Happy Election Day

The 2019 calendar probably lists Election Day as Tuesday, November 5.  While a handful of statewide elections may take place on that date, none of them will have any consequences for the balance of power in Washington, D.C.  Two special elections in North Carolina, both of which will take place later today, will.

Currently, North Carolina’s Congressional delegation has two vacancies.  One of the vacancies popped up in February when longtime Republican Congressman Walter Jones of North Carolina’s 3^rd Congressional District died. President Trump won his district by nearly 25 points in 2016 so losing the seat would definitely embarrass Republicans.

Republicans may have a harder time holding onto the other open seat, North Carolina’s 9^th Congressional District. Republican Mark Harris won the seat but the North Carolina Board of Elections refused to certify the results because of allegations of fraud. Eventually, the Board of Elections got around to scheduling a new election. Democrats worked really hard to flip the seat from red to blue in the 2018 election and their nominee in the last election, Dan McCready, hopes to emerge victorious in tonight’s do-over.

In contrast to the ruby red district on the North Carolina coast that Jones represented, Democrats probably feel somewhat confident about their prospects in the 9^th District, based in the Charlotte suburbs. While President Trump won the district by nearly 12 points in 2016, Democrats managed to win in a few districts where President Trump receive roughly the same share of the vote during the 2018 midterms.

President Trump and national Republicans have decided to pull out all the stops to make sure that Republican Dan Bishop wins the seat previously held by Republican Robert Pittenger, whom Harris defeated in the Republican primary last year. Both President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence visited the district Monday; hoping their presence there will make sure that the base turns out. As Republicans do their best to ensure Bishop wins the special election, Hollywood has embraced McCready; using social media to convince left-wingers in North Carolina to vote for McCready. Apparently, the geniuses in Hollywood do not remember what happened the last time they went in all in on a special election candidate.  In spite of all the money Hollywood poured into Jon Ossoff, the Democratic candidate in a district that President Trump only narrowly carried in 2016, he still ended up losing the special election.

So far, Republicans have only lost one of the special elections that have taken place in Republican-held congressional districts during the Trump administration; excluding the special elections that took place concurrently with the general election. President Trump won all of the districts where special elections took place but in all but one case, the Democratic candidate in the special election had a better showing than Hillary Clinton in 2016. The only special election that Republicans lost took place in Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District; a district that President Trump carried with 58 percent of the vote. The victor, Conor Lamb, only represented the district for eight months. Court-ordered redistricting dramatically altered the districts in western Pennsylvania; moving Lamb’s house out of the 18^th District, renumbered the 14^th District, and making it even safer for Republicans. In the 2018 election, Lamb had the luxury of running in a newly drawn district that President Trump carried with a mere plurality of the vote and went onto beat the incumbent Republican Congressman by double digits. The new 14^th District went Republican in the 2018 election but Lamb’s victory in the new 17^th District effectively canceled out the Republican win.

After the special elections taking place today, Republicans will have to defend at least two more seats in both chambers of Congress in the near future. Congressman Sean Duffy of Wisconsin’s 7^th Congressional District announced his intention to resign from Congress effective September 23^rd as a result of the upcoming birth of his ninth child; who suffers from a heart condition. Duffy’s reason for leaving contrasts nicely with the circumstances that caused the resignation of several of his former colleagues. While the first set of resignations that triggered special elections occurred because the members went on to take positions in the Trump administration, many of the remaining Republican Congressmen who resigned during President Trump’s first two years in office. Pro-life Congressman Tim Murphy of Pennsylvania resigned after the public became aware that he tried to get his mistress to have an abortion. Another Pennsylvania Congressman, Pat Meehan, had to resign because of fallout from the #MeToo scandal, as did Arizona Congressman Trent Franks.

The special election in Duffy’s district will likely take place at some point next year.  President Trump carried Duffy’s district with nearly 58 percent of the vote but Lamb’s upset victory last year proves that Democrats can win in what looks like a safe seat on paper given the right candidate.

All of these special elections illustrate the importance of a cushion. Right now, all of the vacancies that have occurred or will occur do not have an impact on who holds the Speaker’s gavel because the Democrats have a strong majority.  Unlike in the Senate, where the Governor gets to appoint a replacement right away, seats in the House of Representatives remain unfilled until a special election takes place. In other words, if Republicans want a majority in the House of Representatives, they should probably shoot for a net gain of 20-25 seats rather than just the bare minimum; so they have a cushion in case more Republicans in Congress decide to resign or die. Currently, Republicans need a net gain of 19 seats to retake control of the House.  That number could go up depending on the results of tonight’s special elections.

