Political Junkie

In my previous two blog posts, I have laid out the best pickup opportunities in the House of Representatives for both Republicans and Democrats.   I would like to slightly revise my list of the top 10 most likely Republican House pickups, in light of a new poll from New Jersey ’s 5 th Congressional district.   An internal poll conducted on behalf of Republican John McCann found McCann trailing incumbent Democrat Josh Gottheimer by nine points.   A previous internal poll for McCann showed him beating Gottheimer by three points.   Averaging out the two polls would give Gottheimer a lead of three points.   In light of this, I would rate both of the Nevada Congressional districts that I had on my list as slightly more likely pickup opportunities for Republicans and move New Jersey’s 5 th Congressional District to the tenth most likely pickup opportunity for Republicans.   President Trump has a very good approval rating in Nevada considering the fact that...

With less than two weeks to go until Election Day, most pundits predict that the Democrats will retake control of the House of Representatives. CNN predicts that the Democrats will pick up 32 seats, eight more than the bare minority needed to retake control of the House of Representatives; assuming that Republicans flip at least one of the districts included on my list of the Top 10 Most Likely Republican House Pickups .   Five Thirty Eight predicts that Democrats have a 6 in 7 chance of retaking control of the House.   Offering a s lightly less optimistic vision for the Democrats, Dave Wassserman of The Cook Political Report predicted that Democrats have a 70 to 75 percent chance of taking the House. If they want to have any chance whatsoever of taking the House, the Democrats will have to sweep the following ten races.   As of right now, they look almost certain to flip at least three seats from red to blue. Republicans probably could manage a...

With the midterm elections less than two weeks away, all of the talking heads have spent most of their time obsessing about just how many seats the Democrats will pick up in the House of Representatives and how big of a “blue wave” will sweep across the United States of America.   While the Democrats definitely have more pickup opportunities in the House than Republicans, the Republicans have a few as well.   Picking up a handful or most of the ten seats listed below may insulate Republicans from the effect of a “blue wave.”   The website Five Thirty-Eight has classified all but two of the seats listed below as “highly competitive” based on its “ Atlas of Redistricting ” but the new map of Pennsylvania districts came out after the creation of the “Atlas of Redistricting,” therefore, the atlas does not contain an accurate description of the current districts.  The “Atlas of Redistricting” labels California ’s 24 th Congressional District as “usually Democratic” ...

Over the past several weeks, prominent conservative radio and TV personalities have warned America what would happen in the event that the Democrats retake control of the House of Representatives.   Let’s take a look at some of their warnings, what they got right, and what they may have left out. No one has beaten the drum harder than Sean Hannity,   who has spent the   past several months warning the viewers of his television show about the Democrats’ plans of action should they retake the House of Representatives.   Item number one on their agenda: rescind the tax cuts. As Hannity would say, “they want their crumbs back.” That’s a reference to House Minority Leader and potential House Speaker Nancy Pelosi slamming the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act as a giveaway to the wealthy with mere “crumbs” for the middle class. While the Democratic leadership has attempted to put muzzles on the most outspoken members of their party, it has become quite clear that the ...

Stacey Abrams, Democratic candidate for Governor of Georgia , talked about how the “blue wave” that she predicts will sweep across the nation in the upcoming midterm lwill include “those who are documented and undocumented.”   Although Abrams probably did not mean to say that, her Freudian slip may have accidentally revealed the Democrats’ long-term plan for securing electoral victories at the state and national level. When talking about the “Kanye effect” in my previous blog post, I discussed an interactive map put together by The New York Times called “Presidential Math: Demographics and Immigration Reform.”   The Times, in collaboration with the political website “Five Thirty-Eight” put together the interactive map with the 2012 Presidential election in the rearview mirror and amidst an immigration debate taking place on Capitol Hill in the spring of 2013.   The interactive map contained the actual electoral map for 2012 Presidential Election as well as pro...