UPDATED: Top 10 House Republicans Worthy of a Primary Challenge

A couple of developments over the past month have required me to make some revisions to my list of the Top 10 House Republicans Worthy of a Primary Challenge.  Specifically, two of the people on the list have announced that they do not intend to seek re-election as Republicans next year.  I created the list by using a system similar to the proposed RAISE Act, which would award points to potential immigrants based on a variety of factors including their ability to speak English and their level of education.  In my system, Republican members of Congress receive points based on their decisions to support legislation and/or ideas harmful to the conservative movement.  My formula gave Republicans 20 points for calling for President Trump’s impeachment, 15 points for voting for the Equality Act, ten points for voting against the National Emergency, ten points for voting against wall funding, ten points for scandal-plagued incumbents, five points for voting to condemn the Trump administration’s support for scrapping Obamacare, five points for voting against Kate’s Law, five points for calling for an increase on the gas tax, five points for signing a discharge petition that would have forced a House vote on a variety of immigration proposals including an amnesty, five points for writing a letter to Speaker Paul Ryan urging him to create a legislative fix for DACA, five points for voting against the Goodlatte Bill, and five points for voting for the Dream and Promise Act, which would give amnesty to 2.5 million illegal immigrants while doing nothing to address the border crisis. I gave Republicans representing blue or purple districts that President Trump won with less than 50 percent of the vote the benefit of the doubt by subtracting 25 points from their scores while I gave Republicans representing districts that President Trump won with 50 and 55 percent of the vote a little slack by subtracting five points from their scores.   Take a look at the list as it appeared one month ago:

Top 10 House Republicans worthy of a primary challenge:

1.      Justin Amash, MI-3 (45)

2.      Elise Stefanik, NY-21 (40)

3.      Fred Upton, MI-6 (40)

4.      Tom Reed, NY-23 (25)

5.      Greg Walden, OR-2 (25)

6.      Blue District Republicans (Fitzpatrick, Hurd-25)

7.      Chris Collins, NY-27 (20)

8.      Chris Smith, NJ-4 (15)

9.      Susan Brooks, IN-5 (15)

10.  Dan Newhouse, WA-4 (15)

Congresswoman Susan Brooks has announced that she will not run for re-election while Justin Amash has announced his departure from the Republican Party; making him the lone independent in the 116^th Congress. Amash has announced his decision to run for re-election as an independent; I obviously believe that the voters in Michigan’s 3^rd Congressional District should select whoever emerges victorious from the Republican primary over Amash and the Democrat. With Amash out of the picture, no Republican member of Congress has called for the impeachment of President Trump; meaning that I can remove that from my criteria.

My revised formula will give 20 points to scandal-plagued incumbents, 15 points to Republicans who voted for the Equality Act, ten points for voting against the National Emergency, ten points to Republicans who voted against wall funding, five points to Republicans who voted to condemn the Trump administration’s support for scrapping Obamacare, five points to Republicans who calling for an increase on the gas tax, five points for signing a discharge petition that would have forced a House vote on a variety of immigration proposals including an amnesty, five points for writing a letter to Speaker Paul Ryan urging him to create a legislative fix for DACA, five points for voting against the Goodlatte Bill, and five points for voting for the Dream and Promise Act, which would give amnesty to 2.5 million illegal immigrants while doing nothing to address the border crisis.  Take a look at the new list, which I have put into a chart below containing their scores, President Trump’s margin of victory or defeat in their districts, the probability of the member losing his or her primary, and the impact of a primary defeat on the general election. I have also included each member’s margin of victory in 2018; with purple highlighting a pathetic performance in 2018.

Name	District	Score	Trump Margin in District	2018 Re-Election Margin	Probability of Losing Primary	Impact of Primary Loss on General Election
Fred Upton	MI-6	40	+8.4	+4.5	Medium	Medium
Elise Stefanik	NY-21	40	+13.9	+13.7	Low	Medium
Greg Walden	OR-2	25	+20.1	+16.9	Low	Minimal
Will Hurd	TX-23	25	-3.4	+0.5	Low	Negative
Brian Fitzpatrick	PA-1	25	-2.0	+2.6	Low	Negative
Chris Collins	NY-27	25	+24.5	+0.3	High	Positive
Tom Reed	NY-23	25	+14.8	+8.4	Low	Medium
Duncan Hunter	CA-50	15	+15.0	+3.4	High	Positive
Dan Newhouse	WA-4	15	+22.8	+25.6	Low	Minimal
Chris Smith	NJ-4	15	+14.8	+12.3	Low	Minimal

Fred Upton has an absolutely atrocious voting record when it comes to immigration.  He appears to want the border wide open; as he voted against wall funding, voted against President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency, signed the letter to Speaker Ryan, signed the discharge petition, voted against the Goodlatte Bill, and voted the Dream and Promise Act. As an added bonus, he voted with Democrats to condemn the Trump administration’s support for a legal challenge to Obamacare. As he will have reached the ripe old age of 67 by Election Day, retirement seems more likely than a primary challenge at this point. 

