2019 Elections: A First Look

While everyone in America seems very excited about the 2020 Presidential Election, including the handful of Democrats who have already announced their plans to run, many elections will take place in 2019.  Three gubernatorial races, a handful of state legislative races, and at least three special Congressional elections will take place.

A little more than a month into the 116^th Congress, two vacancies have popped up in the United States House of Representatives.  Apparently not wanting to work in a Pelosi-controlled House, Representative Tom Marino, who represented a deep-red district that voted for President Trump by a margin of 40 points, resigned to take a job in the private sector.  Republican Congressman Walter Jones, who represented North Carolina’s 3^rd Congressional District, had planned on retiring at the end of his term.  Jones, who ran unopposed for re-election in 2018, died last month.  President Trump carried his district with 60 percent of the vote in 2016.  These vacancies come in addition to the vacancy in North Carolina’s 9^th Congressional District, which has remained vacant since the beginning of the 116^th Congress.  Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor Tom Wolf has scheduled a special election for Tuesday, May 21.  In Pennsylvania, both parties will choose their nominees at state conventions, similar to what took place in the special election race that ultimately went to Democrat Conor Lamb last year. In North Carolina, the parties will select their candidates via primaries. For the special election in the 3^rd district, Governor Roy Cooper has set Tuesday, April 30 as primary day, with a runoff to take place on Tuesday, July 9 if necessary. Candidates must secure 30 percent of the vote in the primaries in order to avoid a runoff. Should candidates in both primaries reach the magic number of 30 percent on April 30, then the general election will take place on Tuesday, July 9.  If a runoff takes place, the general election will take place on Tuesday, September 10. Cooper has yet to select dates for the special election in the 9^th district.  It looks like the open seats in North Carolina will remain vacant for quite some time.

Special elections have obviously given Republicans a bit of heartburn over the past two years; with Republicans having to pour money into races that they would run away with in a regularly scheduled election.  In spite of all the excitement related to several of the special elections, only one special election resulted in a party switch.  Following Congressman Tim Murphy’s resignation, which inevitably came after it became public that he encouraged his mistress to have an abortion, both parties selected nominees to face off in a special election on March 13, 2018.  Murphy had run unopposed in 2016 and President Trump carried the district with 60 percent of the vote so on paper, the race should have gone to the Republican.  A redistricting battle took place simultaneously with the special election, which meant that whoever won the special election would have to run for a full term in a different district just months later.  Redistricting drew the home of Republican candidate Rick Saccone into the newly drawn 14^th District while Democratic candidate Conor Lamb’s home ended up in the newly drawn 17^th District, a significantly more Democratic district than its predecessor, the old 12^th District.  Lamb ended up narrowly defeating Saccone, who vowed to run in the new 14^th District.  When the general election came around, Lamb ended up easily beating Republican Keith Rothfus, who represented the much more Republican 12^th District prior to redistricting.  Saccone did not make it to the general election; he lost in the Republican primary to State Senator Guy Reschenthaler, a much more formidable candidate.  Reschenthaler won his general election race by double digits.

Republicans hope that history does not repeat itself.  Even if Democrats do win one or two of the special elections, the new members will find themselves among the most endangered Democrats when the general election comes around.  Still, Republicans probably would prefer not to have to worry about these races at all; since they have a lot of other priorities to worry about, such as making sure that President Trump wins re-election, Republicans keep control of the Senate, and Republicans take back the House from the radical left. 

In addition to the special election in North Carolina’s 3^rd Congressional District, a special election will take place in North Carolina’s 9^th Congressional District.  Initially, the results in the Charlotte area district served as one of the few bright spots in the 2018 election when it came to the House races.  The race became unexpectedly competitive when sitting Congressman Robert Pittenger lost the Republican primary to Mark Harris.  Many thought Harris’s comments about how wives should submit to their husbands would hurt him in the general election but the initial election returns appeared to prove that theory wrong.  Harris beat Democrat Dan McCready by 905 votes. 

A few weeks after the election, the North Carolina Board of Elections refused to certify the election results, citing widespread appearances of fraud.  Specifically, a shady political operative appears to have collected absentee ballots and forged signatures on absentee ballots.  After a long three months, the North Carolina Board of Elections voted to hold a new election.

