Beyond 2020: Visions of a Post-Trump America

While the 2020 Presidential Election has not even taken place yet, I have already given some thought to who I want representing the Republican Party in the 2024 Presidential Election. I obviously hope President Trump wins re-election in 2020; which would make him ineligible for re-election in 2024 due to term limits. If he managed to lose re-election in 2020, the establishment and #NeverTrumpers will surely argue that the Republican Party must forget about what happened in 2016 and act on the conclusions of the “autopsy” that the party released following its defeat in the 2012 Presidential Election. Regardless of what happens in 2020, I think I have already found the perfect candidate to represent the Republican Party in 2024 and I feel quite confident that many of my fellow conservatives will agree with me.

The candidates in the 2024 Presidential Election will have a different electoral map to work with than the candidates in the 2020 Presidential Election. The post-2020 electoral map will reflect the results of the 2020 census. States with high rates of population growth will see an increase in their representation in Congress and the Electoral College while those states with slower rates of population growth will see their representation in the House of Representatives and the Electoral College decrease.

Following the 2020 census, it seems certain that Florida will boast the third-highest number of Electoral College votes of all 50 states.  Currently, New York and Florida both have 29 electoral votes. It looks like after the 2020 census, Florida will likely have 31 electoral votes while New York will likely have 27 electoral votes. 

Establishment Republicans understood the importance of carrying Florida in 2016. That might explain why they worked so hard to ensure that one of its native sons received the Republican Party’s nomination in 2016. The establishment rallied around the state’s former Governor, Jeb Bush. On paper, Bush seemed like the ideal candidate; as a two-term governor of a swing state. As the brother of former President George W. Bush, Bush had to deal with the baggage of his brother; who left office very unpopular. Bush also seemed out of touch with the wishes of the party’s base; his description of illegal immigration as an “act of love” definitely confirmed that suspicion. Also, Bush, like the Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton seemed an awful lot like the candidate of “yesterday,” as the other Floridian in the race, Senator Marco Rubio, might say.

Rubio actually announced his presidential bid two months before Bush. Immediately following the Republicans’ loss in 2012, Rubio seemed like he might have had what it takes to win the Republican nomination. Rubio, a hero of the Tea Party movement, decided to challenge establishment favorite Charlie Crist in the Republican primary for an open Senate seat in 2010.  Crist decided to withdraw from the Republican primary and run as an independent for the Republican-held seat. Rubio won a three-way race with 49 percent of the vote. Rubio alienated many conservatives by supporting the “Gang of Eight” amnesty bill. His presidential campaign never really gained steam and it quickly came to an end when he lost the primary in his home state to President Trump.

In 2018, Florida Republicans had to play defense in the gubernatorial election and had an opportunity to play offense in the Senate election. Term-limited Republican Governor Rick Scott had high approval ratings, making it seem probable that Republicans would win the governorship for the sixth time in a row. The popular Scott decided to challenge three-term Democratic Senator Bill Nelson. However, the President’s party tends to lose seats in the first midterm election; giving the Democrats hope of successfully defending Nelson’s Senate seat while retaining control of the top job in Tallahassee.  

While the establishment rallied around Agriculture Commissioner and former Congressman Adam Putnam, President Trump supported Congressman Ron DeSantis, an outspoken supporter of his. The Democrats had an even more crowded field that included former Congresswoman Gwen Graham, the establishment favorite, and the Bernie Sanders-backed Mayor of Tallahassee Andrew Gillum. Gillum and DeSantis won their respective primaries; to the chagrin of the establishments of both parties.

One day after securing the Republican nomination, DeSantis appeared on Fox News, where he touted Florida’s strong economy and stressed that “we cannot afford to monkey this up” by embracing Gillum, who promised to impose socialism on the Sunshine State. The media attempted to portray the phrase “monkey this up” as a racist dog whistle against the African-American Gillum but their efforts did not pay off. DeSantis won the Florida gubernatorial election; albeit by a very narrow margin. Many in the minority community disagreed with the media and Gillum’s characterization of DeSantis as a racist. Exit polling found that DeSantis received 14 percent of the black vote and 44 percent of the Latino vote. In the event of a DeSantis presidential bid, the mainstream media will surely rejoice in bringing up the “monkey this up” comment as an effort to smear DeSantis as a racist.

DeSantis saved Florida from socialism and he will likely have the opportunity to save the United States from socialism in 2024; especially if he wins re-election in 2022. Even if Biden won the Democratic nomination and the presidency, it seems unlikely that he would run for a second term. The Democrats will probably nominate a socialist in 2024 regardless what happens in 2020 but the failure of a more moderate candidate like Biden to win in 2020 will likely cause some in the Democratic Party to claim that not embracing socialism enough cost them the White House.

