How to Win in 2020: Get Out of Washington

Several weeks into the “impeachment inquiry” that has sucked up all of the oxygen on Capitol Hill, both sides appear to have dug in. An overwhelming majority of House Democrats have announced their support for the “impeachment inquiry” while President Trump has called for the resignation of House Intelligence Committee Chair Adam Schiff, one of the leading faces of the pro-impeachment movement. Ultimately, President Trump and the Republicans will have no luck in removing Pelosi or Schiff from office. They will continue to hold high-profile roles in the House of Representatives until January 3, 2021; when the 116^th Congress will officially come to an end.

With the 2020 Presidential Election a little over a year away, President Trump and the Republicans still have time to pursue a strategy to ensure that the impeachment nonsense and the presidential harassment will come to an end.  This strategy involves making sure that President Trump wins re-election, that Republicans maintain control of the Senate and retake control of the House of Representatives. Fortunately, it looks like President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence plan to do just that by getting out of Washington; a city where Hillary Clinton beat him by a 18-1 margin in 2016.

I had originally planned on writing a blog urging President Trump to get out of Washington more but apparently, he read my mind. Nearly a month after his previous rally in Rio Rancho, New Mexico, President Trump hit the campaign trail again this week; travelling to a state that could play a pivotal role in the 2020 Presidential Election: Minnesota.  President Trump only lost Minnesota by 1.5 points in 2016, four years after President Obama carried the state by a much larger margin. President Trump’s rally took place in Minneapolis, home to radical freshman Congresswoman Ilhan Omar. Without a spoiler candidate like Evan McMuffin on the ballot, President Trump might have an easier time securing Minnesota’s 10 electoral votes in 2020. In the 2016 Presidential Election, Hillary Clinton beat President Trump by a margin of roughly 45,000 votes. Evan McMuffin received roughly 53,000 votes.  If most of Evan McMuffin’s voters end up backing President Trump in 2016, then he might have a real shot at winning the state. However, Green Party candidate Jill Stein won roughly 37,000 votes; a lot of those voters might end up voting for Goofy Elizabeth if she ends up winning the nomination. On balance, Goofy Elizabeth’s far-left policy platforms might turn off a lot of independent voters that might vote for a candidate like Joe Biden. At this point, it looks like a potential path to victory for President Trump in Minnesota goes through the Iron Range; located in the northeastern part of the state. The Iron Range of Northern Minnesota, which includes the city of Duluth, has historically voted Democratic but like in other parts of the industrial Midwest, the Democratic share of the vote dropped dramatically from 2012 to 2016.  In Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan, President Trump winning just about everywhere else enabled him to make up for his losses in the big cities and college towns. The same thing could very well happen in Minnesota in 2020 if President Trump can perform better in the Iron Range. Picking up votes there will enable him to offset the Democratic candidate’s strength in the Twin Cities; which, as Thursday’s rally demonstrated, serve as a hub for #TheResistance in the Midwest.

On Friday, President Trump travelled to Louisiana to campaign on behalf of the Republican gubernatorial candidates. All candidates for the Louisiana gubernatorial election will appear on the ballot in a jungle primary, which will take place today. The two candidates who receive the highest share of the vote will advance to a runoff on November 16 unless one of the candidates ends up clinching 50 percent in the jungle primary. Pro-life Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards probably hopes to reach that benchmark but President Trump will do his best to make sure that Edwards fails to reach the magic number. While a Republican might not end up winning the Louisiana gubernatorial election, President Trump should have absolutely no trouble capturing Louisiana’s eight electoral votes in 2020. According to Morning Consult, the President has a net approval rating of 15 in the Pelican State; one of his highest in the nation.

Next week, President Trump will venture outside of the beltway once again to a formerly solid red state that has seen its voting patterns change because of immigration. President Trump will travel to Dallas, Texas on Thursday.  President Trump’s potential paths to the magic number of 270 electoral votes shrink dramatically with the Lone Star State’s 38 electoral votes in the Democratic column.

While President Trump worked to secure key battleground states for his re-election, Vice President Pence has begun to work on a different mission: ousting the vulnerable, pro-impeachment House Democrats. As President Trump held a rally in Minneapolis, Pence travelled to Minnesota’s 2^nd Congressional District; located in the suburbs of the Twin Cities, which furnish the votes that push Democratic candidates over the top in statewide elections. President Trump won the district by 1.5 points in 2016 and the incumbent Democrat, Angie Craig, has announced her support for an “impeachment inquiry.” The former Representative for the district, Jason Lewis, has announced his intention to run for the Senate; leaving the race to replace Craig wide open. Republicans arguably have a better target in Minnesota: the 7^th Congressional District, which President Trump won by 30 points in 2016 but Pence may end up skipping that district because its incumbent Democrat, Collin Peterson, has yet to announce his support for an impeachment inquiry. Peterson has seen his margins of victory steadily decrease in his most recent re-election bids and the Republicans have recruited a top-tier candidate to challenge him in 2020: former Lieutenant Governor and Senate President Michelle Fischbach. Even though Peterson has a moderate profile and voting record compared to the far-left Democrats that have become the face of the party, the redness of his district may finally catch up with him in 2020.