Former Congressman Pittenger and Former Governor Pat McCrory, as well as Harris himself have already declined to run in the special election; leaving the Republican primary field wide open.  As for the Democrats, McCready has already declared his intention to run again.  Of all the special elections that will take place this year, the race in North Carolina’s 9^th Congressional District looks like the most likely to result in a Democratic victory.  President Trump won the district in 2016 with 54 percent of the vote.  The Democrats picked up one district where President Trump did better, New York’s 22^nd Congressional District.  So a victory in North Carolina’s 9^th District would not come as a shock.  But as with all of the other districts represented by Democrats that President Trump carried in 2016, North Carolina’s 9^th Congressional district will surely end up at the top of the list of Republican targets in 2020 if it goes blue in the special election. 

As for the state legislative races, the most closely watched elections will take place in Virginia.  Republicans hold razor-thin majorities in both the Senate and the House of Delegates.  Without the Republican majorities, the barbaric “Repeal Act” would have become law.  To paraphrase The Beatles, it looks like the Democrats will have a little help from their friends when it comes to the races in the House of Delegates.  Their friends in the judicial branch have declared the map of House districts unconstitutional, leading to a new map.  As for the Senate races, Republicans have to defend four seats in districts carried by Hillary Clinton.  Republicans cannot afford to lose a single seat because they have a razor thin majority of one seat in both chambers.

The three gubernatorial races this year will take place in deep red states; Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi.  Two of the three races will feature incumbents, while Mississippi’s Republican Governor cannot run for re-election due to term limits.  Kentucky has a Republican governor running for re-election while Louisiana has a Democratic governor running for a second term.  Two of the three gubernatorial elections will take place on November 5, the first Tuesday in November, when most elections take place.  However, Louisiana does things a little bit differently.  A “jungle primary,” where all gubernatorial candidates will run together on the same ticket, will take place on Saturday, October 12.  Should incumbent Governor John Bel Edwards or any other candidate receive 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will not take place.  However, should no candidate reach 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will take place on Saturday, November 16.

A good night for Republicans would entail sweeping all three governorships and maintaining control of both houses of the Virginia state legislature.  While Republicans should not have trouble winning the governors’ races in any of those states, several other factors besides the states’ partisan tilts may influence how the races turn out.  In Kentucky, Governor Matt Bevin has an abysmal approval rating; the most recent polling pegs his support in the mid 30s.  In Mississippi, the Democrats’ dream candidate has decided to throw his hat into the race.  Attorney General Jim Hood has won statewide elections several times, and does not have to face an incumbent. Even if Hood won the popular vote, he cannot win the governorship without winning a majority of the state’s House districts.  Currently, Republicans hold a 67-55 edge in the Mississippi House of Representatives.

Even if Democrats swept all three gubernatorial races, they would still have to deal with Republican legislatures; unless Republicans have an absolutely dreadful night.  Without further ado, take a look at the Election 2019 rubric I have created.

 

Grade	State Races	Congressional Races
A	-Republicans sweep all three governorships -Republicans maintain control of both houses of the Virginia legislature	-Republicans sweep all three special Congressional elections
B	-Republicans win two of the three governorships, leaving no net change in the number of governorships -Republicans maintain control of both houses of the Virginia legislature	-Republicans win two of the three special Congressional elections
C	-Republicans win one of the three governorships, giving Democrats a net gain of one seat -Republicans lose control of one house of the Virginia legislature	-Republicans win one of the three special Congressional elections
F	-Republicans lose all three governorships -Republicans lose control of both houses of the Virginia legislature	-Republicans lose all three special Congressional elections

For the most part, the 2019 elections will take place almost exactly one year before the 2020 Presidential Election.  In the past, off-year elections have provided little insight as to what would end up happening in the Presidential election the following year.  In 2003, every single governorship changed hands; with Republicans replacing Democratic governors in Kentucky and Mississippi and a Democrat replacing a Republican governor in Louisiana.  President George W. Bush swept all three states in his 2004 re-election bid the following year.  In 2007, Kentucky elected a Democratic governor while Louisiana elected a Republican governor.  Republican candidate John McCain swept all three states in 2008.  In 2011, none of the governorships changed parties.  In the Virginia elections that took place that year, Republicans picked up two seats; effectively giving them control of the Senate with a 50-50 tie.  While that may have given Republicans hope of carrying Virginia in 2012, that did not pan out.  In 2015, Kentucky switched from a Democratic governor to a Republican governor while Louisiana elected a Democratic governor.  Once again, President Trump swept all three states in 2016.  In other words, the Democrats should not let victories in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi give them the idea that they have any chance of carrying those states in 2020.  At the same time, maintaining control of the Virginia legislature will not guarantee President Trump a victory there in 2020. 

For more information on the 2019 races, check out my newly created “2019 Political Calendar,” which I will continue to update as I receive more information.  Check back soon for a 2020 Political Calendar.