democratic challenger, Jennifer Wexton, in all but one poll taken so far.  Republicans did absolutely terrible in Virginia last year; the Democrats nearly took control of the House of Delegates and all statewide Republican candidates ended up losing for the second time in a row.  Prior to Election Day 2017, Republicans had a two-thirds majority in the House of Delegates.  Now, they have a bare majority.

8.      Minnesota 3: Republicans did very will in Minnesota in 2016; only losing there by under two percentage points.  The Republicans have two of their best pickup opportunities in Minnesota in largely rural and working class districts while the Democrats have their eye on two districts located in the densely populated suburbs of the Twin Cities.  President Trump lost Minnesota’s 3^rd Congressional District to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and every poll taken so far shows Republican Congressman Erik Paulsen trailing his Democratic challenger Dean Phillips; making him perhaps the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent in the country, alongside Barbara Comstock. 

9.      California 49: Darrell Issa has spent nearly two decades in Congress and nearly no one thought he would have any trouble facing re-election in 2016.  He only narrowly won re-election as Hillary Clinton carried his district.  Issa opted not to run for re-election.  Republicans failed to shut out the Democrats in the top-two primary and the contest ended up as a horserace between Democrat Mike Levin and Republican Diane Harkey.  All but one poll has shown Levin beating Harkey.  The most recent poll shows Harkey losing to Levin by double digits.

10.  New Jersey 11: President Trump narrowly carried this district in 2016, currently represented by Republican Rodney Frelinghuysen.  Had Frelinghuysen opted to run for re-election, Republicans probably would not have to worry as much about losing this seat.  However, Frelinghuysen decided to retire; leaving the seat open.  Democrat Mikie Sherill has lead Republican Jay Webber in every poll taken so far; although in most of the polls, she only leads by a small margin.

 

Missing: Florida’s 27^th Congressional District and Washington’s 8^th Congressional District. At the beginning of the cycle, open seats such as Florida’s 27^th Congressional District, which Hillary carried by 20 points, and Washington’s 8^th Congressional District, which Hillary narrowly carried, probably would have seemed like the best targets. Historically, open seats represented by a member of the President’s party carried by the opposition party in the previous Presidential election tend to flip.  However, Republicans appear well-positioned in both seats. While a New York Times poll finds Democrat Donna Shalala leading Republican Maria Elvira Salazar by seven points, an internal poll conducted on behalf of Salazar show her beating Shalala by a wider margin of nine points.  The younger Salazar, a well-known figure from Spanish language television, appears to fit her district better than the septuagenarian Shalala who does not even speak Spanish in the heavily Hispanic district. Only one of the polls taken in Washington shows Democrat Kim Schrier leading Republican Dino Rossi. Another poll shows Rossi beating Schrier by ten points. Rossi has competed in statewide races three times.  He nearly became Governor of the state in 2004 but thanks to a recount where conservatives allege that “monkey business” took place, Democrat Christine Gregoire ended up winning the election. Six years later, Rossi went up against Senator Patty Murray, once again falling short. 

Republicans could wind up losing all of these seats and still maintaining control of the House of Representatives.  Considering the fact that only three of the top ten most likely Democratic House pickups have incumbents running and four of the seats only made their way onto the list thanks to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court; Democrats can thank a perfect storm of a massive number of retirements and mid-decade redistricting if they end up retaking the House.  

 

 

In addition to winning all of the seats listed above, the Democrats would probably have to win at least fifteen more seats for the nightmare of Speaker Nancy Pelosi to become a reality; despite the fact that they would only need two more to officially take control of the House of Representatives. Republicans will probably pick up Pennsylvania’s 14^th Congressional District, essentially an open seat, and Minnesota’s 8^th Congressional District, and perhaps against all odds, Oregon’s 5^th Congressional District.  At least ten of the fifteen seats the Democrats would need to flip to regain control of the House look neck-and-neck at this point.  I will discuss these seats in detail in the next installment of my pre-election series, which will focus on the “Top 10 Closest Congressional Races.”