One day prior to visiting Minnesota, Pence visited Iowa’s 3^rd Congressional District; which President Trump won by a margin of 3.5 points in 2016. The incumbent first-term Democrat Cindy Axne, who only managed to secure a plurality of the vote in the 2018 election, has announced her support for an “impeachment inquiry.” Her narrow margin of victory in 2018 and President Trump’s stronger margin of victory in 2016 make her a much stronger target.  Axne, like Craig, has announced her support for an “impeachment inquiry.” David Young, the Republican Congressman she defeated in 2018, has announced his decision to run for his old seat.

Politico reports that Pence will visit “an array of battleground districts, including those held by Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin and Virginia Rep. Abigail Spanberger.” President Trump won both of their districts with a bare majority of the vote in 2016 and both Slotkin and Spanberger have announced support for the “impeachment inquiry,” apparently forgetting that they represent swing districts; not safe seats based in San Francisco or Malibu. While Slotkin does not have a Republican opponent at this point, her eventual challenger will have $175,000 to spend; as the Republican National Committee targeted Slotkin in its initial fundraising push following Pelosi’s announcement of the “impeachment inquiry.” All told, the Republican National Committee as well as President Trump’s re-election campaign raised roughly $1 million on the day Pelosi announced the “impeachment inquiry,” after sending out a series of e-mails urging President Trump’s supporters to donate to the “Official Impeachment Defense Task Force.”

While President Trump and Vice President Pence have indicated that they plan to travel around the country fighting back against the “impeachment inquiry,” team Trump can also count on outside groups to come to their defense. Reuters reports that “America First Policies, a political action group backing U.S. President Donald Trump, will launch an advertising campaign aimed at vulnerable House Democrats who support the impeachment inquiry against him.” The pro-Trump super PAC will spend $1 million on advertisements while the Republican National Committee plans to spend $2 million targeting pro-impeachment Democrats. The RNC has already released an ad targeting New York Congressman Max Rose, who represents a district President Trump won by nearly ten points in 2016, for failing to live up to his promise to focus on issues that matter to the American people in favor of pursuing investigations against President Trump.

As the rallies that have taken place over the past two nights have demonstrated, President Trump relishes trashing House Democrats over their decision to launch an “impeachment inquiry.” President Trump ultimately has no control over what House Democrats do for the remainder of the 116^th Congress.  However, he absolutely has control over how he and his campaign can spend their time and money between now and the 2020 Presidential Election.  His outside allies and the RNC have already indicated that they plan to spend money targeting the vulnerable pro-impeachment House Democrats. Spending money definitely won’t hurt President Trump or Republican Congressional candidates in the 2020 election but it won’t necessarily help them. As I have explained before, “Money Can’t Buy Everything: Especially Elections.” President Trump and the Republicans should celebrate their massive war chest but they should not rely on it alone to secure their path to victory. 

The Trump rallies, on the other hand, seemed to have a much stronger effect on the 2016 Presidential Election. In the final 72 hours leading up to the 2016 Presidential Election, then-candidate Trump held 14 rallies in ten different states. If President Trump wants to win again, he will probably have to work just as hard, if not harder, during the final 72 hours leading up to the 2020 Presidential Election. Not only did President Trump cover a lot of ground during the 2016 general election, he also met with a lot of people. According to The Gateway Pundit, President Trump spoke to nearly one million people between the beginning of August and Election Day 2016. Hillary Clinton, by contrast, only spoke to roughly 100,000 people and held half the number of events of her Republican competitor. 

President Trump has everything to gain and nothing to lose by hitting the campaign trail. Hitting the campaign trail will not only help secure his own re-election but it will also have the effect of helping Republican candidates down the ballot. Remember that in 2016, every state that supported President Trump voted for a Republican Senator while every state that voted for Hillary Clinton voted for a Democratic Senator.  In other words, President Trump will definitely have an influence on the outcome of the 35 Senate races set to take place next year.  As for the House races, President Trump can only hope to achieve the same level of success.  Last time around, President Trump won 227 of 435 Congressional Districts. If President Trump wins every single district that he carried in 2016 and the Republican House candidate wins all of those races as well, he can ensure that the architects of impeachment, Adam Schiff and Nancy Pelosi, have new titles come 2021: House Intelligence Committee Ranking Member and House Minority Leader. If and when that happens, President Trump can truly say that he has made America great again.