Elise Stefanik voted for the Equality Act, voted against the President’s declaration of a national emergency, voted with Democrats to express disapproval of the Trump administration’s support for a legal challenge to Obamacare, signed the discharge petition, and voted against the Goodlatte Bill. Fortunately, she had enough common sense not to vote for the “Dream and Promise Act.”  While she ends up with a score of 40 points, she seems unlikely to face a primary challenger at this point.  Stefanik has already announced her intention to run for re-election.

Greg Walden represents the only Republican district in Oregon and yet his voting record suggests that he represents a liberal district in Massachusetts or Silicon Valley.  Walden voted for the Equality Act in addition to voting against the National Emergency; giving him a score of 25. He does not get a five-point (or 25-point benefit of the doubt) because his district voted solidly Republican in 2016.   

I tried to give the three blue district Republicans the benefit of the doubt since they have to run in districts that Hillary won (although she won with less than 50 percent of the vote in all of them).  Even taking that into account by subtracting 25 points from their scores, Will Hurd and Brian Fitzpatrick still end up with scores of 25.  Hurd represents a district that straddles the border with Mexico while Fitzpatrick represents one of the 100 wealtheist Congressional districts in the United States.  John Katko, who represents Syracuse, just barely missed out on a spot in the top ten; earning a score of ten points. For Hurd and Fitzpatrick, a defeat in the general election seems more likely than a defeat in the primary.  Hurd only held on by a hair in 2018, even though polling showed him crushing his Democratic opponent. 

Tom Reed represents the district that I was born in and that my parents lived and worked in for most of their lives. My personal attachment to his district does not give him a get-out-of-jail free card when it comes to his voting record. In addition to supporting the Equality Act, Reed voted against the Goodlatte Bill, voted with liberals on Obamacare, and signed the discharge petition.  Reed earned a score of 25 based on my formula and he seems unlikely to lose to a primary challenger or even draw one in the first place. 

Chris Collins barely won re-election in the reddest district in New York State last fall. Of all of the people on this list, he probably faces the second highest chance of losing to a primary challenger.  Republicans would probably have a better chance of holding onto the seat if he opts not to run for re-election.  In addition to the cloud of scandal that hangs over Collins’ head, his support for increasing the gas tax and his signature of the discharge petition give him a score of 20. Collins already has a primary challenger and he might opt to bow out to avoid such a humiliating defeat. 

The only new addition to the list, Duncan Hunter, finds himself in a similar situation as Collins. With a cloud of indictment over his head, Hunter only won re-election by three points in 2018.  Since Election Day 2018, the situation has only gotten worse for Hunter.  His wife pleaded guilty to a corruption count after he had thrown her under the bus.  Prosecutors also allege Hunter used campaign funds for extramarital affairs.  It sounds like he really loves his wife. To those who think that a scandal-plagued Republican in a red district can still prevail in a general election, I have two words for you: Bill Jefferson. No year better epitomized the idea of a “blue wave” than 2008. Democrats picked up nine seats in the Senate and picked up 21 House seats as President Obama received more than 350 votes in the Electoral College. However, despite this blue wave, a scandal-plagued Democrat representing a deep-blue district lost his re-election bid. Just weeks after President Obama won his district by a margin of 50 points, Louisiana Democrat Bill Jefferson lost to Republican Joseph Cao in a runoff. The same could easily happen in Hunter’s district, which only voted for President Trump by 15 points. In California, unlike in all of the other states mentioned here, all candidates will run on the same ticket in the primary; regardless of party.  The top two candidates will advance to a general election.  In a district like Hunter’s, two Republicans could end up advancing into the general.  In that case, it might make more sense to vote for the candidate who has absolutely no possibility of having to resign. 

Like Walden and Collins, Dan Newhouse represents the most Republican district in his state.  Newhouse represents Washington’s 4^th Congressional District, which President Trump won with more than 55 percent of the vote. Yet he still voted against the Goodlatte Bill, signed the letter to Speaker Ryan, and voted for the “Dream and Promise Act.” While Newhouse decided not to sign the discharge petition, he only made that decision because House Leadership committed to “bring forward an immigration bill that address agriculture’s labor needs before the August district work period.” As I asked at the time, “did it ever occur to Rep. Newhouse that agriculture’s labor needs directly correlate with the Democratic Party’s voting needs?”    

New Jersey Congressman Chris Smith also earned a score of 20. While Smith deserves a lot of credit for all of his work on behalf of the pro-life movement during his many years in Congress, he has supported legislation that would enable the Democrats to develop a permanent electoral stranglehold on the pro-life movement; namely the “Dream and Promise Act.” In addition, Smith signed the letter to Paul Ryan and sided with Democrats on the Obamacare debate. 

Addition: Duncan Hunter

Deletions: Justin Amash, Susan Brooks