In response to DeSantis’s support for a bill that would allow teachers to carry firearms, Ann Coulter tweeted out “I hope this country survives long enough for Ron DeSantis to be president.” As an article in American Greatness points out, “Governor DeSantis’s tenure thus far has given us a good idea of what the presidency of Donald Trump would look like, if not for three factors: if the Democrats did not viciously hate Trump and everything he stands for; if the media were fair in its coverage and held an objective viewpoint towards his actions; and if Republicans in the legislature were actually willing to work with him.”

After just months in office, the Florida legislature managed to do something that the United States Congress has failed to do by defunding sanctuary cities; an initiative DeSantis signed into law.  The successful passage of this “America first” legislation in Florida also illustrates the benefits of term limits. Florida limits members of its House of Representatives to four two-year terms and Senators to two four-year terms. Many Republicans in Washington represent the worst aspect of the old Republican Party that looks the other way on violations of immigration law because their donors want cheap labor.

At this point, it looks like term limits have little chance of becoming reality by the 2024 Presidential Election. Fortunately, Republicans have several opportunities to send fresh faces to both houses of Congress in the next three election cycles as many Republicans decide to retire. Republicans can also send some new blood to Congress by ousting Democratic incumbents; which they failed to do in any of the House races in 2018.  While Republicans did achieve a net gain of two Senate seats on Election Day 2018 by defeating four incumbent Democratic Senators while losing two of their own seats, they failed to unseat several incumbent Senate Democrats in states carried by President Trump in 2016; specifically, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wisconsin. All of those Senators will have to stand for re-election in 2024.  Besides Alabama and Michigan, few pickup opportunities for Republicans exist in the next two election cycles. In addition to the sparse opportunities to play offense in Senate races, Republicans will also have to play defense in a handful of races as well.

DeSantis’s desirability as a candidate will likely hinge on the results of the 2022 gubernatorial election in Florida.  Keeping the gubernatorial seat in the hands of the same party for 28 years seems like an arduous task in a swing state. Based on his poll numbers right now, DeSantis looks like a shoo-in for re-election. Most of the other Republican governors with sky-high approval ratings come from deep blue states; therefore, they do not exactly govern as conservatives.

Should DeSantis fail to win re-election, Texas Governor Greg Abbott could emerge as the most qualified candidate to run for President and carry on the Trump legacy. I highlighted Abbott’s credentials in my very first blog post ever. Abbott may or may not choose to run for a third term as governor in 2022 but if he did win the presidency, he would have a worthy successor in the form of Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick. Like Florida, Texas will likely see an increase in electoral votes and representation following the 2020 census; with some projections predicting the state will have as many as 41 electoral votes. Having a Texan at the top of the ticket will definitely help Republicans capture those electoral votes; which they will most certainly need if they want to win the 2024 Presidential Election.

Vice President Mike Pence might seem like a good choice to succeed President Trump but remember what happened the last time Americans sent a Republican President’s VP to the White House to continue the legacy of his predecessor. Americans elevated Reagan’s Vice President, George H.W. Bush, to the position of Commander-in-Chief in 1988; hoping that he would serve as a third term of “the Great Communicator.” In many ways, that did not happen. Shortly after taking office, Bush carried out what conservative activist Richard Viguerie described as an “Inauguration Day Massacre,” where the new Bush administration carried out a “well-planned agenda to replace conservatives (be they Bush supporters or not) with Establishment Republicans.” According to Viguerie, “the result of the ‘Inauguration Day Massacre’ firings were that with no conservatives left to say ‘hey, wait a minute,’ Bush quickly walked away from conservative principles in a long list of policies and decisions.”

Even if Americans re-elect President Trump in 2020 and send DeSantis to the White House in 2024, that does not necessarily insulate Republicans from pain at the ballot box in 2022. Remember that Reagan experienced the “sixth-year itch” that has given most of the recent two-term Presidents heartburn. Republicans lost control of the Senate in 1986 after controlling it for the first six years of Reagan’s presidency. With that in mind, Republicans would find themselves lucky to even maintain control of the Senate at all for the last two years of an eight-year Trump presidency.

Obviously, we have a long way to go before the 2024 Presidential Election but failure to think in the long term has obviously caused many of the major political problems plaguing the country to this day. Republicans obviously did not have a plan for “Life After Bush” in 2008 and the party cannot make that same mistake again. Republicans must make sure that by the time 2024 rolls around, they have someone ready to lead the next generation of the conservative movement regardless of what happens in 2020. As of right now, Ron DeSantis looks like the candidate who can do just that.