A cushion doesn’t necessarily matter when it comes to maintaining control of the Senate; at least not right now. In retrospect, the results of last year’s Georgia gubernatorial election seem very consequential; since the Governor of Georgia will have to appoint a replacement for resigning Senator Johnny Isakson at the beginning of next year. Republican Brian Kemp ended up narrowly winning the gubernatorial election against liberal Democrat Stacey Abrams; who still refuses to see Kemp as the legitimate winner of the election. Had Abrams won the election, the Republicans’ majority in the Senate would shrink from 53 to 52; as she would appoint a Democrat to take Isakson’s place until the general election. Fortunately, the Republican won, and to the victor goes the spoils. Kemp will appoint a replacement to serve until the regularly scheduled general election; which will take place concurrently with the 2020 Presidential Election. The appointed Senator may or may not run in the special election. The winner of the special election will only serve for two years before he or she will have to run again in 2022 for a full six-year term.

The Georgia Senate special election will also take place concurrently with a regularly scheduled election for the state’s other Senate seat; currently held by Republican David Perdue. History shows that the same party will likely win both of the Senate elections.  Not since the 1960s has a so-called “double-barrel” Senate election resulted in one party winning one of the seats and the other party winning the other.

Going back to the special elections taking place today, the media have tried to make the election in North Carolina’s 9^th Congressional District a make-or-break moment for President Trump. While it would obviously benefit President Trump to win the race, losing the race does not indicate the upcoming death of the Republican Party as much as the media wants the American people to think. In 2011, Democratic Congressman Anthony Weiner had to resign because the public became aware of his penchant for sexting underage girls. President Obama carried Weiner’s district, numbered as the 9^th District, with 55 percent of the vote in 2008; President Trump received about the same share of the vote in NC-9. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer once represented the 9^th District; which had become more Republican over time thanks to its large orthodox Jewish population. Republican Robert Turner won the special election to replace Weiner, only for the legislature to chop up the district during redistricting. President Obama suffered an even more embarrassing special election loss in 2010, when Republican Charles Djou won a special election in Hawaii’s 1^st Congressional District; which President Obama carried with 70 percent of the vote two years earlier. The use of a jungle primary, where all candidates ran together on the same ballot regardless of party, likely contributed to the stunning upset.  Six months later, Djou lost his bid for a full term in the general election. 

The same thing would almost definitely happen if Democrats managed to win the special election in North Carolina’s 3^rd Congressional District and would probably happen if Democrats win the special election in North Carolina’s 9^th Congressional District.  Even though Republican wins in both of these districts will have little effect on the balance of power in the 116^th Congress, victories there will save them a lot of headaches as they seek to retire Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House. Losing one or both of the special elections will only increase the number of seats that Republicans need to take back the House.

For information on the results of today’s elections, check out my political calendar; which I will update to reflect the results. The New York Times will likely have a more detailed breakdown of the results in both districts. Looking at the political calendar for the rest of the year, three ruby red states have gubernatorial elections coming up.  Voters in Kentucky and Mississippi will select their next governor on Tuesday, November 5^th but voters in Louisiana will likely have to go to the polls at least twice between now and Thanksgiving.  On Saturday, October 12, a jungle primary will take place in Louisiana; where all candidates will run together on the same ballot regardless of party. Unlike what happened in the special election in Hawaii nearly a decade ago, Louisiana law requires a candidate to receive 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff.  If no candidate receives 50 percent of the vote on October 12, a runoff will take place on Saturday, November 16; where the two candidates who received the highest shares of the vote in the jungle primary will face off head-to-head.

In addition to the gubernatorial elections, a series of state legislative elections will also take place; most notably in Virginia, where every seat in both houses of the Virginia legislature has a spot on the ballot. While these elections will have an enormous impact on Virginia politics, they will not have any impact on national politics; at least until the next round of redistricting comes up. Should Democrats manage to win control of both chambers of the state legislature, they will likely work with the Democratic governor to create a map of congressional districts that maximizes the number of safe seats for the Democrats.

For right now, political junkies like myself will focus on the elections in North Carolina. To my readers in these two North Carolina districts, happy Election Day; make sure to vote to “Keep America Great.”